Bills QB Josh Allen looks like a lock to win the NFL MVP award two weeks into the season. The only issue is, it’s two weeks into the season. A lot can change over the course of the next 16 weeks.
Allen is +350 after dismantling the Titans on MNF. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is +500. But there are also some new faces atop the NFL MVP odds boards. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who was +2000 to win MVP on Sept. 6, is now +800. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is also now in the MVP conversation after leading a comeback win over the Ravens. Tagovailoa was +5000 to win the award just prior to the start of the season but is now +2000.
NFL MVP odds
Here are NFL MVP odds for the 2022 – 2023 pro football season. Compare prices and click to bet.
MVP futures report
Below are NFL betting futures to win MVP for top candidates.
Josh Allen (): In his first season without Brian Daboll calling plays, Allen looks to be even more in control with a 75.4% completion rate and 123.7 rating while averaging 307 passing YPG. He’s gained a lot of steam in the early MVP race with the Bills looking like deserved Super Bowl favorites.
Patrick Mahomes (): Spreading the ball around more without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has tossed seven TDs to six different players with a 73% completion rate and 127.9 passer rating while averaging 297.5 passing YPG through two weeks.
Jalen Hurts (): The Eagles put on a show on Monday night with Hurts leading the way, causing his MVP odds to get cut in half at some books. The dynamic dual-threat has already rushed for 147 yards and three TDs while showcasing a much-improved arm to become the best candidate out of the weaker NFC.
NFL MVP Contenders
Justin Herbert (): Herbert gutted through a ribs injury on Thursday night to open Week 2 and still delivered some incredible throws to give the Chargers a chance at KC. With a distinct possibility that he might miss time at some point in the coming weeks, his odds have lengthened well behind Mahomes and Allen.
Lamar Jackson (): It’s hardly Jackson’s fault that the Ravens defense coughed up 21 points in the fourth quarter to choke away a home win over the Dolphins. The prolific dual-threat QB went 21-for-29 for 318 yards and 3 TD (142.6 rating) while adding 119 rushing yards and another TD on the ground.
Tua Tagovailoa (): After struggling in the first half against Baltimore’s aggressive defense, Tua caught fire and finished with 469 yards and six touchdowns while making Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the first teammates to both tally 10-plus receptions, 150-plus yards, and two TDs in the same game.
Tom Brady (): The Bucs are off to a 2-0 start with Brady posting below-average numbers (59% completion rate, 201 passing YPG, 2 TD, INT, 82.8 rating). His receiving corps is ravaged by injuries already and he’s almost assuredly reaching out to old buddy Rob Gronkowski for help.
Aaron Rodgers (): The Packers bounced back from another rough Week 1 loss with Aaron Jones sparking the offense. Rodgers (19-for-25, 234 yards, 2 TD) was efficient against the Bears, but he’s not yet producing at an MVP level.
Joe Burrow (): Through two games, Burrow has absorbed 13 sacks while getting pressured at one of the highest rates in the NFL. His Bengals are off to an 0-2 start even though he’s provided some clutch play down the stretch of those games.
Matthew Stafford (): While he started 12-for-12 against the Falcons, Stafford eventually tossed two interceptions to extend his dubious mark of multi-pick games during the regular season. He could put up huge numbers in Sean McVay’s system if he takes care of the ball.
Kyler Murray (): With DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) out and limited weaponry at his disposal, Murray almost single-handedly led the Cardinals back from a 20-0 deficit to force OT and eventually defeat the Raiders. He finished with 277 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, but his legs did far more damage than the box score would indicate.
Russell Wilson (): Denver’s offense was booed at home in Week 2 with Wilson struggling to produce against tight man coverage. Nathaniel Hackett and new OC Justin Outten have a lot of work to do to set Wilson up for success.
Kirk Cousins (): There is plenty of reason for optimism in Kevin O’Connell’s first season with the Vikings, but Cousins and the coaching staff weren’t necessarily prepared for Philly’s aggressive scheme on Monday night, resulting in a weak 58.7% completion rate and three interceptions.
Derek Carr (): Carr was masterful throughout the first three quarters against Arizona’s tissue-soft defense. He struggled with turnovers in Week 1, but otherwise looks sharp under Josh McDaniels.
Most Valuable Player Underdogs
Jimmy Garoppolo (): Trey Lance (ankle) suffered a gruesome injury and Garoppolo will step in as the starter for the Niners. He dealt with his own injuries last year and has much to prove if he wants to earn a big contract.
Trevor Lawrence (): After struggling with his efficiency in the season opener at Washington, Lawrence completed 25 of 30 passes for 235 yards and 2 TDs to blow past the Colts.
Matt Ryan (): The Colts were shut out in Week 2, as Ryan only threw for 195 yards with three picks in a pathetic performance at Jacksonville.
Derrick Henry (): While he scored an early TD, Henry only managed 1.9 YPC Monday night against the Bills and was basically phased out of the game since the Titans couldn’t keep up.
Cooper Kupp (): The reigning Triple Crown winner continued to put up huge numbers with 11 catches for 108 yards and 2 TDs, although he lost a fumble in the fourth quarter that could have cost the Rams the game.
Stefon Diggs (): With Gabe Davis (ankle) sitting, Diggs completely shredded the Titans secondary even when he faced double coverage, walking away with 12 catches for 148 yards and three TDs in the rout.
Daniel Jones (): The Giants have won a pair of close contests to start Brian Daboll’s tenure and Danny Dimes has been efficient with a 71% completion rate to manage those games.
Mac Jones (): The Patriots continue to employ a very conservative offense under misfit OC Matt Patricia and Jones has managed that unit with lackluster results so far.
Jameis Winston (): Now playing through a back injury, Winston was loose with the football on multiple occasions and hardly effective on deep throws. There is a possibility the Saints use Taysom Hill more often under center in the coming weeks.
Justin Jefferson (): Kupp and Jefferson seem destined to duel throughout the season for the top receiving stats in the league, with Jefferson benefitting from Kevin O’Connell’s savvy scheme.
Carson Wentz (): Washington has struggled early in both games to start this season and Wentz has come alive in the second half to spark a Week 2 comeback and provide a close win in Week 1.
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MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2022.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Fourteen of the last 15 MVPs have been QBs. Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only one to break the grip over that span.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020-21).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.
How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?
Stats also matter in a big way. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers had an incredible 37:4 touchdown to interception ratio last season. Rodgers had +800 odds to win MVP prior to the start of last season.