We are six weeks in to the 2021 NFL season and sports bettors are now getting concrete evidence as to which teams and players will rule the campaign. Quarterbacks are littered all over the NFL MVP odds boards with Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen owning the lowest prices at most sportsbooks. Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry has the lowest NFL MVP odds for a non-QB as he was +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook Tuesday morning.
NFL MVP odds
Here are live NFL MVP odds for the 2021 regular season. Click on the price(s) you like below to bet now.
NFL MVP odds futures report (Updated October 19)
The Favorites
Dak Prescott (): While he struggled to finish in the red zone, Dak Prescott threw for 445 yards and a pair of long TDs to CeeDee Lamb while helping the Cowboys post the most scrimmage yards ever (567) against a Bill Belichick-coached team. Dak is averaging 282 passing YPG with a 13:3 TD:INT ratio and 120 passer rating during a five-game win streak.
Kyler Murray (): The Cardinals remain undefeated after dismantling the Browns in Cleveland. Murray has 7 TD passes without a turnover (119.3 passer rating) over his last three starts and should smoke the Texans this Sunday before lining up to face reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers a week from Thursday.
Josh Allen (): Even in a loss, Allen continued his strong case for MVP with 353 passing yards and 3 total TDs. He added 26 rushing yards against the Titans and dove to nearly produce a clutch first down that likely would have sealed the game for Buffalo. While the Bills came up just short, they should still be considered the AFC favorites.
Tom Brady (): The defending champs are rolling on offense with Brady helping to compensate for a struggling and injury-riddled defensive secondary. The GOAT is playing some of the best ball of his storied career with 2,064 passing yards and 17 TDs through six weeks of action.
Matthew Stafford (): Now that Russell Wilson (finger) is on IR, Stafford leads all active QBs with a 116.6 passer rating. The Rams have a case as the most complete team in football and Stafford’s presence has clearly put them over the top as Super Bowl contenders.
Aaron Rodgers (): The reigning MVP is still the king of the NFC North and he let Bears fans hear about it after rushing for a game-clinching score in Chicago last Sunday. Rodgers is completing 69% of his passes with 12 TDs and 1 INT while leading the Packers to five straight wins.
Lamar Jackson (): With Jackson showing improved accuracy, the Ravens offense has taken off in recent weeks. He shredded an injury-diminished Colts secondary for 442 passing yards and 4 TDs, then burned the Chargers for 51 rushing yards in an easy win to showcase his dual skill set.
Patrick Mahomes (): With the Chiefs defense struggling, Mahomes has been trying to do a bit too much and he’s already committed 9 turnovers this season. He’s still averaging 312.7 passing YPG while hoisting 40.3 attempts per game, so the volume will be there for Mahomes to try and play his way back to the top of the MVP conversation.
The Underdogs
Justin Herbert (): The Chargers came crashing back to Earth in a trip to Baltimore, with Herbert completing a season-low 56.4% of his passes for 195 yards. Mike Williams re-aggravated a knee injury and his absence could seriously hurt Herbert’s ability to get the ball downfield.
Derrick Henry (): The first non-QB on NFL MVP odds boards, Henry is making a strong case for consideration by averaging 168.8 scrimmage YPG with 10 rushing TDs over his last five appearances. His biggest performances have come in high profile games at Seattle and against the Bills.
Kirk Cousins (): Dalvin Cook (ankle) returned to his workhorse role in a narrow win for the Vikings over the Panthers, but Cousins still did his part, and he’s averaging 324 passing YPG with 4 TDs and 1 INT over his last two outings.
Davante Adams (): Quite arguably the best receiver in football, Adams is averaging 122.4 receiving YPG with 41 catches during Green Bay’s five-game win streak.
Teddy Bridgewater (): The Broncos have dropped three straight after their 3-0 start and Bridgewater was under siege constantly in a loss to the Raiders on Sunday. He committed 4 turnovers, but did complete 71.4% of his pass attempts.
Derek Carr (): There is a solid narrative in place for Carr if he can continue to post huge numbers despite losing his head coach and play-caller (Jon Gruden) in the middle of the season. Carr only trails Brady with 1,964 passing yards and he’s averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.
Joe Burrow (): The Bengals continue to play well in all phases, which apparently hurts Burrow’s case because he has a lot of talent around him. Still, if they can pull ahead of the injured Browns and vie for the AFC North crown, the Bengals should present an MVP candidate.
Baker Mayfield (): The Browns offense is falling apart with injuries across the roster. If Mayfield can somehow keep this sinking ship afloat he could make a case for MVP.
Jameis Winston (): Winston has been lethal in the red zone with a 12:3 TD:INT ratio and the Saints are expected to get Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith back from injury in the coming weeks.
How the odds have changed
Here we will examine how the NFL MVP odds have changed in the weeks leading up to the season and during the 2021 pro football campaign.
| Player | Opening Odds | Oct. 12 Odds | Oct. 19 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +800 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Josh Allen | +1300 | +450 | +500 |
| Russell Wilson | +1300 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Tom Brady | +1600 | +800 | +800 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Dak Prescott | +1700 | +700 | +450 |
| Justin Herbert | +1800 | +700 | +1400 |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 | +500 | +450 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +2500 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Derrick Henry | +3300 | +6500 | +2500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +3300 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 | +6500 | +10000 |
| Jameis Winston | +4000 | +8000 | +10000 |
| Joe Burrow | +5000 | +6500 | +10000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +5000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +6600 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Derek Carr | +8000 | +6500 | +6500 |
| Sam Darnold | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +8000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Davante Adams | +10000 | +10000 | +6500 |
| Saquon Barkley | +10000 | +5000 | +10000 |
MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2021.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Twelve of the last 14 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took monumental, career seasons to do it.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.
How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?
That said, stats are usually the tie-breaker. Rodgers passed for a league-high 48 TDs. The next closest player was Wilson with 40. Rodgers also threw just five INTs and may have gotten some sentimentality votes over the younger Mahomes, who likely has many more MVP awards coming his way in the years to come.