PGA Tour Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Top 20 Golfers

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Each week in our golf power rankings, we will highlight the top players on the PGA TOUR in order of likeliness to win the tournament.

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Factors at play on the rankings are (in no order):

  • Recent form: How the player has performed in various aspects of his game in recent weeks.
  • Course history: How the player has performed at the host course if he has played there in the past.
  • Course fit: Used as a secondary or backup to course history, fit looks at certain skills that translate to success on the host course.
  • Strokes gained: Strokes gained will come into play in all of the factors above. Unless otherwise noted, strokes gained stats are taken from the player’s last 50 rounds and are a way to use golf statistics relative to the field and round played.

Using the guidelines above to create a statistical model, value can be found in the betting market by highlighting players whose outlook for the tournament may be flying under the radar to the general public.

The weighted model this week includes:

  • 20% SG: Approach
  • 15% Greens In Regulations Gained
  • 15% SG: Putting (Poa)
  • 15% SG: Around The Green
  • 15% Fairways Gained
  • 10% SG: Ball Striking (Under 7,200 Yards)
  • 10% Proximity: 100-125 Yards

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am info

Scroll to the bottom to find odds comparisons for every golfer in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

  • Date: February 2-5
  • Location: Pebble Beach, California
  • Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course
  • How to watch: CBS, GOLF Channel, ESPN+
  • Purse: $9,000,000
  • Defending champ: Tom Hoge

Golf Power Rankings: Pebble Beach Pro-Am

20. Kevin Yu : Continues to be a really intriguing player if he’s able to hole some putts. Yu has shown a lot of life on short coastal courses with a 7th in Puerto Rico, 3rd at Bermuda and 21st at the Sony. Experience at Pebble Beach with the U.S. Open. Strong all-around ball striker. Ranks 6th in GIRs Gained. 

19. Erik van Rooyen : Suffered a neck injury last year and really struggled before he took some time off for it. Finally saw him back to his usual self a couple weeks ago with a strong 6th at The American Express while gaining in all categories. He’s a sneaky strong play at short, tight courses. Gained 5.6 SG: APP at the U.S. Open here. Ranks 4th in SG: APP. 

18. Thomas Detry : The runner-up in Bermuda has had a very strong rookie season with 7 consecutive made cuts. He’s currently failing to manage much upside in a particular category, but he’s been very consistent and is showing no weaknesses in his game. This is the type of field he could get hot and win in. Ranks 37th in GIRs Gained. 

17. Nick Taylor : The 2020 winner at Pebble Beach failed to get much going for a couple of seasons after his win, but he has quickly shown some life as of late with a 6th at Fortinet and 7th at the Sony Open. His numbers from Waialae were extremely intriguing and make him a real threat this week. Finished 14th at Pebble last year. Ranks 10th in SG: BS. 

16. Greyson Sigg : Sigg was right in the mix heading into the final round here last year before having a very rough Sunday and falling to 33rd. These short courses are where he can excel if the putter gets hot. Rarely puts a wrong foot forward with his ball striking accuracy. Missed his first cut of the season at PGA West but gained 3.2 SG: APP. Ranks 19th in Fairways. 

15. Brendon Todd : One of the first names you’ll think of when considering short, accurate hitters who can get hot on the greens, Todd had some solid finishes last year. Poa isn’t the surface he’s known for winning on, but Todd has been okay at Pebble with a pair of Top 10s and a 16th last year while losing strokes on the greens. Ranks 5th in Fairways and 8th in Proximity: 100-125 Yards. 

14. Joel Dahmen : Dahmen will make his first start of 2023 after recently becoming a dad recently. He was really playing nicely to end the year with a 3rd, 9th and 5th in his last 3 starts. Becoming one of the best coastal course players on Tour as evidenced with his Corales win and those Top 5s in Mexico and Sea Island. Finished 6th here last year. Ranks 2nd in Fairways and 2nd in GIRs Gained. 

13. Russell Knox : One of the biggest horses for courses guys on Tour, Knox has a true love for Pebble Beach. It really shows with his history there with 3 Top 15s since 2018. Knox’s irons are on fire as of late, and it’s safe to say he’d be contending often at these short tracks if his driver would cooperate. Ranks 1st in Proximity: 100-125 Yards, 2nd in SG: APP and 3rd in GIRs Gained. 

