PGA Tour Power Rankings 2020

US Open Predictions

By Tyler Duke

Each week, we will highlight our top 20 players on the PGA Tour in order of likeliness to win the tournament.

Factors coming into play on the rankings are (in no order):

  • Recent form: How the player has performed in various aspects of his game in recent weeks.
  • Course history: How the player has performed at the host course if he has played there in the past.
  • Course fit: Used as a secondary or backup to course history, fit looks at certain skills that translate to success on the host course.
  • Strokes gained: Strokes gained will come into play in all of the factors above. Unless otherwise noted, strokes gained stats are taken from the player’s last 50 rounds.

Using the guidelines above, value can be found in the betting market by highlighting players whose outlook for the tournament may be flying under the radar to the general public.

The weighted model this week is:

  • 25% SG: Approach
  • 25% SG: Off the Tee
  • 20% SG: Around the Green
  • 10% Bogey Avoidance
  • 10% SG: Putting
  • 10% Proximity from 200+ yards

How To Use Strokes Gained Statistics In Your Golf Betting Strategy

This week: US Open

  • Date: September 17-20, 2020
  • Location: Mamaroneck, New York
  • Course: Winged Foot Golf Club
  • How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
  • Purse: $12,500,000
  • Defending champ: Gary Woodland

ALSO READ: US Open Betting Preview

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Course preview: Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course)

The PGA Tour closed out its 2019-20 season with an exciting finish at the Tour Championship in Atlanta last week. With three months of tournaments completed now since the restart from the COVID-19 pandemic, the PGA Tour seems to be running as smoothly as you could hope with the protocols and social distancing working properly.

The Tour Championship ran with its unique net score rules for the second straight year and produced a fairly interesting Sunday. Even though Xander Schauffele would’ve won the tournament any other week, Dustin Johnson’s pre-tournament lead was enough to bring home the FedExCup trophy. The feedback from the new format is mixed to say the least, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Tour try something new once again. A match play format seems to be a popular choice among fans.

The revised schedule sees the PGA Tour head northeast to New York for the U.S. Open at the famous Winged Foot Golf Club. Players only got a one-week break after the Tour Championship to get ready for the new date for the U.S. Open, while some will be traveling from California after the Safeway Open in Napa. Originally scheduled in its usual June date, the USGA successfully rescheduled its major for a safer time in September.

Winged Foot Golf Club is a Par 70 that will play somewhere around 7,200 yards for the tournament … but the USGA is always known to drastically alter setups depending on what it’d like to see in a particular round. Sitting about an hour away from New York City, Winged Foot is a classic northern design in Mamaroneck by the famous A.W. Tillinghast in 1921. Gil Hanse recently renovated the course in 2015 while keeping Tillinghast’s key work.

We recently saw Tillinghast’s work in a major at Baltusrol in the 2016 PGA Championship won by Jimmy Walker and the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black won by Brooks Koepka. His courses are stern championship tests that value distance and accuracy off the tee and favor lofted approach shots into perched greens with deep hazards around them.

Winged Foot could potentially be Tillinghast’s toughest test. Geoff Ogilvy won the last U.S. Open here in 2006 at 5 over in Phil Mickelson’s biggest letdown for a U.S. Open title. The fairways are generally harder to hit than most Tillinghast courses combined with plenty of distance makes driving a premium. That’s no different than Bethpage where Koepka dominated and could easily find himself at another place that favors his game.

That’s not to say you have to be long to succeed, but even 2006 saw the majority of contenders as long hitters. If you’re not hitting it long, you need to be incredibly accurate to make up for it. That makes SG: Off the Tee a key stat this week.

Winged Foot values the approach shot just as much with the perched greens protected by deep hazards extremely important to hit. Getting it in position to attack the greens is only half the test once players try to hit a decent amount of greens. SG: Approach will once again be looked at heavily.

