Now that the final two weeks of the 2023 MLB regular season have arrived, Cy Young odds show the favorites pulling away from the contenders. Based on the latest American League Cy Young odds, New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (-1800) is a heavy favorite over Seattle ace Luis Castillo (+1100). The NL Cy Young odds race is closer with Blake Snell from the San Diego Padres (-750) and Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs (+550) sitting at the top of the board. Below we will take a look at all of the 2023 Cy Young favorites.
Cy Young odds
MLB Cy Young odds for the 2023 season have been updated by select sportsbooks. Check out AL and NL odds below.
AL Cy Young odds
Gerrit Cole (-1800)
Despite what has turned out to be an extremely disappointing season for the New York Yankees, Cole continues to put up solid numbers as he ranks in the top 10 among all MLB pitchers in wins (13), ERA (2.81), Ks (208), and WHIP (1.05).
Luis Castillo (+1100)
The veteran right hander is up to an 13-7 record along with a 3.08 ERA and career-best 1.04 WHIP. While he’s having a bit more trouble keeping the ball in the park than recent seasons, his 27.6 percent strikeout rate and 15.5 percent swinging strike rate are both his best since the 2020 campaign.
|Player||AL Cy Young Odds March 22||AL Cy Young Odds May 4||AL Cy Young Odds June 30||AL Cy Young Odds August 29|
NL Cy Young odds
Blake Snell (-350)
The Padres have had a considerably disappointing season, but they may yet see one of their arms walk away with some valuable hardware. Snell’s 2.43 ERA – tops among all MLB pitchers – is the second best of his career, with only the 1.89 figure that he mustered back in his 2018 AL Cy Young season with the Rays a better figure. The southpaw’s 14 wins are also his most since the 21 he garnered that year.
Justin Steele (+550)
The Chicago Cubs are in the thick of the NL Wild Card race and lefty Justin Steele is a big reason why. His 16 wins rank second among MLB pitchers with only Spencer Strider of the Braves (17 wins) ahead of him. His 16-3 record, 2.73 ERA, 164 Ks, and 165 innings pitched are all career highs.
|Player||NL Cy Young Odds March 22||NL Cy Young Odds May 4||NL Cy Young Odds June 30||NL Cy Young Odds August 29|
What happened last year?
Here are how AL Cy Young odds changed throughout the course of last season.
|Player||AL Cy Young Odds April 6||AL Cy Young Odds May 15||AL Cy Young Odds June 30||AL Cy Young Odds July 20||AL Cy Young Odds August 24||AL Cy Young Odds September 8|
And here are how NL Cy Young odds changed throughout the course of last season.
|Player||NL Cy Young Odds April 6||NL Cy Young Odds May 15||NL Cy Young Odds June 29||NL Cy Young Odds July 20||NL Cy Young Odds August 24||NL Cy Young Odds September 8|
Best Cy Young betting site(s)
How to bet on the Cy Young
Placing an MLB futures bet on the AL or NL Cy Young award is all about mixing risk with reward. Your bet of choice will need to stay healthy and approach both 30 starts and 200 innings in a normal 162-game season. This is made more complicated by needing to target pitchers likely to rack up more than 200 strikeouts.
Preseason odds are assigned based on past pitcher and team success, and they’ll be regularly updated throughout the season based on current performance, as well as the public’s betting action. The favorites, as seen above, generally are the aces of teams expected to get to the MLB Playoffs. Getting top value means bettors need to correctly predict who’ll be the best pitcher on the team that will best exceed their expectations.
As mentioned earlier, many teams are stocked with two or even three “aces” in their starting five. This means that come voting season these pitchers will be sharing, or splitting, votes among themselves. It’s wise to target the more proven commodities on these teams, as they’re viewed as the de facto No. 1 option by those who aren’t true fans of the team.
The odds are best before the season, and they’ll become less and less profitable as the favorites emerge mid-way through the season. Bieber, who won last season’s AL Cy Young Award, opened with +330 odds at FanDuel for this season. This would return a profit of $330 on a $100 bet if he were to go back-to-back.
Where can I bet on the Cy Young Award?
To access these odds, head to the primary MLB/Baseball tab at your online book of choice. From there, select Futures from a drop-down menu and proceed to Player Futures or Awards. The American and National League Cy Young contenders will be displayed on separate lists or charts. The betting options will include all pitchers (starters and relievers) the books view as viable Cy Young candidates. Emerging contenders will be added throughout the year and injured or struggling pitchers may be dropped from the options.
Two new states will offer this futures market for fans looking to bet on this award next season. Kentucky betting apps will launch in September 2023, and North Carolina betting apps will launch in early 2024.
How the Cy Young Award is decided
As discussed above, players from the same team often need to split votes. This is because the Cy Young voters from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America are chosen from each MLB city. The local BBWAA chapter chairman of each city recommends two beat writers from daily newspapers, magazines or select websites. Writers from National League cities then vote for the NL Cy Young award and writers from American League cities vote for the AL Cy Young award.
Each writer is able to submit a ballot of five players for the Cy Young award. These ballots must be submitted prior to the start of the postseason and votes are then tallied based on a points system. A first-place vote is worth 7 points. Second-place is 4 points, third is 3 points, fourth is 2 points and a fifth-place vote is worth a single point.
Unlike with the MVP awards being open to the writer/voter’s interpretation of what Most Valuable Player may mean, the Cy Young simply goes to the best pitcher from either league. To be regarded as a top contender, pitchers must remain relatively healthy all season, and reach the desired statistical milestones of each voter.
The most hotly-debated issue when it comes to who’s worth a vote is “pitcher wins”. Some writers will discredit a hurler for finishing with a win-loss record below .500, or at least below another comparable pitcher. Others base their vote(s) purely on more individual pitcher statistics such as ERA, xFIP, and strikeout and walk rates.
Cy Young betting history: recent winners
|Year||AL Winner||Odds||NL Winner||Odds|
|2022||Justin Verlander (HOU)||+1600||Sandy Alcantara (MIA)||+1600|
|2021||Robbie Ray (TOR)||+20000||Corbin Burnes (MIL)||+4000|
|2020||Shane Bieber (CLE)||+1200||Trevor Bauer (CIN)||+2000|
|2019||Justin Verlander (HOU)||+1500||Jacob deGrom (NYM)||+350|
|2018||Blake Snell (TB)||+10000||Jacob deGrom (NYM)||+2500|
|2017||Corey Kluber (CLE)||+4000||Max Scherzer (WAS)||+350|
|2016||Rick Porcello (BOS)||+20000||Max Scherzer (WAS)||+10000|
|2015||Dallas Keuchel (HOU)||+15000||Jake Arrieta (CHC)||+4000|
|2014||Corey Kluber (CLE)||N/A||Clayton Kershaw (LAD)||+500|
|2013||Max Scherzer (DET)||+2000||Clayton Kershaw (LAD)||+600|
|2012||David Price (TB)||+700||R.A. Dickey (NYM)||N/A|
|2011||Justin Verlander (DET)||+1000||Clayton Kershaw (LAD)||+1500|
|2010||Felix Hernandez (SEA)||+500||Roy Halladay (PHI)||+250|