12. Maverick McNealy : Many would expect the local McNealy higher this week, but his poor wedges and irons continue to concern me. He’s actually likely better equipped contending on bigger courses currently, but he has some magic at Pebble Beach with a 5th and 2nd here since 2020. Elite Poa putter. Ranks 10th in SG: P. 

11. Alex Smalley : Smalley was playing some of his best golf to end the year with 11th, 4th and 5th in his final 3 tournaments. Surprised with a missed cut at Sony, but he’s gotten it going again since with some lovely ball striking. One of the most dependable ball strikers in this field that should contend if the putter shows up. Ranks 1st in GIRs Gained and 9th in SG: BS. 

10. Ben Griffin : Griffin continues to really impress me as his game has traveled well to any course he’s played as a rookie on the PGA Tour. He’s finished worse than 32nd just twice since his 2nd event of the season, and the ball striking numbers have been positive in 8 consecutive starts. Great course fit for his game. Ranks 3rd in GIRs Gained and 5th in the model. 

9. David Lipsky : Lipsky’s strong play as of late and unique skillset puts him 1st overall in the model this week. He looked like a potential winner at Sony until finishing 4th, and he does all of the exact stuff you want from someone at this tournament. Finished 24th here last year while gaining 6.5 strokes putting. Ranks 3rd in Fairways, 6th in SG: APP and 6th in Proximity: 100-125 Yards. 

8. Viktor Hovland : Definitely pretty low for someone as good as him in this field, but I’m just not sure his current work around the greens will translate here if he doesn’t get his absolute work from the irons. Hovland’s ball striking hasn’t quite been up to his standard as consistently lately. Ranks 59th in the model.  

7. Jordan Spieth : Spieth’s course history is the only real reason he finds himself this high in the rankings. He hasn’t gained on approach since the Tour Championship and just isn’t showing much in any category that should make him a favorite. But we know he loves this place at the end of the day and brings out his best for the tournament. Ranks 14th in SG: P and 31st in the model. 

6. Matt Kuchar : Outside of a surprising missed cut at his home tournament in Sea Island, Kuchar has been playing some lovely golf since the Playoffs last year. The irons and wedges seem to be holding their own, and we know what he can do on and around the greens. Best finish here was a 6th in 2007. Ranks 1st in SG: P and 9th in the model. 

5. Andrew Putnam : The short game specialist has been doing enough at times with the irons lately to contend. He lost 4.4 strokes ball striking at Sony while finishing 4th. So we could expect a similar result at Pebble if his wedges can catch some fire. Finished 6th here last year by lighting up the side courses. Ranks 4th in the model, 13th in SG: ARG and 14th in Fairways. 

4. Matt Fitzpatrick : Fitzpatrick doesn’t grade out well here this week due to a very poor trend in iron play on the PGA Tour dating back to the BMW, but we know his history at Pebble and form on the European Tour. Finished 6th here last year which really boosted him to an incredible season. Ranks 35th in SG: BS and 36th in SG: P. 

3. Seamus Power : Power was able to quiet some concerns of him losing 5.5 SG: APP at the Sentry by going and playing solid golf in Europe for a couple of weeks. He led by 5 at the halfway point here last year before dropping off to 9th on the weekend. He was playing incredible golf in the fall on the short, coastal courses. Ranks 7th in SG: ARG. 

2. Justin Rose : Rosey continues to look really impressive as he tries to regain some lost form as he ages a bit. The signs have been encouraging with great work on and around the greens and decent irons. The driver can be a wild card, so that may be the key this week. Finished 3rd at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble. Ranks 7th in Fairways and 13th in SG: P. 

1. Tom Hoge : The defending champion feels like he should be the favorite when considering what he was doing in the fall and his impressive start with a 3rd at the Sentry. The irons have been absolutely incredible, and I’d be stunned if he’s not in the mix with decent putting. Ranks 1st in SG: APP, 4th in Proximity: 100-125 Yards and 7th in SG: BS.

*All stats are from a player’s last 36 rounds.

Course Preview: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula

The PGA Tour stays in California and heads up the coast to one of the world’s most iconic courses. This week, players will get to play the beautiful Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Always considered one of the best courses in the world, Pebble Beach will see two rounds from all the players this week – one between Thursday and Saturday and one on Sunday. 

Last week’s Farmers Insurance Open gave us quite the up-and-down week and quite the compelling weekend despite the lackluster field. As Torrey Pines typically does, it brought out the best from the best in the world as most notable names found themselves in the mix on Sunday.  After leading all week, Sam Ryder folded down the stretch and allowed Max Homa to grab another California victory. Jon Rahm nearly charged back from an awful Thursday to get his third win in three weeks, but a rough Sunday dropped him down the board. 