With multiple long par 4s and potentially cool New York air, Winged Foot should play long. That will make long approach shots a needed skill and proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards should be a key number to look at.

But as you’d expect from a tough course with long holes and only one reachable par 5, scoring will be difficult. While we ignore short game stats many weeks and look for birdie makers, it’s the opposite for a nasty U.S. Open. Scrambling around these treacherous Winged Foot green complexes will be difficult, so SG: Around the Green will have much more importance than usual along with players who excel in Bogey Avoidance. Putting closes the test and those that can save par putts will often find themselves in contention.

The field this week will feature a unique field that combines all the standard invited that would regularly be invited by the USGA along with a large group invited due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the USGA wasn’t able to hold the typical qualifying tournaments that make the U.S. Open “open”, they invited top finishers from various fields on the European Tour, Korn Ferry Tour and other tournaments. Gary Woodland is the defending champion after his win at Pebble Beach and is the No. 25 ranked player in the world.

US Open Power Rankings

20. Matthew Wolff: Showed he can contend at a major with his performance at Harding Park. His ball striking is streaky and has been on most of the time recently … and his driver is always a threat. Ranks 10th in SG: OTT.

19. Abraham Ancer: Yet to be seen if he handles difficult courses very well, but he should have the game that fits this type of test. Inconsistency hurt him through the playoffs, and he needs to figure out his chipping. Ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance.

18. Si Woo Kim: He’s suddenly heading into the form that saw him put on some incredible performances early in his career. Contended at Harding Park and has won a huge event before. A streaky player that you should ride when it’s on. Ranks 10th in SG: APP and 10th in SG: ARG.

17. Harris English: Finished out a breakout season with a 12th at East Lake. His game has never traveled well to U.S. Opens, but he’s clearly better than he’s ever been. Played well in the first major of the year. Ranks 3rd in SG: ARG, 4th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Prox. 200+ yards.

16. Rory McIlroy: He always feels like a threat at any U.S. Open, plus his game began to finally show some form at times at the BMW and East Lake. Still has shown no consistency with his irons and short game since the restart. Ranks 5th in SG: OTT.

15. Tiger Woods: Any tournament that requires you to grind out pars and course management is probably his best shot at wins at this point in his career. That should help him have a chance at Winged Foot, and he’s one of the few with course experience. Has to figure out the putter. Ranks 15th in SG: APP.

14. Patrick Reed: Another guy that usually has his best chance when things are difficult. A few nice results recently including at the PGA. His driver has been really good, but oddly enough the irons have been slacking. Ranks 7th in Bogey Avoidance and 12th in SG: ARG.

13. Jason Day: After a hot stretch that ran through a 4th at the PGA, he struggled in the playoffs and missed the Tour Championship. Gained nearly 8 strokes on approach in the PGA and then lost a combined 14 in Boston and the BMW. Ranks 2nd in SG: ARG and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

12. Sergio Garcia: His game is in a place where everything is clicking quite nicely except for shockingly bad putting … even for him. Does everything well you’d want at Winged Foot, and putting is a bit devalued, so even a mediocre week on the greens could put him in contention. Ranks 7th in SG: OTT and 6th in SG: ARG.

11. Scottie Scheffler: On one of the best stretches of any player in the world and continues to contend in huge events with top names. Finished 2nd outright at East Lake after 4th places finishes at the PGA and in Boston. Ranks 12th in SG: OTT and 20th in SG: APP. (NOTE: Scheffler has withdrawn after a positive COVID-19 test)

10. Viktor Hovland: Still looking to find his ball striking from early in the restart but his driver combination with potentially elite irons could dominate a U.S. Open. Ranks 3rd in SG: APP and 19th in SG: OTT.

9. Hideki Matsuyama: A U.S. Open has always felt like the best fit for him to win a major and he has a 2nd in 2017 at golf’s toughest test. Riding some nice form in with great irons and superb work around the greens. Ranks 9th in SG: APP and 2nd in Prox. 200+ yards.

