The 2019-20 NFL season is down to its final two teams. The Kansas City Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969 and will face the San Francisco 49ers, who will make their first appearance in the Big Game since 2013.
Sportsbooks wasted no time posting odds for Super Bowl LIV. In fact, some books had a point spread on 49ers vs. Chiefs before either team had even won their respective conference championship game. The Chiefs opened between a pick’em and a 1.5-point favorite over the 49ers, depending on where you looked. The number is expected to move rapidly as early money comes in this week.
Below you’ll find the opening Super Bowl betting odds at legal US sportsbooks like FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and PointsBet. The spread, moneyline, and total will be added to this page as soon as they are posted by the books.
Super Bowl 2020 betting odds (January 29, 2020)
The Chiefs opened as a short favorite at most sportsbooks and initial action shifted the line to 1.5 points. The point total is hovering around 54 points after some heavy action came in on the Over right after the NFC Championship went final.
Ahead of last year’s Super Bowl, the Patriots opened as slight underdogs before heavy action swung the line to the point that they were favored by two points on most books, then eventually drifted back towards Rams -1. We’re unlikely to see such dramatic movement this year given how strong both teams looked in recent action.
The Niners opened the season with +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs opened around +600, then dropped as low as +1400 when Patrick Mahomes suffered a knee sprain. The moneyline is now around Even for the Niners and -120 for the Chiefs at most books.
Where to bet Super Bowl 2020
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Chiefs vs. 49ers game matchups
Strength meets strength in this matchup on both sides of the ball. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ prolific passing attack will try to crack a 49ers pass defense that ranked second in DVOA and yielded the fewest passing YPG (169.9) with the fifth-most sacks (48) this season.
The Chiefs porous run defense will have to try and stop a Niners rushing attack that’s produced at least 112 yards on the ground in 8 straight games. Raheem Mostert is averaging 5.96 YPC during that span and dominated the Packers for 220 yards and 4 TDs at a 7.6 YPC clip.
The 49ers may be without Tevin Coleman (arm), leaving Matt Breida to share backfield work with Mostert.
When the Niners offense is forced to obvious passing situations, Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled. Trading for Emmanuel Sanders and getting George Kittle back from injury has sparked that pass offense, but Jimmy G simply hasn’t been asked to do much over the Niners’ last two wins. He’s still relatively inexperienced and unproven in the playoffs, while Mahomes has been unbelievable with 11 TDs, zero INT over four playoff games and he’s only taken two sacks this postseason.
When the Chiefs are unable to protect Mahomes to free up their wide receivers down the field, their offense can struggle. Mahomes could be held in check by a team that can rush four and keep him in the pocket and the 49ers have been one of the best teams in recent memory in terms of getting pressure with four linemen. San Francisco will look to prevent downfield shots with consistent pressure and could do just that against a KC line that ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate (8.6%) this season.
While his detractors may point to previous playoff defeats, Andy Reid has been masterful in terms of countering against defensive game plans. Both the Texans and Titans stifled Mahomes and company over the previous two rounds before the Chiefs offense erupted.
As good as the 49ers secondary may be, they don’t have a conventional answer for Tyreek Hill. San Francisco’s slot cornerback Jimmie Ward is a natural safety with decent speed (4.47 40-yard dash time). Yet does he have the quickness to contain the fastest player in the NFL? Ward will likely get help with a creative scheme, but the Chiefs have plenty of speedy weapons in Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Sammy Watkins.
Chiefs vs. 49ers betting trends and stats
The Chiefs are now a league-best 10-4-1 ATS when listed as favorites. They’ve covered the spread by an average of 9.8 PPG during their current eight-game winning streak.
Kansas City’s defense has been the biggest difference from last year. The Chiefs rank sixth in red zone TD percentage (50.82%) and tenth in opponents third-down conversion rate (36.87%). And while KC is 29th in YPC allowed (4.9), the Chiefs are middle of the pack in rush attempts allowed per game (25.7) because of their potent offense.
