For the third straight week, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the 2020 NFL MVP award at US sportsbooks. Mahomes is -400 at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson next up at +650. Wilson, who had been the favorite for the majority of the first half of the season, is now fading down the stretch as we look at NFL MVP odds.
Fellow QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are all still in the mix but would need a monster month of December to catch Mahomes. The list is almost always dominated by QBs as the last non-QB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012 when he ran for over 2,000 yards.
In this NFL MVP odds guide, we will compare the current NFL MVP odds at sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM and attempt to predict which player will win the MVP award this season.
NFL MVP odds 2020
2020 NFL MVP odds report
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes: Tyreek Hill and Mahomes put on a show in the first quarter against Tampa’s typically elite defense. When the dust settled, Mahomes had 462 passing yards while leading the Super Bowl favorites to another high profile win. He’s now head and shoulders above the field as the MVP favorite.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is slightly ahead of Mahomes when it comes to TD passes (33) and passer rating (117.6). His supporting cast is not as talented and he’s working with a second-year head coach, so the 36-year-old QB has a strong case to win MVP, especially if the Packers (8-3) run the table and secure the top seed in the NFC.
Russell Wilson: While he’s been efficient, averaging 225 passing YPG over his last three games isn’t enough for Wilson to keep pace with Mahomes. He’s gone from a -130 favorite to a relative longshot with +650 odds in the course of a month.
Longshots
Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger should be asked to throw more at Baltimore on Wednesday with James Conner on the COVID/Reserve list. Postponing that game creates a much more difficult road to 16-0 for Pittsburgh and could earn Ben more votes if he pulls it off.
Derrick Henry: Henry is averaging 4.9 YPC and leads the NFL with 1,257 yards, ahead of Dalvin Cook (1,130) for now. The Titans are surging and Henry is carrying his squad.
Josh Allen: His Bills held on for a 27-17 win over the Chargers despite the fact that Allen threw a costly pick and only completed 18 of 24 passes for 157 yards. The 6-foot-6 signal caller could still turn in some high profile performances with the 49ers, Steelers, Patriots, and Dolphins on tap over the final five weeks.
Deshaun Watson: Over his last two games, Watson is 45-for-63 (71.4%) with 662 passing yards and 7 total TDs. The Texans, at 4-7, almost surely aren’t making the playoffs though – which severely hurts Watson’s chances.
Kyler Murray: Murray has just 46 rushing yards over his last two outings and only managed 170 passing yards against a Patriots defense that coughs up the most yards per attempt (8.3) in the NFL.
Tom Brady: After yet another sluggish start, Brady came alive late and trimmed the Chiefs lead to 27-24, but never got another possession as Mahomes closed out a Bucs team that can’t seem to perform under the bright lights.
Dalvin Cook: Cook was surprisingly stonewalled in a juicy matchup against the Panthers and seemed to suffer an ankle injury early in the second half. An incredible two-week stretch doesn’t make an MVP candidate.
Aaron Donald: Donald cemented his status as a big favorite for Defensive Player of the Year with a dominant performance against San Francisco on Sunday.
MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2020.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Eleven of the last 13 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took monumental, career seasons to do it.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2014).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
As alluded to earlier, futures wagers are often listed at “plus-money.” All NFL 2020 MVP player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2019 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Jackson.
How far would the Titans have gotten without Ryan Tannehill? How far would the 49ers have gotten without Jimmy Garoppolo? And how far would the Packers have gotten without Rodgers?
However, stats are usually the tie-breaker. In Jackson’s case, his 4,333 total yards and 43 total touchdowns rightfully held tremendous sway with the voters. And, combined with Jacksons’ unquestioned value to his team, it was enough to carry him to the award.