Aaron Rodgers will be looking to score his third consecutive NFL MVP award in the 2022 – 2023 season. The Packers superstar QB is not the favorite for this coming season, however, as Bills signal-caller Josh Allen had +700 NFL MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook on April 29. Rodgers was +1000.
Titans RB Derrick Henry had the lowest odds to win NFL MVP for a non-quarterback as he was +4000 on April 29.
Next season NFL MVP odds: 2022 -2023
Here are next season NFL MVP odds. Compare prices and click to bet.
How the odds changed
Here is a look at how odds to win NFL MVP changed throughout the course of last season. Here first were the opening odds.
- Patrick Mahomes +500
- Aaron Rodgers +800
- Josh Allen +1300
- Russell Wilson +1300
- Matthew Stafford +1500
- Tom Brady +1600
- Lamar Jackson +1600
- Dak Prescott +1700
- Justin Herbert +1800
- Kyler Murray +1800
- Ryan Tannehill +2500
- Derrick Henry +3300
- Christian McCaffrey +3300
- Baker Mayfield +4000
- Joe Burrow +5000
- Kirk Cousins +5000
- Derek Carr +8000
- Alvin Kamara +8000
- Davante Adams +10000
| Player | Opening Odds | Oct. 12 Odds | Nov. 8 Odds | Dec. 6 Odds | Dec. 27 Odds | Jan. 3 Odds | Jan. 10 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 | +1800 | +6500 | +1200 | +1200 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +800 | +1200 | +1200 | +750 | -175 | -400 | -480 |
| Josh Allen | +1300 | +450 | +350 | +600 | +1200 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Russell Wilson | +1300 | +25000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 | +1000 | +800 | +1600 | +5000 | +10000 | OTB |
| Tom Brady | +1600 | +800 | +350 | +150 | +750 | +500 | +380 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 | +1200 | +1000 | +2200 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Dak Prescott | +1700 | +700 | +1200 | +1200 | +1800 | +10000 | +8000 |
| Justin Herbert | +1800 | +700 | +1400 | +1600 | +6500 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 | +500 | +750 | +800 | +20000 | +8000 | OTB |
| Ryan Tannehill | +2500 | +10000 | +3500 | +10000 | +25000 | +25000 | OTB |
| Derrick Henry | +3300 | +6500 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Christian McCaffrey | +3300 | +25000 | +25000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 | +6500 | +25000 | +50000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Jameis Winston | +4000 | +8000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Joe Burrow | +5000 | +6500 | +6500 | +10000 | +3500 | +1000 | +2500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 | +5000 | +20000 | +20000 | +25000 | OTB | OTB |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +5000 | +20000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Dalvin Cook | +6600 | +20000 | +50000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Derek Carr | +8000 | +6500 | +5000 | +10000 | +50000 | +25000 | OTB |
| Sam Darnold | +8000 | +8000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Alvin Kamara | +8000 | +10000 | +20000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Trevor Lawrence | +8000 | +50000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Davante Adams | +10000 | +10000 | +50000 | +50000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Saquon Barkley | +10000 | +5000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2021.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Twelve of the last 14 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took monumental, career seasons to do it.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.
How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?
That said, stats are usually the tie-breaker. Rodgers passed for a league-high 48 TDs. The next closest player was Wilson with 40. Rodgers also threw just five INTs and may have gotten some sentimentality votes over the younger Mahomes, who likely has many more MVP awards coming his way in the years to come.