San Francisco is great on third down (44.81% conversion rate) but struggles to convert red zone opportunities in TDs (53.7% is 21st in NFL).
The Niners are 5-0 ATS when listed as underdogs this year and 6-2 ATS on the road. The crowd in Miami could be slightly partial toward the Chiefs, since most bets may come in on the flashier team.
San Francisco is just 2-5 ATS when facing an opponent that is on equal rest. The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS on the road or at neutral sites. They’re 9-4-1 ATS following a win.
Underdogs have had quite a run in recent Super Bowls, covering the spread in 10 of the last 13 years. The Patriots (-3) were the last favorite to cover the spread against Atlanta in 2017 and of course that required a miraculous comeback to prevail in OT.
Super Bowl 54 predictions
Check back leading up to the Super Bowl as our team of betting experts breaks down this game from top to bottom, including thoughts on the point spread, moneyline, total, props, and much more.
Super Bowl 54 details
Super Bowl LIV will officially kick off Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
The game will be televised through broadcast television on FOX and FOX Deportes in Spanish. Additionally, the game will be made available in Canada through CTV, in Brasil through ESPN Brasil and in the United Kingdom and Ireleand through BBC One.
In the United States, viewers will also be able to live stream Super Bowl LIV through Hulu with Live TV, YouTube TV, DirecTV NOW, Sling TV, Yahoo Sports and FuboTV.
Best Super Bowl betting sites
Legal sports betting is progressively expanding across the United States. Those physically located within 13 states will have an opportunity to place legal wagers on Super Bowl LIV. There are multiple options mobile sportsbook options now available in eight of these states.
Bettors should particularly be aware of these sportsbooks:
All three sportsbooks will have a wide selection of special offers and promotions for Super Bowl LIV aimed at both first-time and existing customers. Interested bettors in eligible states should be on the lookout for such opportunities beginning shortly after this coming weekend’s conference championship games decide what two teams will participate in Super Bowl LIV.
How to bet on the Super Bowl
The point spread will be one of the most popular methods of placing a wager on Super Bowl LIV. The point spread is the projected margin of victory set by oddsmakers for the favored team. If a bettor wagers on the favorite to “cover” the point spread, the favorite must not only emerge victorious, but must do so by more than the point spread for the bet to be a winner. If the favorite wins the game but does so by less than the spread – or if it loses the game altogether – the bettor will have lost his/her money wagered.
A moneyline wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of margin. A moneyline wager is essentially the same type of bet that has been placed among family and friends for decades. When placed with a sportsbook, a moneyline wager pays winning bets based on the odds attached to the wager.
For example, a moneyline wager on the favorite may carry odds of “-110”, meaning a bettor wins $100 for every $110 wagered. Conversely, a moneyline wager on the underdog may carry odds of “+112”, meaning a bettor wins $112 for every $100 bet.
A totals wager is one that hinges on whether the bettor correctly bet the game’s combined final score would finish over or under the number projected by the sportsbook at the time of the wager. For example, say Super Bowl LIV carries a projected total of 49 points. If one wagers the “under” on that figure and the game finishes with a 30-21 final score, the bet is a losing one, since the combined total of that score is 51 points. However, if the game instead finishes 24-21 – a combined score of 45 – then that bet would be a winner.
Other ways to bet on the Super Bowl
Player Prop bets are wagers that are based on whether the individual player that’s the subject of the bet falls short of or exceeds certain statistical benchmarks. Sportsbooks typically offer an extensive array of such bets for an event of the magnitude of the Super Bowl. Player prop bets are based on the statistics usually accrued by players at different positions.
For example, a prop bet for a quarterback would be whether the player throws for less or more than 250 yards in the game. For a running back, an example would be whether the player receivers less or more than 20 carries. For a receiver, an available prop wager could be based on whether the player falls below or exceeds a certain number of receptions during the game.
