Patrick Mahomes already has two NFL MVP awards in his trophy case. The Chiefs QB will surely be shooting for his third in the 2023 – 2024 NFL season and he is the favorite at sportsbooks along with Bengals QB Joe Burrow. Mahomes and Burrow both opened with +650 NFL MVP odds for the 2023 season. View Most Valuable Player odds for all of the top NFL players below.
NFL MVP odds
Here are NFL MVP odds for next season. Sportsbooks have already posted futures prices for this coveted individual award. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to score his second straight MVP.
Next season NFL MVP odds
Patrick Mahomes (+650): After averaging 308.8 passing YPG with a 67% completion rate and a 41:12 TD:INT ratio during a 14-3 season. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their second Super Bowl title in four years despite dealing with a badly sprained ankle. With Tyreek Hill gone, the Chiefs have spread the ball around even more and everything goes through Mahomes.
Joe Burrow (+650): A giant killer with a 3-1 record in games against the Chiefs, Burrow opens the offseason as the co-favorite with Mahomes at DraftKings. The Bengals just need to shore up their offensive line to give him better protection, and the former Heisman winner will continue to pick defenses apart.
Josh Allen (+800): Last season, Allen opened as the MVP favorite and the Bills were Super Bowl favorites until about the midpoint of the season. Then his squad eventually flamed out in the playoffs. Allen is an elite dual-threat who produced 42 total touchdowns last year and he’s improved incrementally in each of his NFL seasons.
Justin Herbert (+1000): The Chargers bring in yet another OC in Kellen Moore, who will try to get the right plays in to capitalize on Herbert’s incredible skill set. The Chargers skill players have a history of getting injured at the wrong time, which may also play a factor in their ability to compete in the loaded AFC.
Jalen Hurts (+1300): It seems Hurts is getting disrespected in the preseason lines after losing out to Mahomes on MVP honors last season. The Eagles went 14-1 in his regular season outings and he produced 13 rushing TDs to go along with 22 passing scores and 3,701 yards through the air.
Tua Tagovailoa (+1500): There is speculation that the Dolphins could move Tua to the Ravens for Lamar Jackson, but would Baltimore be interested in a QB that suffered three concussions last year? Mike McDaniel seemed to get the most out of Tua’s talent and Miami is likely the best spot for him going forward.
Aaron Rodgers (+1600): While we don’t know where he’ll suit up next year, it appears Rodgers is set on moving on from the Packers and they’re happy to part ways with their longtime QB. The Jets and 49ers are the leading candidates to make a deal for the future Hall of Famer.
Trevor Lawrence (+1700): Doug Pederson helped unlock Lawrence’s potential in their first year together, as the Jaguars finished 6-1 with the former No. 1 overall pick leading a couple of exciting comeback wins in the regular season and playoffs.
Lamar Jackson (+1700): Jackson’s season was mired by failed contract negotiations and he wound up sitting out the Ravens loss in the Wild Card round, which could mark the end to their marriage. His dual-threat skill set should translate to any offense if Baltimore moves him.
Dak Prescott (+1800): While he tossed a league-high 13 interceptions after returning from his thumb injury midway through last season, Prescott still played very well and some of those turnovers weren’t necessarily his fault. The Cowboys have a ton of talent around him and new OC Brian Schottenheimer could shake up their offensive approach.
Brock Purdy (+2500): The 49ers could stick with Purdy as their next QB and work Trey Lance (ankle) back into the flow of things slowly. Purdy was great as a rookie, but he’s going to undergo Tommy John surgery this offseason. Lance (+3500) and Jimmy Garoppolo (+6500) are both on MVP odds boards as potential starters for one of the top teams in the NFC.
Deshaun Watson (+2800): Watson looked extremely rusty when he debuted in Week 13 and he never seemed to get on track at the helm of a run-heavy Browns offense. The talented QB should look much better after getting in a full training camp.
Justin Fields (+3000): The Bears unleashed Fields as a runner last year with amazing results. Without his running ability, Chicago might have the worst offense in the NFL going forward, so it will be interesting to see how he handles all that responsibility.
Russell Wilson (+3500): Sean Payton replaces Nathaniel Hackett in a marked upgrade for the Broncos QB and offense in general. Wilson played very poorly last year, but could hit his stride under a new staff.
Geno Smith (+3500): The Seahawks seem likely to franchise tag Geno Smith after his excellent season brought them to the playoffs. With Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Kenneth Walker on his side of the ball, Smith has plenty of weapons.
Kenny Pickett (+4000): The Steelers won all six of Pickett’s final games last season that he started and finished, although the rookie hardly put up eye-popping numbers in those contests.
