2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Preview: Everything To Know About Colonial Country Club

The PGA TOUR heads to Colonial Country Club with the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge. Compare Charles Schwab Challenge odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

In one of the most competitive stretches of the PGA TOUR schedule, the stars continue to shine in the Lone Star State. We head to Fort Worth for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge at the new and improved Colonial Country Club. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s Charles Schwab Challenge odds.

We’ve grown accustomed to seeing Colonial CC on the schedule, as it’s the longest-running host course on TOUR. While it’s gone through a myriad of different sponsors, 2024 marks the 78th installment of this event, dating to 1946. Notably, it served as host for golf’s return from its COVID hiatus in June 2020. It attracted an unusually strong field and saw uncharacteristic course conditions crop up.

Colonial CC is a quintessential positional course that historically mitigates distance advantage and produced a diverse cast of winners. Emiliano Grillo, Sam Burns, and Jason Kokrak’s driver-heavy approach in their recent victories exposed Colonial as no longer the positional test it was originally intended. A significant course renovation last year makes for a refreshed Charles Schwab Challenge in 2024.

The players who catch the hottest irons and putter are the ones who historically prevail at this event. There’s an added premium on mid-irons and accuracy off the tee in order to work the ball around this golf course and create the best angles to attack pins and generate scoring opportunities. We’ll run through the key facts and info about Colonial CC ahead of the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge.

CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds and to compare prices across the best sportsbooks in your state. With Scottie Scheffler’s incredible win equity in the field, only two favorites this week opened with odds shorter than 15-1.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The Charles Schwab Challenge is a 133-player invitational, maintaining the standard “top-65 and ties” cut rules. For DFS purposes, that means we can expect a higher 6/6 percentage this week.

A storied event that lacks the “Signature” status bump on this season’s schedule, the Charles Schwab Challenge attracted a decent field despite following the PGA Championship.

Texas native Scottie Scheffler headlines the field this week and will have the home crowd on his side all week. Scheffler loves playing in Texas and was disappointed to have to miss the Valero Texas Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson while expecting the birth of his first child. He’ll be a late arrival to Colonial CC this week, as he’ll need to attend an arraignment for his arrest in Louisville on Tuesday. A Wednesday arrival at the RBC Heritage didn’t stop him from dominating, so there is no question this is Scheffler’s event to lose.

In addition to Scheffler, 20 OWGR top-40 players will tee it up in Dallas this week. Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth round out the list of headliners.

Emiliano Grillo returns to defend his title after edging past Adam Schenk in a playoff. Daniel Berger, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott, Zach Johnson, and Rory Sabbatini also return to the field as past champs.

INTRODUCTION TO COLONIAL CC

Immediately following the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner embarked on an extensive renovation project with the goal of restoring Colonial Country Club to its roots. The goal was to return the course to when it hosted the 1941 U.S. Open. In doing so, Hans and Wagner developed a more sustainable agronomy to withstand North Texas’ harsh climate changes throughout the year. That renovation project is complete, with a fresh and modernized Colonial Country Club ready to take the stage.

The entire course was ripped up in order to route new irrigation systems throughout the property. The course was then re-sodded using the same Bentgrass base. The layout of the course was largely unchanged. The exception of holes No. 13 and No. 18 saw brand new greens constructed. The new routing at Colonial also features a new barranca and rivetted bunkers – two classic staples of Hanse’s design philosophy.

Overall, the primary goal of the renovation was to introduce a more modern and sustainable irrigation system. While extensive work has been done to the course, its playability shouldn’t change drastically. That said, the course will look different to the eye, and it remains to be seen how the newly introduced greens and hazards affect play. I’ll deprioritize the weight I put on Course History this week, understanding this will not be the exact same Colonial CC we saw for 78 years.

How It Breaks Down

Colonial CC is a classical, tree-lined, and positional golf course with a rich history. As a par 70 just over 7,200 yards, it’s stood the test of time and challenged the field year after year. It keeps scores in check and has led to many dramatic finishes.

Precision off the tee, accuracy on approach, and putting pedigree are the consistent key characteristics we’ve seen from winners like Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, and others.

Winning scores pushed beyond -15 only twice since 2011. With the area receiving less rain than in recent years, I would expect a winning score of around -12 to -13. The DFW Metroplex may have the most dense population of golf obsessives in the United States. So, the Charles Schwab Challenge always welcomed electric atmospheres. Local Texans take much pride in competing each year. The event should have the full attention of players like Scheffler and Spieth despite the Major turnaround.

