NFL MVP Odds

NFL MVP odds
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The new NFL season is still months away but select pro football betting markets are already open. NFL MVP odds are already available to bet on with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+650) as the favorite. Bills QB Josh Allen and Bengals QB Joe Burrow are also atop Most Valuable Player odds boards. Christian McCaffrey (+10000) has the shortest odds for a non-QB.

View live MVP odds for all of the top NFL players below.

NFL MVP odds

Here are live NFL MVP odds for next season. Patrick Mahomes (+650) is the current betting favorite.

Here are the current NFL MVP odds betting favorites.

Patrick Mahomes (+650)

With two regular season MVP awards to his name, Mahomes is an early favorite to contend for a third. The Chiefs defense is elite and their receiving corps is still a work in progress, with Travis Kelce entering his age 34 season and Mahomes likely to take on a heavy load. 

Josh Allen (+800)

Once Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s OC, Allen cut down on his turnovers and led the Bills on a remarkable turnaround to win the AFC East. Allen leads the NFL in total touchdowns over the past three seasons. 

Joe Burrow (+1000)

A calf injury limited Burrow early in the season before a wrist injury knocked him out of action in Week 11. He remains one of the top quarterbacks in the game with elite receivers at his disposal. 

Lamar Jackson (+1100)

The defending MVP will enter his second season in Todd Monken’s system, which helped Jackson rush for 821 yards and five touchdowns on top of his efficient passing numbers. 

C.J. Stroud (+1100)

The sky’s the limit for the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Tank Dell and the Texans receivers should be healthy to start next season. 

Justin Herbert (+1300)

Herbert and the Chargers enter a new phase with Jim Harbaugh coaching and Greg Roman taking over as offensive coordinator. 

Jordan Love (+1400)

After posting some of the best advanced metrics in football during the second half of the season, Love posted a 108.6 passer rating in his first two postseason starts. 

Brock Purdy (+1600)

At the helm of a prolific 49ers offense, Purdy seemed to be on an MVP trajectory before he tossed four picks in a loss to Jackson and the Ravens in Week 16. 

Dak Prescott (+1600)

Prescott averaged 287.9 passing YPG with a 26:4 TD:INT ratio over his last 10 regular season starts with CeeDee Lamb accounting for a huge portion of that production. 

Jalen Hurts (+1600)

His 28 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons lead all players, and Hurts has also averaged 236.2 passing yards with 45 touchdowns through the air in that span. 

Tua Tagovailoa (+2000)

The Dolphins started on an historic pace last season and Tyreek Hill is capable of setting another historic pace this year. 

Matthew Stafford (+2000)

Stafford and the Rams bounced back from a down year with huge offensive output down the stretch and he enters this season with two top receivers at his disposal. 

Aaron Rodgers (+2500)

After his Jets debut ended abruptly, Rodgers has vowed to return at full strength this season in an effort to lead the struggling franchise back to the playoffs.

How NFL MVP odds are changing

Here is a look at how NFL MVP odds are changing over the course of this year. The NFL MVP openers are from February 12.

PlayerNFL MVP odds
Patrick Mahomes+650
Josh Allen +800
Joe Burrow +1000
CJ Stroud+1100
Lamar Jackson+1200
Justin Herbert+1300
Jordan Love+1400
Dak Prescott+1600
Jalen Hurts+1600
Brock Purdy+1600
Matthew Stafford+2000
Tua Tagovailoa+2500
Aaron Rodgers+2500
Trevor Lawrence+2500
Anthony Richardson+3000
Kirk Cousins+4000
Jared Goff+5000
Justin Fields+5000
Kyler Murray+5000
Baker Mayfield+6000
Deshaun Watson+7500
Bryce Young+10000
Will Levis+10000
Christian McCaffrey+10000

What happened last year?

Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen began last season as the betting favorites to win NFL MVP with odds ranging from +600 to +800. Burrow quickly became a longshot as the Bengals struggled out of the gate and he eventually was removed from NFL MVP odds boards in November after a wrist injury ended his season.

Allen and Mahomes were anywhere from +1000 to +2000 late in the season due to their respective teams’ regular season struggles. Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy were the favorites down the stretch of the season as Jackson had +450 odds to win NFL MVP on December 18 and Purdy was minus-money with a -200. That all changed on Christmas night as Jackson severely outperformed Purdy in a head-to-head matchup. Jackson, the eventual winner, began the season with +1700 odds to win NFL MVP.

MVP futures betting

NFL MVP bets are among the most popular in the futures market at the best sports betting sites, and now it’s becoming easier than ever to plunk some money down on your best bet to win the award in 2023.

All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Fourteen of the last 15 MVPs have been QBs. Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only one to break the grip over that span.

Of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020-21).

How to bet NFL MVP futures

Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.

Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.

Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.

Where can you bet on MVP futures?

NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab.  Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.

How is the NFL MVP award typically decided?

The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.

Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2020 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Rodgers.

How far would the Buccaneers have gotten without Tom Brady? How far would the Bills have gotten without Josh Allen?

Stats also matter in a big way. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers had an incredible 37:4 touchdown to interception ratio last season. Rodgers had +800 odds to win MVP prior to the start of last season.