Even non-skill position players such as kickers or even an entire defensive unit can be the subject of prop bets. A standard prop bet for a kicker could be based on whether the player will successfully hit more or less than a certain number of field goals, or whether they will miss an extra point. For a defense, prop bets could be based on whether that unit will give up a certain amount of points, or whether it will score a touchdown on an interception or fumble return.
Player prop bets are most often graded on full-game statistics, but there are also prop bets that are based on statistics accrued during a specific quarter or specific half of a game.
Prop bets for major events such as a Super Bowl can also center on outcomes that aren’t based on traditional in-game statistics. For example, a prop bet can be placed on whether the game-opening coin toss comes up as heads or tails or which team will win the toss; the color of the Gatorade that is dumped on the winning team’s coach; and what the jersey number of one of the players who scores during the game might be.
There are even prop wagers based on the two flagship non-sports events associated with the game – the National Anthem and the halftime show. Bettors can place wagers on contingencies such as the length of time of the National Anthem, whether the performer will omit a word, whether a certain celebrity will make an unexpected appearance during the halftime festivities or how many songs will be performed by the halftime act.
The most prestigious individual Super Bowl-related award is that of Most Valuable Player. While any player is technically eligible for the distinction, the best odds by and far lie with the quarterback position, which has taken home 29 of the 54 MVP awards in Super Bowl history. That outpaces the next closest positions – wide receiver and running back – by 22. Five quarterbacks have won the MVP award on multiple occasions. The Patriots’ Tom Brady leads the way with four. The 49ers’ Joe Montana follows with three. Meanwhile, the Packers’ Bart Starr, the Steelers’ Terry Bradshaw and the Giants’ Eli Manning each garnered two apiece.
Even when a future Hall of Famer like Brady is on the winning side, it’s important to remember there is no such thing as a surefire bet. In last year’s Patriots’ win over the Rams, receiver Julian Edelman earned MVP honors with a 10-reception, 141-yard tally.
Alternate lines are those offered by sportsbooks as secondary options to the official point spread that has been set. These lines feature an extensive array of different point spreads for both the favorite and underdog side of the game. These lines typically begin at points well above the number associated with each team in the official game line and range well into the other side of the bet, i.e. allowing for a heavy favorite to be bet as a heavy underdog and vice versa.
To cite an example from last year’s Patriots-Rams Super Bowl matchup, New England entered the game at 2.5-point favorites at many sportsbooks. Alternate lines offered could have included a wagering opportunity on the Rams as seven-point favorites instead. Moreover, that bet would have included a very favorable “price” – the preset ratio at which the bet would pay out – due to the much lower probability of the Rams not only winning, but winning by more than a touchdown.
Live betting offers bettors the opportunity to place wagers on the point spread, moneyline or projected total of a game as odds on each fluctuate depending on the flow of a game. With a live betting option, a bettor doesn’t have to be locked into just the wagers they placed prior to the start of the game or at halftime. Rather, if, for example, the favored team unexpectedly falls behind by a two-touchdown margin in the first half, the bettor can hedge his original wager by investing in a new line with odds that reflect how the game is unfolding.
A teaser bet is based on multiple games and enables the bettor to adjust the official point spread anywhere between four and 10 points, depending on sport. For football, the allowable range if six, 6.5 or seven points. For a teaser bet to pay out, each leg of the wager must be a winner.
An example of a teaser bet involving the two conference championship games would be as follows:
- The Chiefs are teased from 7.5-point favorites over the Titans down to 1.5-favorites (six-point tease)
- The 49ers are also teased from 7.5-point favorites over the Packers to 1.5-point favorites
If both Kansas City and San Francisco win their games by at least two points, respectively, the teaser bet is a winner. The appeal of teaser bets is the ability to manipulate the spread, and in the process, significantly increase the odds of the wager being successful.