Pebble Beach Golf Links was designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant and opened way back in 1919. Since then, it is often discussed as the best course in America along with Pine Valley and Augusta National. It has hosted the Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the PGA Tour since 1947. The course has also hosted six U.S. Opens and one PGA Championship. For the regular Pro-Am event, Pebble Beach plays as a Par 72 at just over 7,000 yards. The shorter yardage and shorter rough makes it a much different challenge than the U.S. Open setup. 

Spyglass Hill will get one round for each of the players. Stats regarding the course and focus overall won’t be too high since we don’t get advanced statistics from the rounds. It also plays at just over 7,000 yards at a Par 72. Trent Jones Sr. designed the course in 1966 and it’s a bit more of a standard track than Pebble Beach with average sized fairways and greens. Spyglass seems to favor distance much more than the other two courses with much more room when it’s not along the coast. 

Monterey Peninsula was designed by Baldock and Neville in 1959 and runs as a Par 71 at just under 7,000 yards. It features the largest greens of the three and can be one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour if conditions are benign. The course has five Par 3s and four Par 5s. You’re going to want your player to really attack Monterrey if conditions allow it since you’ll often see winners fire a really low number on this course in their rotation. Monterey had some bad damage from a storm recently, but it’s expected to be ready to go this week. 

The first obvious trait of Pebble Beach and the main thing to focus on this week is it’s a second shot golf course. Most weeks on Power Rankings, I’m saying right away that either Driving Distance or Driving Accuracy is one of the main stats we’ll look at, but Pebble Beach neutralizes that. 

While powerful players like Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods have dominated at Pebble, they’re also dominant iron players. Distance is always a bonus on holes that allow it, but much of Pebble – and the other two courses – does not, so we need to focus on approaches for the week. I use a bit of Fairways Gained in the model just to put an emphasis on guys who will place themselves in favorable spots for aggressive wedge play. 

I’ll be looking at a strong combination of Greens in Regulations Gained and SG: Approach for this rotation of tracks. With the tiny greens at Pebble Beach, simply having the ability to hit the middle of greens and taking chances with your putter leads to more success than pin hunting and finding tricky areas around the green. The winner’s average finish in greens hit over the last 11 years is 6th, while proximity is 16th

Along with those stats, we’ll also look at Proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards as a key number. The largest distribution of approaches at Pebble come from there, and I’d expect that to be close to true at the other two courses as well. Last week at Torrey was a long-iron showcase … this is a wedge showcase. The distribution of approaches from wedge ranges this week is astronomically high compared to the Tour average.  

The short game is a much bigger factor this week than usual. SG: Putting and SG: Around the Green will be equally measured and is a bit more predictive at Pebble Beach than most courses. Knowing these Poa Annua greens and being good on that type of grass can be very important, and scrambling in general around these tiny greens is difficult. We’ve seen some masterful performances at Pebble with the short game from guys like Gary Woodland in the U.S. Open that really pushed them to the victory. 

In my Mixed Condition Model, I also threw in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking on courses shorter than 7,200 yards. These short tracks really bring on a different type of tournament on the PGA Tour with many players given a much fairer shot at contending than on the longest courses. Seeing who handles the more technical, second-shot courses can give us an advantage at Pebble. We saw a decent comparison a few weeks back at Waialae, and we’ve seen quite a bit of crossover success with these two tournaments. 

The field this week at Pebble Beach will again be of the weakest of the season for a regular event. While Pebble has long gotten the short end of the stick due to where it is on the schedule, it’s even worse this season with the addition of elevated events. The next two tournaments on the schedule are elevated, so most players are taking a week off to prepare. Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick will headline the field. Tom Hoge is defending his maiden title as the No. 29 ranked player in the world.

Up next on the PGA Tour

The PGA Tour will head to Arizona for its usual trip on Super Bowl weekend to the Waste Management Phoenix Open – except this time around, the Super Bowl will also be in Phoenix. TPC Scottsdale is always an electric host and should have even more buzz with the Chiefs and Eagles in town. The field is expected to be top-notch with the newly added elevated status and massive purse in play. Scottie Scheffler will defend his breakout title from last year as the No. 2 ranked player in the world.

Pebble Beach odds