NFL MVP Odds 2026: Josh Allen Favored to Win Most Valuable Player Award
NFL MVP odds are futures bets on who will win the Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award after the regular season. Quarterbacks dominate this market, and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen enters Week 2 as the betting favorite at +350 at BetMGM.
Josh Allen sits atop the NFL MVP odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, but Lamar Jackson (+600), Caleb Williams (+750), Joe Burrow (+1000), Patrick Mahomes (+1400), and Trevor Lawrence (+1400) aren't far behind as the league kicks off the second week of NFL action.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
If you're looking for a non-quarterback, keep scrolling because the 2026 NFL MVP odds market is packed with quarterbacks. BetMGM lists QBs in each of the first 17 spots before running back Jahmyr Gibbs joins the board at +6600.
Allen has the shortest current NFL MVP odds, and that isn't much of a surprise. Seeing the defending MVP, Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford, sitting at +2000 is what really stands out here.
| Player | NFL MVP Odds (via BetMGM) |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen, Bills | +350 |
| Lamar Jackson, Ravens | +600 |
| Caleb Williams, Bears | +750 |
| Joe Burrow, Bengals | +1000 |
| Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs | +1400 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars | +1400 |
| Brock Purdy, 49ers | +1500 |
| Matthew Stafford, Lions | +2000 |
| Dak Prescott, Cowboys | +2200 |
| Drake Maye, Patriots | +2200 |
| Justin Herbert, Chargers | +2200 |
*Odds as of Sept. 18, 2026.
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The top of the 2026 NFL MVP odds are filled with quarterbacks who already have a strong case.
Allen and Jackson have won MVPs before. Williams and Burrow are still chasing their first, while Maye came within five voting points of winning last season. That's a much tighter group than Allen's favorite status might suggest.
Josh Allen, +350
Allen doesn't have to lead the league in passing anymore. He won MVP in 2024, then finished third in 2025 after throwing for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding another 14 rushing scores.
Those rushing touchdowns are a big reason he's still sitting on top of the odds to win the NFL MVP award. Buffalo doesn't need Allen to throw for 4,500 yards for him to build an MVP case.
A strong Bills record paired with another 35-plus total-touchdown season puts him right back in the conversation.
Lamar Jackson, +600
Health is the biggest reason Jackson isn't sitting at the top of the board. He already has two MVP trophies, but 2025 didn't go the way Baltimore hoped.
He played 13 games, throwing for 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions as Baltimore went 6-7 in his starts. The price is tempting because we've already seen his ceiling. The question isn't talent.
It's whether Baltimore and Jackson stay healthy enough to get there again.
Caleb Williams, +750
Williams feels like the quarterback everyone will wish they had backed if Chicago takes another step forward after a dominant win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 1.
His 2025 season already showed his ceiling: 3,942 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. His 58.1% completion rate leaves plenty of room to improve. That's actually part of the appeal.
If the Bears win the NFC North again and Williams pushes his completion rate into the mid-60s, his MVP profile gets much cleaner.
Joe Burrow, +1000
Burrow's price immediately catches your eye. He played only eight games last season, yet still threw 17 touchdown passes while leading Cincinnati to a 5-3 record in his starts.
Injuries are the obvious concern at +900. They're also why the number is longer than Allen's. Burrow has never received a first-place MVP vote, but a healthy season on a winning Bengals team could change that fast.
NFL MVP Sleeper Picks
Every MVP race seems to produce one quarterback nobody is talking about in August. That's where the longer NFL MVP betting odds start getting interesting.
When making NFL MVP predictions, the goal isn't just to find a long shot. It's about discovering someone who has a realistic path to double-digit wins and big numbers. NFL division odds can help identify those opportunities.
Trevor Lawrence, +1400
Lawrence doesn't really belong in the sleeper category anymore. He already showed last season that he can put together an MVP-caliber year.
He threw for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns while helping Jacksonville win 13 games and the AFC South in 2025. He even finished fifth in MVP voting. Getting +2500 on someone who already produced an MVP-caliber team record is more interesting than the number first appears.
Brock Purdy, +1500
Purdy was limited to nine games last season but went 7-2 as a starter, completing 69.4% of his passes with 20 touchdowns. San Francisco also added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to a receiving group that already knows Kyle Shanahan's system.
There's enough here for a rebound. The 49ers just need Purdy healthy for 17 games.
