Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+150) now stands alone atop NFL Most Valuable Player boards. NFL MVP odds boards in late November also have Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+350), Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (+600) and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+600) in the mix. San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey (+3000) has the lowest Most Valuable Player odds among non-quarterbacks.
View live MVP odds for all of the top NFL players below.
NFL MVP odds
Here are live NFL MVP odds for this season. Jalen Hurts (+150) is the current betting favorite.
Here are the current NFL MVP odds favorites.
- Jalen Hurts (+150)
- Patrick Mahomes (+350)
- Dak Prescott (+600)
- Lamar Jackson (+600)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+800)
Here is the latest on all of the top MVP candidates.
Jalen Hurts: For a second straight week, Hurts led the Eagles back from an early double-digit deficit to beat a quality opponent. Last year’s MVP runner-up has now won 14 straight regular season games against teams with winning records. He’s rushed for 130 yards and five touchdowns over his last three wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills.
Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs offense had a sleepy start in Las Vegas before Mahomes caught fire to produce 298 passing yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a 122.8 rating in a 31-17 win over a divisional rival.
Lamar Jackson: While the Ravens have been excellent on both sides of the ball, Jackson doesn’t have tremendous raw numbers and his stats over the past three weeks (221.3 passing YPG, 4 TD, 2 INT, 90.8 rating) aren’t necessarily enough to make a case for MVP over the top quarterbacks listed ahead of him.
Dak Prescott: Prescott has finally joined the ranks of MVP favorites after sitting with odds of +3000 or longer during the start of his ridiculous hot streak. The Cowboys quarterback is sporting a 124.8 passer rating while averaging 320.8 passing YPG and posting a 17:2 TD:INT ratio over his last five starts.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua owns a 117.3 passer rating at home and a 92.5 rating on the road and at neutral sites this season. He tossed two interceptions, including a Pick Six, at the Jets on Black Friday, but overcame those mistakes by peppering Tyreek Hill (9 catches, 102 yards, TD) with targets.
Brock Purdy: With the 49ers roster healthier around him, Purdy has resumed his incredible play in Kyle Shanahan’s system, averaging 279.3 passing YPG with a 131.6 rating while committing just one turnover during a three-game win streak. He gets an opportunity to make a statement in his MVP case with the Eagles visiting in Week 13.
C.J. Stroud: Stroud already has Offensive Rookie of the Year locked up and he’s still in the hunt for MVP after posting a fourth straight game with 300-plus passing yards. The No. 2 overall pick is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt with a 109.9 rating in that span.
Josh Allen: The Bills came up just short of a pivotal win at Philadelphia. Allen carried his team with 420 total yards and four touchdowns in the overtime defeat, and is now averaging 307 passing YPG in two starts under new OC Joe Brady.
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence passed for a season-high 364 yards and took zero sacks to pace the Jaguars in a 24-21 win at Houston, putting Jacksonville (-1000) in prime position to win the AFC South.
Christian McCaffrey: In addition to his ridiculous touchdown production, McCaffrey has topped 100 scrimmage yards and caught at least five passes in four straight games for the 49ers.
Tyreek Hill: Hill (+100) and Christian McCaffrey (+100) are down to even odds to win Offensive Player of the Year with FanDuel listing CMC as the current runner-up with +115 odds. Hill is averaging 8.6 receptions for 122 yards per game with six touchdowns over his last seven outings.
Jared Goff: Turnovers have plagued the Lions in a pair of lackluster performances at home against the Bears and Packers. Goff has averaged 284 passing YPG during that span in a close win and a Thanksgiving loss.
How NFL MVP odds are changing
Here is a look at how NFL MVP odds are changing over the course of this year. The NFL MVP openers are from February 13.
| Player | NFL MVP odds (February 13) | NFL MVP odds (August 11) | NFL MVP odds (September 7) | NFL MVP odds (October 23) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +650 | +700 | +700 | +4500 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 | +600 | +600 | +260 |
| Josh Allen | +800 | +700 | +750 | +1000 |
| Justin Herbert | +1000 | +900 | +1100 | +4500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1300 | +1200 | +1100 | +500 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1500 | +1600 | +1800 | +420 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 | Off the board |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1700 | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1700 | +1600 | +1400 | +700 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 | +1600 | +1800 | +4000 |
| Brock Purdy | +2500 | +3000 | +4000 | +900 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2800 | +2500 | +3000 | +20000 |
| Justin Fields | +3000 | +2000 | +2000 | +50000 |
| Geno Smith | +3500 | +3000 | +3000 | +15000 |
| Trey Lance | +3500 | +10000 | +50000 | Off the board |
| Russell Wilson | +3500 | +4000 | +4000 | |
| Kenny Pickett | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 | +50000 |
| Jared Goff | +4500 | +3000 | +3000 | +3300 |
| Kyler Murray | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 | Off the board |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +15000 |
| Derek Carr | +5000 | +3000 | +4000 | +20000 |
| Daniel Jones | +5000 | +7500 | +6600 | +50000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +5000 | +6000 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Mac Jones | +6000 | +6000 | +6600 | +50000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +6000 | +10000 | +10000 | +50000 |
| Sam Howell | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 | +50000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +50000 |
What happened last year?
What was once a great race for NFL MVP became an obvious runaway win for Patrick Mahomes midway through December. The Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts were moving closer and closer to an undefeated season, and Hurts was the likely winner at -150 to win NFL MVP the morning of Dec. 19.
Later that day, however, news broke that Jalen Hurts suffered a shoulder injury, and soon thereafter, Patrick Mahomes took over the top spot on NFL MVP odds boards at -300. Three weeks later, and Mahomes had around -1600 NFL MVP odds at most sportsbooks.
| Player | Opening NFL MVP Odds | NFL MVP Odds July 28 | NFL MVP Odds September 6 | NFL MVP Odds September 20 | NFL MVP Odds September 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +900 | +700 | +650 | +350 | +300 |
| Tom Brady | OTB | +800 | +850 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 | +900 | +900 | +500 | +700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +700 | +1000 | +1000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1500 |
| Joe Burrow | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Russell Wilson | +3000 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 | +4000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 | +1500 | +1600 | +5000 | +2800 |
| Dak Prescott | +2200 | +1600 | +1600 | +8000 | OTB |
| Lamar Jackson | +2200 | +2000 | +2000 | +1200 | +700 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 | +3000 | +4500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +4000 | +2000 | +2000 | +800 | +600 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 | +2800 | +2800 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +8000 | +4000 | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Trey Lance | +6600 | +4000 | +2500 | OTB | OTB |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3000 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +175000 | +5000 | +5000 | +2000 | +1400 |
| Derrick Henry | +1800 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +13000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +8000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +4000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Mac Jones | +10000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2500 | +6000 | +6000 | +6500 | +7000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Justin Fields | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +15000 |
| Jameis Winston | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +9000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | OTB | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Davante Adams | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Austin Ekeler | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Carson Wentz | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 | +13000 |
| Marcus Mariota | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +15000 |
MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures market at the best sports betting sites, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2023.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Fourteen of the last 15 MVPs have been QBs. Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only one to break the grip over that span.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020-21).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.
How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?
Stats also matter in a big way. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers had an incredible 37:4 touchdown to interception ratio last season. Rodgers had +800 odds to win MVP prior to the start of last season.