NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers A Lock?

Futures, Favorites, And How To Bet

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Quarterbacks are littered all over the odds board for league MVP with Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Joe Burrow owning some of the lowest prices at sportsbooks. Rams WR Cooper Kupp is the non-QB highest on the board as he checks in at +8000 at most books. A non-QB has not won the award since RB Adrian Peterson raised the hardware in 2012.

NFL MVP odds

Here are live NFL MVP odds. Click on the price(s) you like below to bet now.

MVP futures report (Updated January 10)

The Favorites

Aaron Rodgers (): Westwood Radio host Hub Arkush effectively ensured that other voters will put any personal bias aside and vote for Rodgers, who clearly had the best statistical year of any QB with a 37:4 TD:INT ratio and 111.1 passer rating while steering his team to the top seed in the NFC.

Tom Brady (): A 44-year-old QB leading the defending champs to the second seed in the NFC despite a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball is a nice story, but Brady’s numbers declined while Rodgers was nearly perfect down the stretch.

The Underdogs

Cooper Kupp (): While he came up short of Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record, Kupp did secure the first receiving Triple Crown since 2005 with 145 catches, 1,947 yards, and 16 receiving TDs while pacing the Rams to a division title.

Joe Burrow (): The sophomore QB heads into his first playoff start after producing 971 passing yards at a 78.8% completion rate with eight TDs to beat the Ravens and Chiefs. Burrow sat out the Bengals’ season finale, which diminished his odds.

Jonathan Taylor (): The Colts rode Taylor into playoff contention, but the RB couldn’t carry them in another disastrous trip to Jacksonville, as their playoff hopes evaporated despite Taylor posting a solid 5.1 YPC average in his opportunities.

Josh Allen (): In Buffalo’s 11 wins this season, Allen accounted for 32 total TDs with a 99.6 passer rating. He committed nine turnovers and took 16 sacks with an 81.5 passer rating over six losses.

Patrick Mahomes (): The Chiefs offense came alive in the final weeks of the season with Mahomes taking a more conservative approach, but they lost out on a chance at the No. 1 seed in the AFC when that conservative approach proved insufficient in Cincinnati. The Chiefs defense essentially bailed out their offense too many times for Mahomes to get many MVP votes.

Kyler Murray (): The Cardinals dropped four of their last five games with Murray posting a 5:3 TD:INT ratio and taking 12 sacks in those contests.

Dak Prescott (): Prescott completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 851 yards and 12 TDs without a pick over his final three starts. His costly fumble led to a loss against the Cardinals, but he seems to be firing on all cylinders heading into the playoffs.

Matthew Stafford (): The Rams backed into a division title with a 5-4 record down the stretch and Stafford tossed 13 picks in those games.

Derek Carr (): The Raiders won four straight close games to squeak into the playoffs and Carr made plenty of clutch throws, but also committed six turnovers with an 87.3 passer rating in that span.

How the odds have changed

Here we will examine how the NFL MVP odds have changed in the weeks leading up to the season and during the 2021 pro football campaign. First are the opening odds, followed by current odds.

  • Patrick Mahomes +500
  • Aaron Rodgers +800
  • Josh Allen +1300
  • Russell Wilson +1300
  • Matthew Stafford +1500
  • Tom Brady +1600
  • Lamar Jackson +1600
  • Dak Prescott +1700
  • Justin Herbert +1800
  • Kyler Murray +1800
  • Ryan Tannehill +2500
  • Derrick Henry +3300
  • Christian McCaffrey +3300
  • Baker Mayfield +4000
  • Joe Burrow +5000
  • Kirk Cousins +5000
  • Derek Carr +8000
  • Alvin Kamara +8000
  • Davante Adams +10000

Here are updated NFL MVP odds.

  • Aaron Rodgers -480
  • Jonathan Taylor +10000
  • Tom Brady +380
  • Josh Allen +10000
  • Patrick Mahomes +5000
  • Dak Prescott +8000
  • Cooper Kupp +8000
  • Joe Burrow +1000
  • Matthew Stafford +10000
  • Justin Herbert +10000
  • Ryan Tannehill +25000
PlayerOpening OddsOct. 12 OddsNov. 8 OddsDec. 6 OddsDec. 27 OddsJan. 3 OddsJan. 10 Odds
Patrick Mahomes+500+1800+6500+1200+1200+5000+5000
Aaron Rodgers+800+1200+1200+750-175-400-480
Josh Allen+1300+450+350+600+1200+5000+10000
Russell Wilson+1300+25000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Matthew Stafford+1500+1000+800+1600+5000+10000OTB
Tom Brady+1600+800+350+150+750+500+380
Lamar Jackson+1600+1200+1000+2200OTBOTBOTB
Dak Prescott+1700+700+1200+1200+1800+10000+8000
Justin Herbert+1800+700+1400+1600+6500+10000+10000
Kyler Murray+1800+500+750+800+20000+8000OTB
Ryan Tannehill+2500+10000+3500+10000+25000+25000OTB
Derrick Henry+3300+6500OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Christian McCaffrey+3300+25000+25000OTBOTBOTBOTB
Baker Mayfield+4000+6500+25000+50000OTBOTBOTB
Jameis Winston+4000+8000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Joe Burrow+5000+6500+6500+10000+3500+1000+2500
Kirk Cousins+5000+5000+20000+20000+25000OTBOTB
Tua Tagovailoa+5000+20000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Dalvin Cook+6600+20000+50000OTBOTBOTBOTB
Derek Carr+8000+6500+5000+10000+50000+25000OTB
Sam Darnold+8000+8000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Alvin Kamara+8000+10000+20000OTBOTBOTBOTB
Trevor Lawrence+8000+50000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Davante Adams+10000+10000+50000+50000OTBOTBOTB
Saquon Barkley+10000+5000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTB

MVP futures betting

NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2021.

All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Twelve of the last 14 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took monumental, career seasons to do it.

Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020).

How to bet NFL MVP futures

Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.

Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.

Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.

Where can you bet on MVP futures?

NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab.  Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.

How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?

The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.

Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.

How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?

That said, stats are usually the tie-breaker. Rodgers passed for a league-high 48 TDs. The next closest player was Wilson with 40. Rodgers also threw just five INTs and may have gotten some sentimentality votes over the younger Mahomes, who likely has many more MVP awards coming his way in the years to come.