For Colonial CC course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Charles Schwab Challenge page.

Editor’s Note

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Course History has proven very predictive at Colonial CC. Of the last nine Charles Schwab Challenge winners, six posted a T10 or better finish within three years prior. Rose is the only player within the past decade who won in his debut appearance. The list of players with a T10 finish over the last three years at this event includes: Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Brian Harman, Brendon Todd, Charley Hoffman, Davis Riley, Cam Davis, Scottie Scheffler, Troy Merritt, Michael Kim, Adam Schenk, Kevin Streelman, Paul Haley II, Harry Hall, and Max Homa.

Looking at recent course history, 10 players posted multiple T15 finishes within the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Andrew Putnam, Collin Morikawa, Charley Hoffman, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Emiliano Grillo, Brendon Todd, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Rose.

Six players avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Mark Hubbard, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Lucas Glover, Daniel Berger, and Brandt Snedeker.

The top 10 players in terms of overall course history at Colonial CC are: Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, Harris English, Emiliano Grillo, Daniel Berger, and Ryan Palmer.

Jordan Spieth

One could argue Spieth’s history and consistency at the Charles Schwab is the most dominant of any currently active PGA player on a given course. He amassed 79 strokes gained on the field over 38 career rounds – an average 2.2 SG per round. For context, Finau ranks No. 2 in total strokes gained at Colonial CC, with 43 total strokes over 32 rounds. He is the only player in this field to have gained even half as many strokes at this event as Spieth over the same span.

It’s a home game for Spieth in his native DFW. He’ll stay in his childhood home for the week and put on a show in front of local friends, family, and fans. He looked solid at the PGA Championship last week, and we should expect him to be a factor in this week’s tournament in his return to Fort Worth.

In 10 career appearances since 2013, Spieth has one victory, three runner-ups, and nine total finishes inside the top 14. Prior to a MC in 2023 – while battling a wrist injury – his worst outing came in 2018 when he finished T32 while still gaining over seven strokes from tee to green. Given his strong course history, it’ll be interesting to monitor where Spieth’s Charles Schwab Challenge odds open this week.

He’s expected to be the second favorite behind Scheffler.

Course Comps

Colonial CC slots in well with some of the other shorter, positional, wind-exposed courses we see on the yearly TOUR schedule. A similar formula of driving accuracy, approach precision, and strong putting continues to be the script to find success here. I lean to Sedgefield CC as the top overall comp course. Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia have won both events within the last 10 years. We’ve seen players like Reed, Snedeker, Poston, Na, Simpson, Spieth, and Scott post T5 finishes in both events over recent years. Both par 70s share a similar emphasis on those key characteristics of driving accuracy, approach and long-term putting.

In addition to Sedgefield, I also like Memorial Park for a comp as another challenging, wind-exposed Texas course which featured a recent Kokrak win and strong performances from Finau.

TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Pebble Beach GL, Innisbrook Resort, and Waialae CC have also shared similar overlapping leaderboards with shared emphasis on positional play and strong iron play from inside 200 yards.

Lastly, Austin Country Club jumps out as one of the better comps from a player profile and leaderboard overlap standpoint, even if played in two different formats of golf. Sam Burns, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, Ian Poulter, and Bubba Watson have each had recent success on both of these shorter Texas tracks.

Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are: Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Billy Horschel, JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Collin Morikawa, Max Greyserman, Brian Harman, and Thomas Detry.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• SG: APP / GIRs Gained
• Par 4: 350-450
• Prox: 125-200
• Good Drives Gained / Driving Accuracy
• SG: Putting (L36, Bent)
• Doubles Avoided
• Course & Comp Course History

We’ve seen a sticky formula of repeated success on courses which remove distance advantage and instead reward control both off the tee and on approach. When we also consider that scoring will remain in check – likely no further beyond a -15 winner – we have less randomness to account for. As with most 7,200-yard courses, irons will likely decide things. The top 10 in terms of SG: APP entering this week are Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge, Keith Mitchell, Tony Finau, Lucas Glover, Greyson Sigg, Si Woo Kim, Aaron Rai, Keegan Bradley, and Ryan Moore.

Precision off the tee remains of vital importance this week. The heavily treelined setup will block out approach shots for any significant misses. Since the rough is not incredibly penal, the Good Drives Gained stat has been a bit more predictive of success at Colonial CC than pure accuracy. There is more of an advantage to hitting drives to the correct side of the hole than simply finding the fairway. The top 10 in terms of Good Drives Gained are: Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Tway, Austin Smotherman, Kevin Yu, Victor Perez, Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, Aaron Rai, Brandon Wu, and Chesson Hadley.

