Each week, TheLines will provide a daily betting breakdown and analysis for the upcoming Monday Night Football game. We’ll look at the odds and see why they’re moving a certain way, along with breaking down the matchup and providing the week’s best prop bets.
The Saints will look to lock down the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs when they travel to Carolina to face the reeling Panthers. Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games and will need to upset the 11-2 Saints to keep its fading playoff hopes alive.
MNF Betting Odds and analysis
|Spread||NO -6 (+-110)|
CAR +6 (-110)
|NO -6.5 (-110)|
CAR +6.5 (-110)
|NO -6 (-110)|
CAR +6 (-110)
|NO -6 (+-110)|
CAR +6 (-110)
|NO -6 (+-110)
CAR +6 (-110)
|Total||Ov 52 (-109)|
Un 52 (-112)
|Ov 52.5 (-110)|
Un 52.5 (-110)
|Ov 52 (-110)|
Un 52 (-110)
|Ov 52 (-109)|
Un 52 (-112)
|Ov 52 (-109)
Un 52 (-112)
Tuesday Update: This number is either New Orleans -6 or 6.5 depending on the sportsbook. In Las Vegas, the consensus line is -6.5. In New Jersey, FanDuel and BetStars are at 6.5, while 888 Sports and SugarHouse are -6. It looks like some early money has come in on the home dog. The Saints opened -7 at the Westgate in Las Vegas but quickly dropped to 6.5. The total ranges from 51.5 to 52.5. FanDuel and BetStars are on the higher side at 52.5, while the MGM Mirage in Vegas is at 51.5.
Wednesday Update: Not much movement in this game on Wednesday. FanDuel moved the Saints down to -6 with the total at 52. Those are the consensus numbers in New Jersey. In Las Vegas, there are a couple totals at 52.5 but Saints -6 is the consensus line there as well.
Week 15 game matchup
The Panthers’ pass defense will need to start playing better in a hurry or it will be a long night facing Drew Brees and the Saints. Carolina ranks 20th in pass defense, allowing 255 yards per game. The Panthers have really been struggling against quarterbacks over the second half of the season. Since Week 8, Carolina has allowed 15 passing touchdowns.
Brees has slowed down of late with just 171, 127 and 201 yards in his last three games. However, he’s still thrown for at least 265 yards six times this season with 31 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Brees is connecting on a ridiculous 75.7 percent of his pass attempts through 12 games.
Luckily for Cam Newton and the Panthers, the Saints’ pass defense is even worse. New Orleans ranks 28th against the pass, giving up 271 yards per game. Some of that is bad defense and some of it is the Saints playing with a lead a lot this year. Either way, New Orleans has allowed seven different quarterbacks to throw for at least 275 yards against them.
Brees and Newton will likely be the deciding factors in this matchup since these are two of the NFL’s top rushing defenses. The Saints rank first against the run giving up just 77.6 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. The Panthers are tough to run on as well, ranking seventh in the NFL. Carolina allows 97.8 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush.
The Saints’ rush defense will be put to the test this week though against the Panthers’ No. 2 ranked ground attack. Carolina ranks second in the NFL at 137.4 yards per game and first in yards per carry at 5.4.
Christian McCaffrey has 926 rushing yards to go along with 86 receptions. McCaffrey should make a big impact as a receiver Monday night against a Saints defense giving up 5.4 receptions per game to running backs. Newton has chipped in with 473 rushing yards and four scores. He’s gained at least 40 yards rushing in six games this year.
Week 15 MNF betting breakdown
The Saints have gone a stellar 10-3 ATS this season. New Orleans has also been profitable away from, going 6-1 SU and ATS on the road.
The Saints lost 13-10 in Dallas two weeks ago. It was New Orleans’ first SU loss since Week 1 and first ATS loss since Week 2. The Saints bounced back last week with a 28-14 win over the Buccaneers as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans outscored Tampa Bay 25-0 in the second half to erase a 14-3 deficit.
The Panthers are in a freefall after starting the season 6-2. Carolina has lost five straight games both SU and ATS. One silver lining for the Panthers is they’ve been much better at home this season. Carolina is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home.
This will be just the second home game for the Panthers since Nov. 8 where lost straight up to the Seahawks 30-27 as a three-point favorite. Four of Carolina’s last five games have been on the road.
Despite having one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses, the Saints are 8-5 to the UNDER this year. The UNDER has cashed in four consecutive Saints game and is 5-2 in New Orleans’ seven road contests this season.
The Panthers are 7-6 to the OVER. The OVER has been a good bet when Carolina plays at home this season, going 5-1 in that spot. The Panthers last five home games have produced at least 52 points.
These two teams are used to playing high scoring games. The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Meanwhile, the Saints have had success in Carolina recently, going 4-0 ATS in their last four visits to Bank of America Stadium.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
Watch this space for a video from our friends over PlayPicks.com to get some best bets for Monday’s game.
2018 MNF Betting Recap
|1||NY Jets at Detroit||DET -7||44||NYJ +288|
|NY Jets 48, Detroit 17|
|1||LA Rams at Oakland||LAR -6.5||47.5||LAR -255|
|LA Rams 33, Oakland 13|
|2||Seattle at Chicago||CHI -5||42.5||SEA +209|
|Chicago 24, Seattle 17|
|3||Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay||PIT -1||55||PIT +100|
|Pittsburgh 30, Tampa Bay 27|
|4||KC Chiefs at Denver||KC -3.5||54||KC -180|
|KC Chiefs 27, Denver 23|
|5||NO Saints at Washington||NO -6||51.5||NO -255|
|NO Saints 43, Washington 19|
|6||SF 49ers at Green Bay||GB -9||46.5||SF +375|
|Green Bay 33, SF 49ers 30|
|7||NY Giants at Atlanta||ATL -4||52.5||NYG -185|
|Atlanta 23, NY Giants 20|
|8||NE Patriots at Buffalo||NE -14||44||NE -950|
|NE Patriots 25, Buffalo 6|
|9||Tennessee at Dallas||DAL -4.5||40||TEN +190|
|Tennessee 28, Dallas 14|
|10||NY Giants at SF 49ers||SF -3||45||NYG +150|
|NY Giants 27, SF 49ers 23|
|11||KC Chiefs at LA Rams||LAR -3||63||KC +144|
|LA Rams 54, KC Chiefs 51|
|12||Tennessee at Houston||HOU -4||42.5||TEN +170|
|Houston 34, Tennessee 17|
|13||Washington at Philadelphia||PHI -6||44||WAS +205|
|Philadelphia 28, Washington 13|
|14||Minnesota at Seattle||SEA -3||46||MIN +145|
|Seattle 21, Minnesota 7|
Where to bet on Monday Night Football