Justin Herbert, +2200
Herbert is the quarterback we keep coming back to. The raw numbers were solid at 3,727 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, but they weren't quite enough to put him in the middle of the NFL MVP betting conversation.
Mike McDaniel taking over the offense changes the conversation. Herbert has never lacked talent. Better efficiency in the red zone could make a huge difference.
We've already seen Herbert put up big numbers. The missing piece has been turning those drives into more touchdowns. If McDaniel helps turn more of those possessions into touchdowns, +2200 could look much shorter by October.
Drake Maye, +2200
Five points. That's all that separated Maye from Stafford in last year's MVP voting. Maye threw for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions while leading the NFL with a 113.5 passer rating and 72% completion rate.
That's why +1100 feels longer than it probably should. It's rare to get that price on someone who nearly won MVP the year before.
Jared Goff, +4000
Goff quietly finished second in the NFL with 4,564 passing yards last season while throwing 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The problem is that he's competing against quarterbacks who add rushing value. At +4000, though, that drawback is priced in. Detroit's offense gives him a believable path to the type of 40-touchdown season that forces voters to pay attention.
NFL MVP Prediction
Allen deserves to be the favorite. If we're making NFL MVP picks, though, Burrow offers more value at the current number. He still threw 17 touchdowns in only eight games last year, and Cincinnati went 5-3 when he started.
If Burrow finally gets a healthy 17-game season and the Bengals return to double-digit wins, +900 offers more room than Allen at +350.
Best Bet to Win NFL MVP: Joe Burrow, +1000
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NFL MVP Winners History
Here's the trend that matters most before looking at the NFL MVP betting odds. Quarterbacks have won the last 13 MVP awards.
Adrian Peterson in 2012 remains the last non-QB winner — a major warning before using NFL MVP betting odds to chase a running back or receiver at a huge price. Matthew Stafford became the latest winner in 2025 after throwing for an NFL-high 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns.
| Season | NFL MVP Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford |
| 2024 | Josh Allen |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2017 | Tom Brady |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan |
| 2015 | Cam Newton |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2010 | Tom Brady |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning |
| 2007 | Tom Brady |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning |
| 2003 | Peyton Manning and Steve McNair |
| 2002 | Rich Gannon |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk |
How to Bet on NFL MVP Odds in 2026
NFL MVP betting works like other futures markets. Pick a player, enter your wager amount, and the bet stays open until the MVP award is decided after the regular season.
The votes themselves are submitted before the playoffs, so a great postseason won't rescue a weak regular-season MVP case.
Compare Prices Before Betting
This is probably the easiest edge you'll find in NFL MVP betting. Futures prices can vary more than most people expect from one sportsbook to another.
A player at +900 instead of +800 returns an extra $100 in profit on a winning $100 wager. Check several sportsbooks rather than taking the first number you see.
Our NFL betting odds page is the best place to start.
Think About Team Wins
Big passing numbers help. Winning helps even more. That's why it's worth comparing MVP prices with Super Bowl odds before betting.
Every AP MVP has played for a team with a winning record, and recent winners have usually played for top playoff contenders.
Don't Chase Only the Longest Number
Everybody likes the idea of cashing a +10000 ticket. The harder question is whether that player actually has a realistic path to winning MVP.
Quarterbacks have taken every MVP since 2013. A long-shot QB on a potential division winner usually makes more sense than a star receiver facing decades of voting history.
How to Read Odds to Win NFL MVP
American odds to win the NFL MVP look confusing if you haven't used them before, but they're actually pretty simple once you understand how payouts work.
Allen at +350 would return $350 in profit on a $100 wager, for a total payout of $450.
A longer shot, such as Goff at +4000, would return $4,000 in profit on a $100 bet, for a total of $4,100. The bigger payout comes with a much lower implied chance of winning.
That's why price matters so much with futures. Liking a player isn't enough. The number still needs to make sense.
Where to Bet on MVP Odds
You'll find MVP futures at just about every legal online sportsbook once the market opens. Comparing prices across NFL betting sites can make a bigger difference than most bettors realize.
Availability can vary by state, so check the market inside your sportsbook before placing a wager.
Start by comparing odds at the best NFL betting apps. New and existing bettors can also compare available NFL betting promos before signing up.
Keep in mind that regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP odds are completely separate markets.
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