Futures bets are a great way for diehard sports fans to get themselves a little more involved in the upcoming success of their favorite teams and/or players. They can also be a good way for the maligned hometown fan to shift focus a little bit and worry more about the success (or failure) of rival teams.
Fans can put their prediction skills to the test by placing wagers on things such as the Super Bowl 54 champion, division and conference winners, win totals for each team, and individual player awards such as MVP and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year.
Additionally, many books offer over/under lines on certain yardage or touchdown numbers for specific players or head-to-head options between two stars of a shared position. These are often referred to as “specials.”
Odds on certain futures will often be updated throughout the offseason as players change teams or suffer injuries. Once the season starts, odds can change wildly based on injuries, and fast or slow starts with bettors having to know the difference between pretenders and contenders.
There’s nothing like placing a wager on a longshot early in the offseason and watching the year play out in their, and your, favor. It can be ill-advised to bet on a favorite in the offseason with so much time for things to go against them.
How to bet NFL futures
All online sportsbooks come in slightly different layouts, but futures sections are typically in the same general area.
Simply click the “NFL” or “Pro Football” tab on your book of choice. The default screen is generally the Week 1 schedule with all 16 games listed, but in a dropdown menu or separate menu bar, there should be several other options, including futures and specials.
Peruse these sections at your whim, looking for the teams, players, or odds which matter most to you. A wager such as Super Bowl Champions or MVP will have money options listed, whether it be all 32 teams or 30-50 of the league’s biggest stars. Each option will have odds listed next to it.
Betting the New England Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champions at +700 means a $100 wager returns $700. A safer bet such as the Patriots to win the AFC East comes with diminished -600 odds for a return of $16.67 on a $100 bet.
Win totals and player specials typically come in the form of over/unders on a number set by the sportsbook. Each side of the bet will have odds for any result coming in above or below the line.
Super Bowl betting tips and strategies
Line shopping and getting the best number
With any purchase, shopping for the best price is advisable. Sports betting is no different. The “prices” associated with sports betting are the odds attached to each wager that determine the payout if the bet is a winner. Other sportsbook-to-sportsbook variables that are important for a better to also be conscious of include possible differences in the point spread and projected total posted for a particular game.
The original lines set by oddsmakers when a game is first posted can often be the “sharpest”, i.e. most difficult to consistently beat over time. Therefore, the biggest edge can often come from waiting things out and seeing what way the betting public’s wagers move a point spread as a game draws closer. Factors such as faulty “groupthink” can sometimes alter a team’s projected advantage to the extent it creates a tangible edge for a sharp bettor.
One caveat about the Super Bowl is that no one NFL game sees its line affected more by “sharp money.” Therefore, line movement for this particular game is often the byproduct of bets placed based on an effective process more than any other during the season.
Fading the public
The strategy of betting against the most popular side of a bet can pay off on occasion. However, it’s not a strategy that’s necessarily advisable to be utilized with great frequency. But, as discussed in the prior section, there are certain instances when the general public’s infatuation with a certain team’s reputation (or in some cases, even certain superstar players such as Brady) can lead to a notable amount of money being wagered on that team. In turn, the line could move to a point where a team is favored by an increasingly unrealistic amount of points.
By “fading the public” in such an instance, a bettor could exploit the situation and place a winning bet on the underdog to slide in under the spread. The same could hold true for a projected total that gets bet up to a certain level due to the offensive reputations of one or both of the teams.
Using advanced metrics
While many bettors likely put only a modest amount of what could accurately be termed “research” before placing a wager, there’s certainly no shortage of metrics available to be evaluated for those who wish to avail themselves. For team-based wagers such as moneylines, point spreads and projected totals, bettors can review the history of each team’s performance in each category.
However, where advanced metrics can be particularly helpful is when making individual- or team-based prop wagers. Statistical trends can certainly help a bettor make an informed decision on whether a certain receiver is likely to exceed a certain amount of catches versus a certain opponent’s defense, for example. The same could apply to countless other such prop wagers, such as a quarterback reaching the 300-yard threshold and a running back eclipsing the 100-yard mark, to cite just two other examples.