Jared Goff (+4500): The Lions started 1-6 but finished strong and nearly made the playoffs. There is a ton of talent around Goff on offense and a subpar defense helps ensure passing volume for the Lions QB.
Matthew Stafford (+5000): Sean McVay brings in Mike LaFleur as his new OC and the Rams will look to shore up a leaky offensive line to protect Stafford after he got banged up and eventually knocked out of the active lineup last season.
Kyler Murray (+5000): The Cardinals will bring in a new head coach to replace Kliff Kingsbury and the pressure will be on Murray to prove that Kingsbury was more of an issue than the swirling questions about his work ethic as a quarterback.
Kirk Cousins (+5000): The Vikings won 11 one-score games last season and Cousins played a major role in those clutch victories. He had some poor showings in prime time games, though, which has been a smudge on his resume for years.
Derek Carr (+5000): Another QB set to switch teams this offseason, Carr might be the new QB for the Saints next year. That offense needs a spark after dealing with key injuries last season.
Daniel Jones (+5000): Brian Daboll deservedly won Coach of the Year after leading a mediocre Giants roster to the playoffs and steering Jones to a career year with 22 total TDs and nearly 4,000 combined passing and rushing yards.
Mac Jones (+6000): The Patriots are bringing back Bill O’Brien as OC after a disastrous experiment using Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as co-offensive coordinators last season. Jones has nowhere to go but up after a rough sophomore season.
Sam Howell (+8000): Washington might move to their fifth-round QB as the starter next season after Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz both struggled to maintain consistency.
Tyreek Hill (+10000): The dynamic WR is among the first non-quarterbacks listed on MVP odds boards. Hill posted big numbers with three different QBs last season and made a massive difference in Miami’s ascendancy on offense.
Justin Jefferson (+10000): Jefferson was arguably more vital towards the Vikings success in close games than any player, including his own QB, leading to Offensive Player of the Year honors for the LSU product.
Cooper Kupp (+10000): The Rams will bring back several key players from season-ending injuries last year, including Kupp, who was on pace to surpass some of the gaudy numbers he put up during a Triple Crown season in 2021-22.
Ja’Marr Chase (+10000): Joe Burrow’s main target will be primed for a big year if the Bengals can add talent on the offensive line to give his QB more time.
Jonathan Taylor (+10000): The Colts bring in former Eagles OC Shane Steichen as head coach in the hopes that he can develop a consistent rushing attack with Taylor at the forefront.
Ryan Tannehill (+10000): The Titans offense fell apart down the stretch while Tannehill dealt with an ankle injury. Passing game coordinator Tim Kelly will replace Todd Downing as Tennessee’s OC this season.
Bryce Young (+10000): The potential No. 1 overall pick might fall to the second spot if the Bears opt to stick with Justin Fields. Young could start immediately for a Texans team that clearly isn’t enamored with Davis Mills.
CJ Stroud (+10000): The Colts could trade up to one of the top spots in the draft to target Young, or stand pat at their draft position and look at Stroud or Kentucky product Will Levis as potential QBs of the future.
Christian McCaffrey (+15000): The 49ers went undefeated after integrating McCaffrey into their system and he should remain the focal point of their offense regardless of who starts under center.
Derrick Henry (+15000): Still only 29 years old, Henry is capable of carrying the Titans offense in another season and posting some of the best rushing numbers in the league.
Davante Adams (+15000): The Raiders will likely bring in a new QB to work with Adams, but we saw what he could do with a new passer in Jarrett Stidham’s first start against the 49ers in Week 17. Saquon Barkley: The Giants ran everything through Barkley last year and he routinely manufactured yards that weren’t blocked.
How NFL MVP odds are changing
Here is a look at how NFL MVP odds are changing during the off-season. The NFL MVP openers are from February 13, ahead of free agency and the Draft.
| Player | NFL MVP odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +650 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 |
| Josh Allen | +800 |
| Justin Herbert | +1000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1300 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1700 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1700 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 |
| Brock Purdy | +2500 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2800 |
| Justin Fields | +3000 |
| Geno Smith | +3500 |
| Trey Lance | +3500 |
| Russell Wilson | +3500 |
| Kenny Pickett | +4000 |
| Jared Goff | +4500 |
| Kyler Murray | +5000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 |
| Derek Carr | +5000 |
| Daniel Jones | +5000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +5000 |
| Mac Jones | +6000 |
| Matt Ryan | +6500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +6000 |
| Sam Howell | +8000 |
| Sam Darnold | +8000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +10000 |
What happened last year?
