2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done
The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Cup Playoffs start Thursday with the first round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. It is the first of three playoff events, with the top-70 players in the FedEx Cup standings being whittled down to 50 then 30 for the TOUR Championship. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and John Rahm are the favorites this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite FedEx St. Jude Championship bets among all the golf odds offered this week. Below you’ll find the best sports betting odds available on each player.
It’s been a long week of research for me, not just for the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, but also for my bachelor party plans, as I’ll be heading off to Montreal for the rest of the week starting this Thursday. That means a gaping hole in my bank account awaits, so it’s the most important week of the year for me to have a strong betting card.
For the first time, the FedEx Cup Playoffs will kick off its first event with a limited field of just 70 players and no cut. On a short course littered with water hazards, constant wind, and unpredictable Bermuda rough, this tournament has proven to be prone to volatility. So I’m expecting a wild week of PGA TOUR action, as I lock in my FedEx St. Jude Championship bets.
BEST SPORTSBOOK PROMO CODES FOR GOLF BETTING
HOW I BUILT MY FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD
I’m embracing the volatility that this event has brought, and will be fading the “big three” in favor of a longer card while staying within my usual unit allocations. In the end, I’ve bet seven players in this field of 70, which technically already gives us a 10% chance of hitting a winner, all things being equal.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly PGA TOUR exposure:
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.6U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 2.9U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.
FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Tyrrell Hatton
My Bet: +2700
Best Available Odds:
Of the players who remain winless post-COVID restart, Hatton sits emphatically atop the list as the one who is most due. His last win on the PGA TOUR came in this region of the country on another Bermuda layout at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he’s continued to looks his best on Bermuda courses ever since.
Hatton’s best finish this year came at THE PLAYERS where he finished solo second place to Scottie Scheffler. TPC Sawgrass’ Bermuda turf, susceptibility to gusting winds, and presence of water hazards threatening throughout its tight design make it the top comp course to TPC Southwind in my opinion, which should mean Hatton is due for better results to come.
With eight top-20s over his last nine starts, a PGA TOUR win feels inevitable to come soon for Hatton, and this is yet another course that should suit his strengths well.
Collin Morikawa
My Bet: +2800
Best Available Odds:
Remove course length and the need to hit a high volume of putts from the equation, and backing an in-form Collin Morikawa is always going to be a good idea. After a slow start to the year, he’s returned to his vintage elite ball-striking form. He ranks top-10 in Fairways Gained, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, Opportunities Gained, and SG: T2G over his last 36 rounds. Of course, that omits the putting statistics which has continued to plague his winless draught since the 2021 Open Championship. But, Having gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts, there’s room for optimism he’s found something on the greens. If Zalatoris proved capable of gaining on these greens last year, it’s easy to envision Morikawa following the same path.
Sam Burns
My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:
There aren’t many top-tier players in this field with consistently strong results at TPC Southwind, but Burns finds himself on that short list. After losing to Abraham Ancer in a playoff here in 2021, Burns backed that up with yet another impressive performance, finishing T20 here last year. Burns is always live on any Bermuda-based layout, but he’s recently found more consistency on shorter, positional tracks. He picked up his lone victory of 2023 at the WGC Dell Match Play, dominating on a short Bermuda-based course in Austin Country Club. With five top-15 finishes on sub7,200 yard courses this year, I expect another strong showing from Burns on yet another solid course fit for his strengths.
Corey Conners
My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:
Anytime I’m inclined to bet Collin Morikawa, there’s a good chance I’m also going to like Corey Conners. That’s especially the case this week, where we have Conners available at 3x the odds of Morikawa for identical profiles of elite ball striking, proven precision on positional courses, and a little help needed on the greens. Conners’ history at TPC Southwind is solid, with four consecutive top-40 finishes. If he can get anything going on the greens this week, we should expect Conners to play himself into contention here.
Justin Rose
My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:
Justin Rose was the last man on my card this week, as I ultimately leaned on my model to make the decision for me. He ranks No. 8 overall, and stands out significantly, as the only player available beyond 50-1 odds this week who falls inside the top-15 of my model. Rose ranks top-30 in every key stat category for TPC Southwind, including SG: APP, SG: T2G, Par-4 450-500, and Weighted Putting. We’re getting a discount here due to his three consecutive missed cuts, but I’m fine to overlook the immediate results considering two were in daunting major championship conditions. This is a fair price for a bounce back week on Rose who is already a Ryder Cup lock.