8. Tony Finau: Tends to find himself in contention at nearly every major and big event. The breakthrough still hasn’t happened, but a U.S. Open is a great spot for him … finished 5th in 2018. Ranks 13th in SG: OTT and 25th in Bogey Avoidance.

7. Collin Morikawa: Hit the ball extremely well at East Lake after a couple rough weeks following his PGA win. He does everything well most of the time, which is going to make him a legitimate at any major. Ranks 6th in SG: APP, 15th in SG: OTT and 14th in Bogey Avoidance.

6. Webb Simpson: His game isn’t seen as great for long U.S. Opens, but he already won one and has played well in others … along with a nice finish at Bethpage last year. Finished 3rd, 6th and 12th in last 3 starts. Ranks 5th in Bogey Avoidance and 18th in SG: APP.

5. Justin Thomas: U.S. Opens seem to be the spot that could be the biggest question mark for his game so far. Hasn’t been great with 2 MCs and 1 top 20 in 5 tries, and difficult conditions are statistically his worse. But he’s just too good to think he can’t win one. Ranks 1st in SG: APP and 6th in SG: ARG.

4. Daniel Berger: His ascension to one of the best players in the world has been jarring and quite impressive. Contends nearly every week and his overall ball striking has been spectacular. Finished 6th at the 2018 U.S. Open. Ranks 8th in SG: APP, 17th in SG: OTT and 10th in Bogey Avoidance.

3. Xander Schauffele: Continued his unreal performances at East Lake with what would have been a 3-stroke win in a regular tournament. Did it with mostly putting, so he’s still looking to completely find his ball striking. He’s been awesome in U.S. Opens with finishes of 3rd, 6th and 5th in 3 tries. Ranks 4th in SG: OTT, 10th in SG: P and 1st in Bogey Avoidance.

2. Jon Rahm: This feels like the perfect spot for him to breakthrough for his first major. He’s one of the best drivers in the world and has a superb short game. Finished 3rd at Pebble Beach last year and is coming off of 6th, 1st and 4th place finishes in the playoffs. Ranks 2nd in SG: OTT, 8th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance and 3rd in Prox. 200+ yards.

1. Dustin Johnson: There’s really no way you can’t put him 1st with his current form. Finishes of 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st in his last 4 events. Everything is clicking and his best stuff is some of the most dominant we’ve seen outside of a man named Tiger. Has a win and a 3rd in his last 4 U.S. Opens. Ranks 2nd in SG: APP, 7th in SG: OTT and 1st in Prox. 200+ yards.

*All stats are from tournaments since the restart on June 11

US Open betting odds

US Open Winner

Game
09/17/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Dustin Johnson
Bet now
+850
Bet now
+850
Bet now
+800
Jon Rahm
Bet now
+900
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+900
Justin Thomas
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Xander Schauffele
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Collin Morikawa
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+1600
Rory McIlroy
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+1600
Webb Simpson
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2500
Bryson DeChambeau
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2200
Daniel Berger
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2800
Jason Day
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3800
Bet now
+4000
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3400
Bet now
+3500
Patrick Cantlay
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+2700
Bet now
+2800
Tommy Fleetwood
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3500
Hideki Matsuyama
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3300
Tony Finau
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3300
Tyrell Hatton
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3900
Bet now
+4000
Adam Scott
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Justin Rose
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4000
Tiger Woods
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4800
Bet now
+4500
Paul Casey
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+4800
Bet now
+5000
Viktor Hovland
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+6500
Bet now
+5000
Harris English
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+6600
Rickie Fowler
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+6500
Bet now
+5000
Sungjae Im
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+7000

View odds for every golfer at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM

Up next on the PGA Tour

The PGA Tour will head to the Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship at Corales Golf Club. Typically played alongside the WGC Match Play event in March, the Corales will now get its own week from the rescheduling. Graeme McDowell is the defending champion.