Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

Bills at Patriots

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Each week, TheLines will provide a betting breakdown and analysis for the upcoming Thursday Night Football game. We’ll look at the odds and see why they’re moving a certain way, along with breaking down the matchup and providing the week’s best prop bets. The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will face off at Gillette Stadium in an AFC East showdown on Dec. 1. Here we will look at TNF betting odds including the spread, moneyline, total and much more.

TNF betting odds and analysis

Buffalo Bills () at New England Patriots () – 8:15 p.m. ET

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will face off at Gillette Stadium in an AFC East showdown on Thursday, Dec. 1. The game will mark the 126th meeting in a series the Patriots lead by a 77-47-1 margin. 

This game will be the first of the two 2022 meetings between the teams. The Bills come into the contest having secured their second consecutive victory, a 28-25 squeaker over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. The Patriots closed out the holiday slate with a 33-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on the road. 

The line for this game has stayed in the Bills -4.5 to Bills -5.5 range over the course of the past week. The Patriots versus Bills point spread is currently Buffalo .

The total has also been shrinking, somewhat surprisingly given the offensive firepower both teams displayed in their respective Thanksgiving games while combining for 54 points. The Bills versus Patriots over under is currently points.

The two regular season meetings in 2021, which the teams split by each winning in the other’s home stadium, ended with 24 and 54 total points being scored before a 47-17 Bills win in the AFC Wild Card Game.

  • The Bills are 5-5-1 against the spread this season, including 2-3-1 as a road team and 0-2 against AFC East opponents. 
  • The Over is 3-8 in Buffalo’s games this season, including 0-6 in its road games and 0-2 in AFC East games. 
  • The Patriots are 6-4-1 against the spread this season, including 3-2 as a home team and 2-1 against division opponents. 
  • The Over is 5-6 in New England’s games this season, including 2-3 in its home games and 0-3 in games against AFC East opponents.

Thursday Night Football prop search tool

Looking to bet on props for Thursday Night Football? Use our prop search tool to find the best odds across legal sportsbooks in the US.

Buffalo vs. New England betting news

Bills at Patriots game matchup

Josh Allen (elbow) did not look 100% during the Thanksgiving Day win over the Lions, but the star quarterback put on a trademark effort with plenty of zip on his throws during the game-winning drive. Whether that was simply a product of adrenaline remains to be seen, but Allen and his pass-catching crew does have a stiff test in front of it versus a Patriots defense that’s typically been difficult to pass against, especially at home. New England is surrendering an NFL-low 130.2 passing yards per home game. However, it’s worth noting Allen was able to consistently solve Bill Belichick and company’s defensive schemes in the last two meetings, throwing for a combined 622 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions over the Week 16 and Wild Card wins for the Bills. Allen was also able to run with plenty of success in both contests, garnering 130 rushing yards on 18 carries. 

The ground game can frequently take a back seat in Buffalo, but Devin Singletary, much like last season, is starting to take on a bigger role as the season enters the stretch run. Singletary will enter Thursday’s game with double-digit carries in five of the previous six contests, and he’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns in the last three games specifically. The matchup against the Patriots run defense has been much easier at home for some reason – they’re allowing 133.8 rushing yards per contest at Gillette Stadium, along with 4.7 yards per rush attempt there. The Bills’ offensive line is now facilitating an impressive 4.7 RB yards per carry in its own right after recent success, while ranking No. 5 and No. 4 in second-level and open-field yards created, respectively. 

On the other side, Mac Jones will be aiming to build on his 382-yard, two-touchdown night against the Vikings in the high-scoring Week 12 defeat. It was a rare display of explosiveness for the young quarterback against what is a questionable secondary, but it doesn’t figure to be anywhere near as easy Thursday night. The Bills’ talented defensive backfield has helped limit opponents to just 213.9 passing yards per road game, and Buffalo’s defense boasts a dangerous concoction of strong pass rushers and ball-hawking linebackers and defensive backs. The Bills have snagged a co-AFC-high 13 interceptions and recorded 30 sacks, a foreboding sign considering Jones’ seven picks and the fact New England has conceded 31 sacks of its quarterbacks overall. 

Jones does have a talented running back duo in Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson that he can usually lean on, but that tandem may be down to one Thursday. Harris suffered a thigh injury in the loss to the Vikings that will likely keep him out of this game. Stevenson has already done a good job shouldering the backfield workload on his own this season when Harris was out with a hamstring injury for all but six snaps in Week 5 against the Lions and then for all of Week 6 versus the Browns. However, those were two premium matchups on the ground, and the assignment looks a bit more challenging by the numbers Thursday. The Bills are allowing only 96.1 rushing yards per road game at 3.9 yards per attempt, and Buffalo also ranks No. 3 and No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ Power and Stuffed categories overall on the season.

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Here are the best TNF betting odds sites. Each sportsbook has a variety of props for Thursday Night Football.

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How to watch Thursday Night Football

The Thursday Night Football schedule is the most complex of the primetime NFL spots.

The first Thursday season opener doesn’t fall under the TNF title. Bills versus Rams in Week 1 was broadcast on NBC at 8:20 p.m. ET. And, the three-game Thanksgiving slate is carried by three different networks.

The rest of the NFL Thursday night schedule will be broadcast nationally on Amazon Prime Video. Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit will have the call starting in Week 2 with Chiefs versus Chargers. Each Thursday night game will begin at 8:20 p.m. Eastern, regardless of the network.

Thursday Night Football betting tips

How to bet TNF like a sharp

Thursday Night Football condenses the practice week for coaches, decreases recovery time for players and limits opportunities for media members to uncover stories and create narratives. This unpredictability factor can help to level the sports-betting playing field.

Taking the most rested team is never a bad idea. You want the healthiest squad with the longest amount of preparation time since its last game.

Siding with the home team in what would otherwise be a pick’em doesn’t hurt, either. You want the team that’s spent the longest amount of time preparing in the proper city, not wasting what can be the better of a day traveling.

You want the healthiest side, as simple as that. Without a proper injury report, it can be tough to tell what level of health players will be at when gearing up to play in a big primetime spot. Don’t expect a player who left a game Sunday to return in elite form by Thursday. He’ll more than likely be a decoy.

Don’t fall into the public opinion trap of TNF always being a lousy game. It’s still one of only 17 games those two teams will play all year and most of them generally need to win. Coaches will do the best with what they have, and plenty of players have burst onto the scene with strong games while filling in for an injured starter.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does Thursday Night Football start?

The true 2022 Thursday Night Football slate will start with the Chargers taking on the Chiefs.

How to stream Thursday Night Football

TNF can be streamed live on Amazon Prime.

What is the highest-scoring Thursday Night Football game ever?

The Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 41-39 in Week 3 of the 2017 campaign in the highest-scoring TNF game of all time.

Who are the TNF announcers?

Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit will call TNF. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, who moved from FOX to ESPN, previously had the call.

Hannah Storm and Andrea Kremer made history in 2018 as the first all-woman NFL broadcast team as an alternate stream for Amazon Prime viewers.

Who was the original Thursday Night Football broadcast crew?

The original TNF broadcast crew for NFL Network in 2006 was Bryant Gumbel and Cris Collinsworth.

Retired Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo memorably joined Jim Nantz for CBS’ final year of TNF coverage in 2017.

Who sings the Thursday Night Football theme song?

Amazon is expected to air its own instrumental theme to begin the coverage, unlike the SNF and MNF primetime spots.