Adam Schenk
My Bet: +22000
Best Available Odds:
After Sepp Straka made his way to a playoff last year on the heels of six consecutive missed cuts to close out the 2022 season, I won’t be deterred from taking a chance on any outright bombs this week. It’s surprising to see odds beyond 200-1 this week in a limited field of just 70 players, so it doesn’t take much convincing to get me on board with Schenk at this price. Schenk has posted five top-10s this season, with his best results coming on positional layouts. Top-15 in both SG: APP and Weighted Putting, he’s elevated his game in 2023 and proven capable of going low any given week.
Nick Taylor
My Bet: +25000
Best Available Odds:
For the same reasons I’m taking a chance on Schenk, I’m going back to Nick Taylor at similarly gaudy odds. Taylor finished No. 12 in the end-of-season FedEx Cup Standings, and played his best on the biggest stages, winning his home RBC Canadian Open event and placing runner up behind Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open. I’m not concerned about his ability to stand up to pressure in the playoffs, and am still encouraged by the form, with a top-20 finish two starts ago at the Genesis Scottish Open.
FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
JT Poston
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:
It’s a good sign in any sport to get hot leading into the playoffs, so you have to feel great about the momentum JT Poston carries into Memphis. He’s finished top-10 in four of his last five starts, and now enters yet another ideal fit for his game of accuracy and spike putting on familiar Bermuda greens. With three straight top-30s at TPC Southwind, there’s no question he’s comfortable navigating this track.
Keegan Bradley
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:
It’s been a renaissance year for Keegan on the greens, as he’s transformed the putter from a liability to arguably his greatest strength. The Florida resident has looked fantastic on Bermuda greens this season, and his premium ball striking should suit him well on this layout which penalized wayward shots significantly.
Aaron Rai
My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:
A positional course that rewards driving accuracy and an emphasis on approach to generate scoring opportunities on par-4s in the perfect set up for first round assassin, Aaron Rai. Ranking top-5 in both SG: APP & Fairways Gained, and top-20 in Birdies or Better Gained, this is yet another layout that will reward the strengths of Rai’s game.
Adam Schenk
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
Elite approach play and putting is always the first place I look when narrowing down a first round leader pool. That is where Schenk excels, and he’s one of few options this far down the board who is capable of leading the field in both categories.
Sam Ryder
My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:
Some sportsbooks have given Sam Ryder the longest odds in the entire field to finish as first round leader. While he may be a bottom-five talent in this loaded field, the first round leader market has proven week over week that any PGA TOUR player is capable of going low one round at a time. I don’t expect Ryder to contend this week, but his approach and putting form still make him a candidate to go low on Thursday.
FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP PROPS (3 UNITS)
Top-20 Finish: Rickie Fowler
My Bet: +105
Best Available Odds:
One of the most consistent players on TOUR this season, Fowler enters this week with 10 top-25 finishes over his last 13 events. With a field of 70 in store this week, roughly half the size of a standard PGA TOUR event, a top-20 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, is effectively like asking for a top-40 finish in a full-field event. I’ll take my chances on Fowler here, as he continues to gain strokes throughout his bag.
Top-10 Finish: Tyrrell Hatton
My Bet: +220
Best Available Odds:
Hatton has proven to be a backdoor specialist in 2023. While his seven top-10s this season are very impressive, I’m placing this as an insurance bet on my outright, as Hatton has repeatedly shot himself in the foot whenever putting himself in position to win a tournament this year.
Top-20 Finish: Nick Taylor
My Bet: +400
Best Available Odds:
I’m a believer in large sample sizes, and now that a long wraparound season is officially in the books, I can’t dismiss that Nick Taylor’s finished as the 12th highest ranked player on the PGA TOUR at the conclusion of the 2022-2023 season. A win at the RBC Canadian Open and runner up finish at the WM Phoenix Open – two elevated events – will fast track you up the standings, but they also validate that Taylor can play his best under pressure. I don’t believe Taylor belongs in the bottom half of the odds board this week, so I’ll gladly take the discount here on a player who finished top-20 in 40% of his starts this season.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Sam Burns
I’m sticking to my guns with my spotlight featured player here from the beginning of the week. At this juncture of the season, Burns is one of the best remaining options I have at my disposal, and he’s one of few top talents in this field who’s proven able to contend at TPC Southwind. I need a small miracle to make up enough ground to cash in in One And Done this season, but Burns certainly possesses the boom or bust finishing potential I’m chasing this week.
If not Burns, I would also consider Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, or Collin Morikawa as OAD picks.
FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own FedEx St. Jude Championship bets, and see you on Monday for the BMW Championship! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
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