A combination of Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, Prox: 100-200, and weighted SG: P (Bent and Total) looks like the simplest approach to narrowing down a player pool this week. Ten players rate out above average in each of those categories: Scottie Scheffler, Mark Hubbard, Tom Hoge, Sepp Straka, Nate Lashley, Andrew Putnam, Chesson Hadley, Victor Perez, Martin Laird, and Ben Martin.

Approach from Shorter Range

Unique to Colonial CC, 82% of approach shots will come from inside 200 yards, so it’s a great week to hone in on players who thrive with their wedges and mid-irons. The top 10 players in terms of SG: APP with Prox 200+ removed are: Scottie Scheffler, Aaron Rai, Nicolai Hojgaard, Viktor Hovland, Chris Kirk, Kevin Yu, Doug Ghim, Austin Smotherman, Zac Blair, and Zach Johnson.

Looking at the hole ranges this week, it’s also key to look at performance on par 4s from the 350-450 range. Half the holes on this course fall within these distances. The top-10 in P4: 350-450 Scoring are: Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Justin Lower, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Tway, Maverick McNealy, CT Pan, and Ben Griffin.

Correlation

Looking at the correlation charts this week, it’s notable to see the precipitous drop in the importance of Par-5 Scoring at Colonial CC compared to TOUR average. That makes sense on this par 70, which features one par 5 reachable in two for the full field and a second par 5 not reachable in two for anyone.

We also see a notable drop in the importance of SG: OTT and P4: 450-500. Emiliano Grillo, Jason Kokrak, and Sam Burns have excelled in both areas in their wins each of the last three years. Over the history of this event, however, the shorter hitters have found the most success, capitalizing on their driving accuracy and short to mid-irons. 

Par 4: 350-400 and Par 4: 400-450 represent the biggest climbers in terms of importance at Colonial CC, considering half the holes this week will fall within these two ranges, a bit of an unusual set up for a PGA TOUR course.

Just 11 players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Aaron Rai, Mark Hubbard, Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge, Sepp Straka, Andrew Putnam, Ryan Moore, Chris Kirk, Chesson Hadley, and Greyson Sigg.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Austin Eckroat

Those with Texas ties tend to fare well at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and while Austin Eckroat isn’t native to the Lone Star State, he is still. a Cowboy for all that’s worth. The Oklahoma State graduate was a key contributor alongside teammate Viktor Hovland in their collegiate championship together. Eckroat still resides in Edson, Oklahoma and has seemed to relish every opportunity to return back to this part of the country.

In his 2023 Rookie Season, Eckroat finished T2 and T16 in two Texas starts between the Valero Texas Open and Charles Schwab Challenge. In his next return to Texas this season, he remained in solid form with a T33 showing at the Valero Texas Open. Now a proven PGA TOUR winner since taking down the Cognizant Classic at PGA National in February, he should return to Fort Worth with heightened confidence.

We have a small sample size to draw from, but Eckroat has proven he can handle a classic Gil Hanse redesign after finishing T10 at the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC. A skilled ball-striker with a proven resume in challenging conditions, Eckroat is a great fit for this fresh look Colonial Country Club, and is showing excellent form at the PGA Championship where he enters Sunday inside the top-10.

Charles Schwab challenge MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

In my BTN model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP first and foremost, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: T2G (Recent Form), P4: 350-450, Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 100-200, SG: P (TOT + Bent) and Doubles Avoided.

Scottie Scheffler is in the field this week, so naturally it is he who claims the No. 1 spot in my model. It’s been a self-proclaimed traumatic week for the World No. 1 amidst all the legal trouble he is facing in Louisville, and we’ve just begun to see him look human for the first time this season. Even still, he is a deserving prohibitive favorite and should expect a hero’s welcome when playing in front of a supportive crowd of local friends and family.

After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Aaron Rai, Mark Hubbard, Keith Mitchell, Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, Sepp Straka, Nate Lashley, Billy Horschel, and Andrew Putnam.

When 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge odds open Monday, I’ll look to Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, and Max Homa amongst the favorites as my first potential targets. I’ll also keep an eye on Austin Eckroat, Chris Kirk, and Keegan Bradley in a second tier of values, depending on where the odds ultimately open.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge odds!

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