Patrick Mahomes will be the NFL MVP this season. It’s just a matter of how long you want to tie up a large portion of your bankroll for a small win. Six weeks ago, as the Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts moved closer and closer to an undefeated season, it seemed the writing was on the wall that Hurts was the most likely MVP. Hurts had been around -150 to win the NFL MVP at most sportsbooks on the morning of Dec. 19. Later that day, however, news broke that Hurts suffered a shoulder injury, and in turn, Patrick Mahomes took over the top spot on NFL MVP odds boards at -300. Three weeks later, and Mahomes had around -1600 NFL MVP odds at most sportsbooks.
View live NFL MVP odds for all of the top players in pro football below.
NFL MVP odds
A look at NFL MVP odds for all of the top candidates. Compare Most Valuable Player award prices and click to bet.
NFL MVP favorites
Below are NFL betting futures to win MVP for top candidates.
Patrick Mahomes (): The Chiefs were a fine-tuned machine on offense all season with Mahomes averaging 308.8 passing YPG with a 67% completion rate and a 41:12 TD:INT ratio during a 14-3 season. Beyond the numbers, he made a few plays that truly captured the imagination and demonstrated his incredible ad-lib ability.
Joe Burrow (): Burrow led the Bengals to a 10-1 finish that included a head-to-head win over Mahomes and the Chiefs, his third victory in three matchups with the likely MVP. It will be must-see TV if the Bengals wind up facing the Bills and/or the Chiefs this postseason.
Jalen Hurts (): After missing two games with a shoulder injury, Hurts had a second straight start with zero passing scores and at least one turnover to post a 64.8 passer rating over his final two outings. He was in line to win MVP when the Eagles were 13-1, but the race was too tight for him to survive that finish.
Josh Allen (): The preseason MVP favorite, Allen posted great numbers this year with 4,283 passing yards, 762 rushing yards, and 42 total touchdowns. His ball security was solid aside from a brief lull in the middle of the season, and that basically cost him a shot at the MVP.
Justin Jefferson (): The leading receiver in the NFL this season is likely a lock for Offensive Player of the Year with -800 odds to win the award at DraftKings. Tyreek Hill (+1400) is the second leading candidate for OPOY.
How NFL MVP odds are changing
Here is a look at how NFL MVP odds changed during the offseason and how they are changing during the season.
| Player | Opening NFL MVP Odds | NFL MVP Odds July 28 | NFL MVP Odds September 6 | NFL MVP Odds September 20 | NFL MVP Odds September 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +900 | +700 | +650 | +350 | +300 |
| Tom Brady | OTB | +800 | +850 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 | +900 | +900 | +500 | +700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +700 | +1000 | +1000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1500 |
| Joe Burrow | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Russell Wilson | +3000 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 | +4000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 | +1500 | +1600 | +5000 | +2800 |
| Dak Prescott | +2200 | +1600 | +1600 | +8000 | OTB |
| Lamar Jackson | +2200 | +2000 | +2000 | +1200 | +700 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 | +3000 | +4500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +4000 | +2000 | +2000 | +800 | +600 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 | +2800 | +2800 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +8000 | +4000 | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Trey Lance | +6600 | +4000 | +2500 | OTB | OTB |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3000 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +175000 | +5000 | +5000 | +2000 | +1400 |
| Derrick Henry | +1800 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +13000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +8000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +4000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Mac Jones | +10000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2500 | +6000 | +6000 | +6500 | +7000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Justin Fields | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +15000 |
| Jameis Winston | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +9000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | OTB | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Davante Adams | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Austin Ekeler | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Carson Wentz | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 | +13000 |
| Marcus Mariota | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Player | NFL MVP Odds October 3 | NFL MVP Odds October 11 | NFL MVP Odds October 17 | NFL MVP Odds October 24 | NFL MVP Odds November 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +275 | +200 | +160 | +120 | +300 |
| Lamar Jackson | +500 | +600 | +850 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Jalen Hurts | +500 | +600 | +450 | +450 | +250 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 | +450 | +450 | +400 | +275 |
| Justin Herbert | +1600 | +1400 | +1600 | +2500 | +5000 |
| Joe Burrow | +2000 | +3000 | +3000 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Kyler Murray | +3000 | +4000 | +7000 | +8000 | +20000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +3500 | +3500 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +3500 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +3500 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +3500 | +5000 | +6500 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Tom Brady | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Derek Carr | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +15000 |
| Russell Wilson | +6000 | +7500 | +7500 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +7000 | +5000 | +3500 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Geno Smith | +8000 | +6000 | +6000 | +4000 | +2000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 | +15000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +10000 | +13000 | +13000 | +15000 | +25000 |
| Derrick Henry | +13000 | +13000 | +13000 | +13000 | +15000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Jared Goff | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +15000 | +15000 | +8000 | +15000 | +8000 |
| Player | NFL MVP Odds November 14 | NFL MVP Odds November 21 | NFL MVP Odds November 28 | NFL MVP Odds December 5 | NFL MVP Odds December 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +150 | -150 | -160 | +125 | +200 |
| Jalen Hurts | +400 | +550 | +350 | +175 | -175 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +400 | +500 | +500 | +1200 | +2000 |
| Josh Allen | +600 | +700 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1400 | +3000 | +6000 | +15000 | OTB |
| Joe Burrow | +2500 | +1800 | +1400 | +600 | +750 |
| Kirk Cousins | +3000 | +6000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Geno Smith | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 | +5000 | +8000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Tom Brady | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 | OTB |
| Justin Herbert | +10000 | +10000 | +13000 | OTB | OTB |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | OTB | OTB |
| Saquon Barkley | +15000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Justin Jefferson | +15000 | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Derrick Henry | +15000 | +15000 | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Micah Parsons | +15000 | +20000 | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Daniel Jones | +15000 | +25000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Dak Prescott | +20000 | +20000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +20000 | +30000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Player | NFL MVP Odds December 19 | NFL MVP Odds December 26 |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | -350 | -500 |
| Josh Allen | +500 | +800 |
| Joe Burrow | +550 | +700 |
| Jalen Hurts | +650 | +1000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +10000 | +13000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +10000 | +40000 |
| Justin Herbert | +13000 | +15000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +20000 | +40000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +20000 | +25000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +25000 | OTB |
MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2022.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Fourteen of the last 15 MVPs have been QBs. Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only one to break the grip over that span.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020-21).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.
How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?
Stats also matter in a big way. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers had an incredible 37:4 touchdown to interception ratio last season. Rodgers had +800 odds to win MVP prior to the start of last season.