NFL MVP Odds 2019

Futures, Favorites, And How To Bet

‘Tis the season for smoldering heat, splashy beach days, and plunking some cash down on the fast-approaching NFL season.

Sure, the first regular-season kickoff isn’t until Thursday, Sept. 5. But NFL futures wagers are as in season as watermelons and sunblock these days. And 2019 MVP bets are one of the most popular.

NFL MVP futures wagers are available at most online sportsbook apps in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Nevada. The odds featured in the table below are from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetStars, all of which currently operate in New Jersey. FanDuel also has a legal online sportsbook in Pennsylvania.

NFL MVP odds 2019

Game
02/01/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Patrick Mahomes
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+400
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+500
Tomy Brady
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+700
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+900
Carson Wentz
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+1000
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+1100
Drew Brees
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+1400
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+1300
Aaron Rodgers
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+1400
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+900
Philip Rivers
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+2400
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+2500
Russell Wilson
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+2400
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+2500
Lamar Jackson
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+2500
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+2500
Baker Mayfield
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+2500
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+1700
Deshaun Watson
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+2500
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+2500
Matt Ryan
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+3300
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+3000
Ben Roethlisberger
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+3300
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+3000
Saquon Barkley
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+3300
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+3000
Jared Goff
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+3300
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+3000
Dak Prescott
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+3300
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+5000
Jimmy Garoppolo
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+4000
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+4000
Cam Newton
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+4000
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+4000
Kirk Cousins
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+5000
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+4000
Christian McCaffrey
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+5000
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+3000
Ezekiel Elliott
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+5000
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+4000
Alvin Kamara
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+6000
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+5000
Todd Gurley
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+6600
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+6000

 

All player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

One trend will be very apparent as we delve into this year’s top candidates: it’s highly probable the MVP award ultimately goes to a quarterback. Eleven of the last 13 MVPs have been QBs. Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only ones to break the grip over that span. It took both monumental, career seasons to do it.

Then, of active signal-callers, there have been only two repeat winners during that span – Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2014).

How to bet NFL MVP futures

Maximizing a wager on any future outcome pertaining to a sporting event — or in the case of the NFL MVP award winner, an end-of-season occurrence – is heavily predicated on timing. By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like NFL MVP, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week.

Any multi-week injury to the player naturally will cause odds to get much longer. Any serious MVP candidate essentially must play as close to 16 games as possible in order to accrue the kind of numbers necessary to have a realistic chance at the award. A player that begins the season considerably underperforming or goes into an in-season, multi-game funk will also see their odds drop.

Naturally, a reverse effect is seen if a player begins to significantly outperform preseason expectations. Another factor that can particularly shoot quarterbacks up the ladder is when a supporting offensive cast turns out to be even better than expected. Such a development often helps the candidate’s own numbers to an appreciable degree.

Where can you bet on MVP futures?

draftkings nfl mvp

NFL MVP futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. NFL MVP futures are located behind the NFL tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Typically, NFL MVP futures may often be found behind a “Player Futures” or “Awards” tab.  Within that section, bettors will find a listing of all of the “wagerable” players in that betting market, along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.

As alluded to earlier, futures wagers are often listed at “plus-money”. All NFL 2019 MVP player markets currently offered are at plus-money in terms of odds. This means bettors correctly pegging the eventual award winner will make several times their original wager.

Take the example of the current pacesetter at both FD and DK’s sportsbooks — Chiefs quarterback and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. The third-year star’s odds sit at +600 at FD and +500 on DK. Those who accurately predict Mahomes to repeat as MVP champ this season will win $600 for every $100 they bet on FD and $500 for every $100 they wager on him at DK at current prices.

How is the NFL MVP award typically decided? 

The officially recognized NFL MVP award – the one that NFL MVP futures wagers are graded on – is that which is awarded by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 sportswriters conduct their vote at the conclusion of the regular season and prior to the beginning of the playoffs. The timing ensures that the regular season is the sole performance sample that is considered when the vote is conducted. The announcement of the MVP award winner occurs the day before the Super Bowl.

Despite the “spirit” of the term “most valuable player” – specifically, the characterization bestowed on a player whose absence would have the greatest negative impact on his team – that in itself is usually not enough without sufficient accompanying statistical reinforcement. Look no further than 2018 as an example. Based on the purest “most valuable player” definition, a strong case could have been made for other players besides Mahomes.

How far would the Colts have gotten with Jacoby Brissett instead of Andrew Luck under center? The Saints without Drew Brees? Or, perhaps the most obvious example – the world champion Patriots without Brady?

However, raw numbers are usually the tie-breaker. In Mahomes’ case, his 5,369 total yards and 52 total touchdowns rightfully held tremendous sway with the voters. And, combined with Mahomes’ unquestioned value to his team, it was enough to carry him to the award. In comparison, runner-up Brees, pivotal as he undeniably was to his own team’s fortunes, threw for 1,105 fewer yards and 11 fewer touchdowns than Mahomes.

Curiously, both players finished up their seasons in the same way – with losses in their respective conference championships.

Favorites to win NFL MVP in 2019

The odds on Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP in 2018 opened between +3000 and +5000

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

The news that receiver Tyreek Hill will not face any league-mandated suspension absent new evidence regarding his domestic issues certainly helped keep Mahomes at the top of the heap. The third-year quarterback was even better than expected during his first season as full-time starter. He threw for 5,097 yards and generated a 50:12 TD:INT. Mahomes is the defending champ and has access to all of the primary weapons he finished last season with. Therefore, he’s justifiably the odds-on favorite for a second consecutive award.

Tom Brady, Patriots

It wouldn’t be an upper-echelon MVP field without Brady. As mentioned earlier, he’s already earned the distinction on three other occasions. The 41-year-old’s 2018 numbers – 4,355 yards, 29 touchdowns, 11 interceptions – were certainly in line with his career norms. Not that personnel turnover seems to matter much when it comes to Brady, but the future Hall of Famer gets back several key weapons. There is, however, one major exception: Rob Gronkowski. The multi-time Pro Bowler is retired for the time being. It’s worth noting Brady unsurprisingly powered through Gronk’s three most injury-shortened seasons (2012, 2013, 2016) to still churn out impressive numbers. Nevertheless, he could easily still get outclassed in raw production by the likes of Mahomes, Rodgers or Brees when all is said and done.

Carson Wentz, Eagles

One could argue Wentz would have already come close to an MVP had he not gotten hurt in 2017. He was also trending favorably last season (career-high 69.6 completion percentage) before back fractures ended his campaign in November. Wentz is reportedly back at full health and armed with quite the offensive arsenal. That includes high-upside newcomers Jordan Howard and DeSean Jackson alongside incumbents Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. Wentz’s MVP prop has notably already proven very popular with bettors this summer. That’s a testament to the upside many believe he possesses if he can remain upright for all 16 games.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Rodgers already some MVP hardware in his trophy case (2011 and 2014). He may be just a bit more off the radar than usual to the casual fan after back-to-back seasons where he’s been constantly plagued by injury. However, the oddsmakers still rightfully think pretty highly of #12. Rodgers managed an elite 25:2 TD:INT and threw for 4,442 yards in 2018 despite playing with both an MCL sprain and a tibial plateau fracture. Trusted slot man Randall Cobb is now in Dallas. But Davante Adams is firmly entrenched as a formidable No. 1 option. Plus, the emerging trio of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison and Equanimeous St. Brown have the talent to round out the air attack in impressive fashion.