A good example for a potential Super Bowl LIV matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers would involve San Francisco star tight end George Kittle. Say a sportsbook offers a prop wager on Kittle making over/under five catches. A bettor evaluating this wager may go with the Over when considering Kansas City faced the second-most tight end targets (141) in the league this past season and tied for the third-most catches (96) allowed to the position.
“Middling” a game is defined as a bettor placing wagers on both sides of the contest. Football is considered the most popular sport to utilize this strategy. Because it involves placing more than one wager on a game, middling can be a strategy that’s rarely used by novice bettors. However, it ironically helps mitigate the risk involved by significantly upping the chances of one of the two bets being a winner.
Middling is typically made possible when there is notable line movement on a game within a week. Using an example from a potential Super LIV Titans-49ers matchup, say San Francisco opens up as a seven-point favorite. A bettor initially places a wager on this line, but over the course of the two weeks, the line is bet up even further to a 10-point projected advantage for San Fran. That same bettor then places a bet on the Titans +10, i.e. Tennessee to lose by nine points or less or win outright.
In this example, the bettor is a winner if either:
- The 49ers win by eight points or more.
- The Titans lose by nine points or less or win outright.
Taking advantage of free bets and promotions
Legal, regulated sportsbooks typically offer a variety of enticing promotions, for both first-time and existing customers. Those offers are even more prominent for an event the magnitude of the Super Bowl. Bettors should therefore be on the lookout for such offers as soon as the participants for Super Bowl LIV are decided in this coming weekend’s conference championship games.
Examples of special offers and promotions that are likely to be offered include:
- Risk-free bets up to a certain amount. For last season’s Super Bowl LIII Rams-Patriots matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook offered first-time depositors up to $600 worth of risk-free bets on the game by matching a first bet up to $500 and then offering another $100 worth of free bets in 10 installments with an initial deposit of $5 or more.
- Special odds boosts on certain wagers. For example, for last season’s Super Bowl LIII matchup between the Rams and Patriots, FanDuel Sportsbook offered 53 to 1 odds on moneyline wagers on either side.
- A variety of potential special offers involving prop bets, parlays, teasers and other bet types.
Where can I bet on the Super Bowl legally?
Those physically located within a total of 13 states will have the option of placing wagers on Super Bowl LIV at a legal, regulated sportsbook. Of those jurisdictions, eight of them offer bettors the option of placing a bet through either a sportsbook’s website/mobile wagering app or its physical retail location. Another five currently only allow wagering at physical sportsbooks.
By Super Bowl LV in February 2021, at least seven additional states – Illinois, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Michigan and Colorado — should have legal sports betting options available. That number is expected to increase based on a certain amount of sports betting bills across the country gaining passage during 2020.
The following states already offer both online and retail sports betting options:
The following states currently only offer retail sports betting options:
How much money is wagered on the Super Bowl?
The Super Bowl is annually the most lucrative single-event sports betting opportunity. The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated bets on last year’s Patriots-Rams game (Super Bowl LIII) to have reached approximately $6 billion worldwide in both legal and illegal wagers. As per the AGA’s estimates, approximately $325 million of that amount was wagered at legalized sportsbooks within the United States.
At many sportsbooks, proposition bets constitute more than half of the wagers and amount placed for the Super Bowl. With the ongoing expansion of legalized, regulated sports wagering across the United States, the total “handle” – the cumulative amount wagered on the game – should continue to edge upward for several years based solely on the increase in legal betting opportunities for sports fans. For this year’s Super Bowl LIV, those physically located within 13 states will have access to either online and/or retail sports betting (a physical sportsbook) for the big game.
Who is favored to win the 2021 Super Bowl?
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as the betting favorites in the 2020-21 season at +700 odds, followed by the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens at +800. Click here for a complete look at the early 2021 Super Bowl odds.