PGA Tour Power Rankings 2020

Workday Charity Open Predictions

By Tyler Duke

Each week, we will highlight our top 20 players on the PGA Tour in order of likeliness to win the tournament.

Factors coming into play on the rankings are (in no order):

  • Recent form: How the player has performed in various aspects of his game in recent weeks.
  • Course history: How the player has performed at the host course if he has played there in the past.
  • Course fit: Used as a secondary or backup to course history, fit looks at certain skills that translate to success on the host course.
  • Strokes gained: Strokes gained will come into play in all of the factors above. Unless otherwise noted, strokes gained stats are taken from the player’s last 50 rounds.

Using the guidelines above, value can be found in the betting market by highlighting players whose outlook for the tournament may be flying under the radar to the general public.

The weighted model this week is:

  • 25% SG: Approach
  • 15% Good Drives
  • 15% SG: Par 5
  • 10% Prox. 175-200 yards
  • 10% Par 4: 450-500 yards
  • 10% Scrambling
  • 5% SG: Putting
  • 5% Sand Saves
  • 5% Prox: 200+ yards

The sample size has been reduced to 24 rounds to put more importance on recent play with the extended break.

This week: Workday Charity Open

  • Date: July 9-12, 2020
  • Location: Dublin, Ohio
  • Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
  • How to watch: PGA Tour Live, GOLF Channel, CBS
  • Purse: $6,200,000
  • Defending champ: None

ALSO READ: Workday Charity Open Betting Preview

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Course preview: Muirfield Village Golf Club

The PGA Tour continued its return from the COVID-19 pandemic last week with its fourth tournament hosted since the restart in early June at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Once again, the presence of the coronavirus was felt as Harris English – one of the pre-tournament favorites – had to withdraw from the tournament after testing positive. It was mostly a quiet week thankfully after his case compared to the previous two weeks.

After contending into Sunday at each of the first three events back, Bryson DeChambeau finally got it done on Sunday with an impressive final round for his sixth PGA Tour win. His long drives and powerful swing have been polarizing for the game, but there’s no question it’s provided him results with a T3, T8, T6 and a win going into a week off at Muirfield.

The revised schedule sees the PGA Tour head south to Dublin, Ohio to play at the famous Muirfield Village Golf Club for two consecutive weeks. In an unprecedented move, the PGA Tour will play two straight tournaments at Jack Nicklaus’ place after the John Deere Classic was recently canceled. This will allow travel to halt for an extra week and the PGA Tour to keep things in a bubble through the middle of July. The first event is officially called the Workday Charity Open and will be a one-time tournament. Unlike the Memorial, it will be a full-field event.

Muirfield Village is Jack Nicklaus’ most famous course and has hosted the Memorial Tournament since he founded the event in 1976. It’s hosted a Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. The course plays as a Par 72 at 7,392 yards, but reports say the yardages will vary widely during the first tournament to keep the course fresh and in good condition for the following week. It’s another classic track with tree-lined fairways and tricky greens. As with most Nicklaus courses, there’s a lot of trouble to be found with water hazards and 73 bunkers. It’s not overly long or tough to hit fairways, but the rough is very penalizing and it’s difficult to scramble well around the Bentgrass greens.

Like most Nicklaus courses, premium ball strikers are going to be favored at Muirfield. While the conditions and course setup might be a bit different from what we see at the Memorial, the overall course will be the same and treat players like we’ve seen over the years here. Hitting fairways isn’t hard, but it’s incredibly important to do so … making driving accuracy a key this week. From there, it’s all about hitting greens in the right spot to make putts. If you miss greens, scrambling is tougher than the average course and has correlated to success most years.

Putting won’t be looked at as much of a factor this week as it hasn’t been necessary to be lights out on the greens to contend. More important is getting the ball close to the hole and in spots you can run in some birdies. Muirfield varies from one of the hardest courses on Tour to an average one depending on the conditions. With four par 5s that can be scored on, SG: Par 5 will be an important stat to look at. And with the six long par 4s on the course that typically create long approach shots in, we’ll look at scoring on long par 4s and proximity to the hole with long irons as a key stat.

The field will see an uptick in star power after many top players took their first week off last week after three straight tournaments in June. While some thought Rory McIlroy would return this week and Tiger Woods would finally get back in action, we’ll still see three of the top five players in the world in Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka. Patrick Cantlay will be playing as the No. 9 player in the world and won the Memorial at Muirfield last year.

Workday Charity Open Power Rankings

20. Rickie Fowler: Showed some signs of life that many have been waiting for in Detroit. With swing changes, success can often come quickly once something has been figured out. Gained 5 shots tee-to-green. Finished 2nd, 8th and 14th in last 3 starts at Muirfield. Ranks 6th in Prox. 200+.

19. Joaquin Niemann: Finished 5th at Harbour Town and tends to really pop when he plays well to have a shot at winning. Solid finishes in his first 2 starts at Muirfield with a 6th and 27th. Ranks 1st in Prox: 175-200 and 16th in SG: APP.

18. Kevin Streelman: Could be a trendy pick after finishing 2nd at the Travelers. Has a nice course history at Muirfield with 4 top 20s in his last 5 starts including a 4th last year and 8th in 2016. Ranks 7th in Good Drives, 1st in SG: Par 5 and 17th in Sand Saves.

17. Adam Hadwin: Great all-around play in Detroit led him to a 4th place finish. Poor overall history at Muirfield outside of an 11th in 2016. But he possesses the skills needed around here. Ranks 11th in Par 4: 450-500, 8th in Sand Saves and 20th in Scrambling.

16. Patrick Reed: Surprised with a missed cut in Detroit and has cooled down since the break after a great stretch before it. Has the short game to play well here. Finished 8th in 2016. Ranks 3rd in SG: P and 22nd in SG: Par 5.

