College Football All-Continuity List 2024: How Do 29 Teams’ Win Totals Stack Up?

For the 2024 college football season, 29 teams return their head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback. At this point, it’s unlikely that the number will change, though it is possible. This total matches last year’s 29 teams to have that kind of program continuity. Continuity in college football is paramount and increasingly rare. Three of the four teams that made the College Football Playoff in 2023 were on the All-Continuity list last year – the other was Alabama. So, what can we expect from this year’s roster of college football All-Continuity teams with regard to their win totals?

Below, we’ll take a look. Follow along with TheLines all offseason long for coverage of college football odds. Scroll to the bottom of the article for a complete list of the 29 teams.

Methodology

Teams included here return their primary starting QB, full-year head coach, and both offensive and defensive coordinators. By “primary starting QB” I refer to the intended starting QB. So, Utah counts since they return Cameron Rising despite him missing last year due to injury because he was intended to be the starting QB. Nebraska returns Heinrich Haarberg, although it’s unlikely he’ll be the Day 1 starting QB next season.

College Football Continuity: What Happened Last Season?

Let’s dive back a year to look at how last season’s 29 teams fared. I broke those teams up into two tiers: teams that won eight or more games in 2022 and teams that won fewer than eight games in 2022. The reason behind that is twofold. First, there was a clear difference between the two groups. Secondly, eight wins is a generally successful season for most programs. (Note: “Most” excluding teams like Georgia or Michigan.)

More than 8 wins

Last year’s group of 8+ win All-Continuity teams fared much better than years prior. Half of the list failed to match or exceed their 2022 win total (in 2022, not a single team exceeded theirs!). You’ll also note three of the four CFP participants – Michigan, Washington, and Texas – as well as a fourth team that had a strong argument to be a participant (Florida State).

Teams at or above eight wins, on average, increased their number of wins by 0.33. Compare this to last year, where 8+ win All-Continuity teams regressed by an average 2.6 wins. