NFL MVP Odds 2019

We’re nearing the end of the 2019-20 NFL season and one player is pulling away in the race for league MVP.

Here at TheLines, we’re breaking down the current landscape with regards to the NFL futures market to help you find the best value for your NFL MVP bets.

In this betting guide, we will compare the current odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook and provide weekly updates on the odds based play player performance. These odds will continue to shift throughout the regular season, so keep an eye on any key changes due to injuries or other news. And get ready to “buy low” if a potential MVP candidate sees improved odds due to a rough spell.

NFL MVP odds 2020

 

Week 17 NFL MVP Odds Report

The Favorite

Lamar Jackson (-10000): Lamar Jackson separated from Russell Wilson over the past few weeks and is now miles ahead of the competition at -10000 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is hardly surprising since he leads the NFL with 36 TD passes while also setting a new single-season rushing record for a quarterback.

The Longshots

Russell Wilson (+2000): Wilson is way behind Jackson and seems to be falling further behind because the Seahawks are going with more of a ground-and-pound approach on offense as their season winds down.

Patrick Mahomes (+5000): It’s going to be hard for Mahomes to get the nod for a second-straight MVP since he’s missed the better part of three games this season. However, don’t sleep on the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Deshaun Watson (+10000): Watson’s odds dropped from +2500 to +10000 on DraftKings Sportsbook despite leading his team to a key win in Tennessee and then against the Bucs. His numbers and the performance of his team just pale in comparison to Jackson and the Ravens.

Michael Thomas (+10000): It’s interesting to note that the top non-QB on the Player Futures list is a wideout. Thomas kept the Saints afloat while Drew Brees (thumb) was on the shelf and is dominating now that Brees is back under center.

MVP futures betting

NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2019.

All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Eleven of the last 13 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took both monumental, career seasons to do it.

Then, of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2014).

How to bet NFL MVP futures

Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.

Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.

Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.

Where can you bet on MVP futures?

NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab.  Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.

As alluded to earlier, futures wagers are often listed at “plus-money”. All NFL 2019 MVP player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

Take the example of the preseason pacesetter at both FD and DK sportsbooks — Chiefs quarterback and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. The third-year star’s odds opened at +600 at FD and +500 on DK. Those who accurately predict Mahomes to repeat as MVP champ this season will win $600 for every $100 they bet on FD and $500 for every $100 they wager on him at DK at current prices.

How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?

The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.

Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2018 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Mahomes.

How far would the Colts have gotten with Jacoby Brissett instead of Andrew Luck under center? The Saints without Drew Brees? Or, perhaps the most obvious example – the world champion Patriots without Brady?

However, raw numbers are usually the tie-breaker. In Mahomes’ case, his 5,369 total yards and 52 total touchdowns rightfully held tremendous sway with the voters. And, combined with Mahomes’ unquestioned value to his team, it was enough to carry him to the award. In comparison, runner-up Brees, pivotal as he undeniably was to his own team’s fortunes, threw for 1,105 fewer yards and 11 fewer touchdowns than Mahomes.

Curiously, both players finished up their seasons in the same way – with losses in their respective conference championships.