NFL MVP Odds 2019

Futures, Favorites, And How To Bet

NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2019.

MVP wagers are available at most online sportsbook apps in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Iowa, Indiana, and Nevada. The odds featured in the table below are from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL MVP odds 2019

Game
02/01/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Russell Wilson
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+220
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+230
Patrick Mahomes
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+230
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+220
Deshaun Watson
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+500
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+500
Christian McCaffrey
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+1200
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+1000
Tom Brady
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+1800
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+1500
Aaron Rodgers
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+1800
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+1500
Lamar Jackson
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+2500
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+2400
Jimmy Garoppolo
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+2800
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+2600
Carson Wentz
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+2800
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+2600
Matthew Stafford
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+4000
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+4300
Dalvin Cook
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+4000
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+4300
Dak Prescott
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+6000
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+6000
Kirk Cousins
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+7000
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+6000
Baker Mayfield
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+7000
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+7500
Khalil Mack
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+7500
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+6000
Alvin Kamara
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+8000
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+7500

 

All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Eleven of the last 13 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took both monumental, career seasons to do it.

Then, of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2014).

How to bet NFL MVP futures

Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.

Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.

Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.

Where can you bet on MVP futures?

draftkings nfl mvp

NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab.  Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.

As alluded to earlier, futures wagers are often listed at “plus-money”. All NFL 2019 MVP player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

Take the example of the current pacesetter at both FD and DK’s sportsbooks — Chiefs quarterback and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. The third-year star’s odds sit at +600 at FD and +500 on DK. Those who accurately predict Mahomes to repeat as MVP champ this season will win $600 for every $100 they bet on FD and $500 for every $100 they wager on him at DK at current prices.

How is the NFL MVP award typically decided? 

The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.

Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2018 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Mahomes.

How far would the Colts have gotten with Jacoby Brissett instead of Andrew Luck under center? The Saints without Drew Brees? Or, perhaps the most obvious example – the world champion Patriots without Brady?

However, raw numbers are usually the tie-breaker. In Mahomes’ case, his 5,369 total yards and 52 total touchdowns rightfully held tremendous sway with the voters. And, combined with Mahomes’ unquestioned value to his team, it was enough to carry him to the award. In comparison, runner-up Brees, pivotal as he undeniably was to his own team’s fortunes, threw for 1,105 fewer yards and 11 fewer touchdowns than Mahomes.

Curiously, both players finished up their seasons in the same way – with losses in their respective conference championships.