What was once a great race for NFL MVP became an obvious runaway win for Patrick Mahomes midway through December. The Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts were moving closer and closer to an undefeated season, and Hurts was the likely winner at -150 to win NFL MVP the morning of Dec. 19. Later that day, however, news broke that Jalen Hurts suffered a shoulder injury, and soon thereafter, Patrick Mahomes took over the top spot on NFL MVP odds boards at -300. Three weeks later, and Mahomes had around -1600 NFL MVP odds at most sportsbooks.
| Player | Opening NFL MVP Odds | NFL MVP Odds July 28 | NFL MVP Odds September 6 | NFL MVP Odds September 20 | NFL MVP Odds September 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +900 | +700 | +650 | +350 | +300 |
| Tom Brady | OTB | +800 | +850 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 | +900 | +900 | +500 | +700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +700 | +1000 | +1000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1500 |
| Joe Burrow | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Russell Wilson | +3000 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 | +4000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 | +1500 | +1600 | +5000 | +2800 |
| Dak Prescott | +2200 | +1600 | +1600 | +8000 | OTB |
| Lamar Jackson | +2200 | +2000 | +2000 | +1200 | +700 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 | +3000 | +4500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +4000 | +2000 | +2000 | +800 | +600 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 | +2800 | +2800 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +8000 | +4000 | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Trey Lance | +6600 | +4000 | +2500 | OTB | OTB |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3000 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +175000 | +5000 | +5000 | +2000 | +1400 |
| Derrick Henry | +1800 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +13000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +8000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +4000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Mac Jones | +10000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2500 | +6000 | +6000 | +6500 | +7000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Justin Fields | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +15000 |
| Jameis Winston | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +9000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | OTB | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +5000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Davante Adams | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Austin Ekeler | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Carson Wentz | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 | +13000 |
| Marcus Mariota | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +25000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Player | NFL MVP Odds October 3 | NFL MVP Odds October 11 | NFL MVP Odds October 17 | NFL MVP Odds October 24 | NFL MVP Odds November 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +275 | +200 | +160 | +120 | +300 |
| Lamar Jackson | +500 | +600 | +850 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Jalen Hurts | +500 | +600 | +450 | +450 | +250 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 | +450 | +450 | +400 | +275 |
| Justin Herbert | +1600 | +1400 | +1600 | +2500 | +5000 |
| Joe Burrow | +2000 | +3000 | +3000 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Kyler Murray | +3000 | +4000 | +7000 | +8000 | +20000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +3500 | +3500 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +3500 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +3500 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +3500 | +5000 | +6500 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Tom Brady | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Derek Carr | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +15000 |
| Russell Wilson | +6000 | +7500 | +7500 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +7000 | +5000 | +3500 | +10000 | +20000 |
| Geno Smith | +8000 | +6000 | +6000 | +4000 | +2000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 | +15000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +10000 | +13000 | +13000 | +15000 | +25000 |
| Derrick Henry | +13000 | +13000 | +13000 | +13000 | +15000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Jared Goff | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +15000 | +15000 | +8000 | +15000 | +8000 |
| Player | NFL MVP Odds November 14 | NFL MVP Odds November 21 | NFL MVP Odds November 28 | NFL MVP Odds December 5 | NFL MVP Odds December 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +150 | -150 | -160 | +125 | +200 |
| Jalen Hurts | +400 | +550 | +350 | +175 | -175 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +400 | +500 | +500 | +1200 | +2000 |
| Josh Allen | +600 | +700 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1400 | +3000 | +6000 | +15000 | OTB |
| Joe Burrow | +2500 | +1800 | +1400 | +600 | +750 |
| Kirk Cousins | +3000 | +6000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Geno Smith | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 | +5000 | +8000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Tom Brady | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 | OTB |
| Justin Herbert | +10000 | +10000 | +13000 | OTB | OTB |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | OTB | OTB |
| Saquon Barkley | +15000 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Justin Jefferson | +15000 | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Derrick Henry | +15000 | +15000 | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Micah Parsons | +15000 | +20000 | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Daniel Jones | +15000 | +25000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Dak Prescott | +20000 | +20000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +20000 | +30000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Player | NFL MVP Odds December 19 | NFL MVP Odds December 26 |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | -350 | -500 |
| Josh Allen | +500 | +800 |
| Joe Burrow | +550 | +700 |
| Jalen Hurts | +650 | +1000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +10000 | +13000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +10000 | +40000 |
| Justin Herbert | +13000 | +15000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +20000 | +40000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +20000 | +25000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +25000 | OTB |
MVP futures betting
NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures betting market every year, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2022.
All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.
One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Fourteen of the last 15 MVPs have been QBs. Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only one to break the grip over that span.
Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020-21).
How to bet NFL MVP futures
Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.
Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.
Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.
Where can you bet on MVP futures?
NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab. Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.
How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?
The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.
Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.
How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?
Stats also matter in a big way. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers had an incredible 37:4 touchdown to interception ratio last season. Rodgers had +800 odds to win MVP prior to the start of last season.