15. Matthew Fitzpatrick: He often seems to be somewhere near contention but rarely completely pops to have a chance to win the tournament. Played well at Harbour Town but was terrible around the greens. Ranks 12th in SG: P and 3rd in Good Drives.

14. Viktor Hovland: Continues to find himself right in the mix most weeks thanks to incredible ball striking, but his putting won’t lead him to any victories. Chipping has improved, which will be a good sign for Muirfield. Ranks 8th in SG: APP and 8th in Par 4: 450-500.

13. Maverick McNealy: Played nicely in Detroit with an 8th place finish and continues to evolve into a solid all-around player on Tour. Really strong short game could make him a contender at Muirfield. Ranks 26th in Good Drives, 2nd in SG: P, 16th in Sand Saves and 4th in Scrambling … 5th in the model.

12. Sungjae Im: Disappointing overall in 3 starts after the 10th at Colonial to drop him back in rankings. Lost 5 strokes on approach in those 3 events. Ranks 20th in SG: Par 5, 9th in Scrambling and 19th in Sand Saves … 12th overall in the model.

11. Harold Varner III: He’s gained 16 strokes on approaches in the four events since the break and gained nearly 9 at Muirfield in 2017. He just has to figure out the short game to contend. Ranks 5th in Good Drives, 2nd in Prox. 200+ and 5th in SG: APP.

10. Brooks Koepka: It’s going to take a few more strong tournaments for his statistics to catch up, but he looked like his old self at Harbour Town with big drives and great putting. He’s only played Muirfield twice but gained 5 strokes on approaches in 2017. Ranks 15th in SG: Par 5 but poorly overall in the model. He’s a reputation play.

9. Justin Rose: He played very well in his first 2 events to show signs of coming back to life before a MC at the Travelers. His course history is insane … a win, 2nd, 6th, 8th and 8th in his last 8 starts. Ranks 3rd in Sand Saves and 21st in Prox. 175-200 … only 22nd in the model.

8. Xander Schauffele: He contended in 2 of his 3 events since the break even without bringing his best stuff on approaches. Finished 14th in his 2nd appearance at Muirfield last year. Poor play around the greens recently is concerning. Ranks 15th in Good Drives, 20th in SG: APP and 6th in Par 4: 450-500.

7. Patrick Cantlay: Solid showing at the Travelers finishing 11th in his only action since the break. He should be well rested and was last player to win at Muirfield along with a 4th in 2018. A superb short game and top ball striking makes him the perfect fit. Ranks 17th in SG: APP.

6. Hideki Matsuyama: Showed some signs in Detroit that should give his supporters some confidence going to a course he’s torn up with a win, a 5th and a 6th in 6 tries. Managed to win here with negative strokes gained putting. Ranks 2nd in SG: APP and 5th in SG: Par 5.

5. Marc Leishman: Nothing going for him in his last two events, but he’s still suddenly turned into a top iron player in the world. It will come down to keeping it in the fairway for him. Has 2 top 5s at Muirfield. Ranks 1st in SG: APP and 4th in Prox. 200+.

4. Collin Morikawa: He hit the ball poorly in two starts after nearly winning at Colonial, but he rarely seems to lose his game for long. He’s been so good tee-to-green that it feels impossible for him to play poorly at a course like Muirfield. The key to winning will be scrambling. Ranks 6th in Good Drives, 6th in SG: APP, 2nd in SG: Par 5 and 4th in Prox. 175-200.

3. Jon Rahm: It hasn’t quite clicked for him since the break, but he still posted decent results at Harbour Town and the Travelers. His short game should feature nicely at Muirfield. Ranks 7th in SG: Par 5, 2nd in Par 4: 450-500 and 8th in SG: P. Missed the cut in his only start in the Memorial.

2. Gary Woodland: He struggled a bit in his last 2 starts but gained nearly 9 shots on approach at Colonial. Has tons of experience at Muirfield including a 4th in 2016. His game has transitioned from pure power to one of the best iron players on Tour. Ranks 4th in SG: APP and 16th in Good Drives.

1. Justin Thomas: Mixed results at Muirfield include three missed cuts and a 4th and 8th. Has 2 top 10s in 3 starts since the break. Has the mix of incredible ball striking and a great short game that can win here. Ranks 10th in SG: APP, 6th in Sand Saves and 1st overall in the model.

Workday Charity Open betting odds

Winner Odds

Game
07/09/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Justin Thomas
Bet now
+1100
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1100
Patrick Cantlay
Bet now
+1300
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1500
Jon Rahm
Bet now
+1300
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1500
Brooks Koepka
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1600
Bet now
+1600
Hideki Matsuyama
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1600
Xander Schauffele
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1900
Bet now
+2000
Viktor Hovland
Bet now
+2600
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2200
Justin Rose
Bet now
+2600
Bet now
+2600
Bet now
+2500
Rickie Fowler
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3000
Collin Morikawa
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3300
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3300
Gary Woodland
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4500
Marc Leishman
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4000
Matt Kuchar
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4500
Sungjae Im
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4200
Bet now
+4500
Adam Hadwin
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Joaquin Niemann
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4500
Jordan Spieth
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4500
Bubba Watson
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5000
Byeong Hun An
Bet now
+6600
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+6600

View odds for every golfer at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM

Up next on the PGA Tour

Up Next: The PGA Tour will stay put at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio to play the famous Memorial Tournament created by Jack Nicklaus in 1976. The event is an invitational and will have a smaller field than the one for the Workday Charity Open. Expect the greens to be faster, the rough to be taller and the field to be stronger. Rory McIlroy will likely be back in action and most expect Tiger Woods to finally make his first Tour appearance since the Genesis Open in February.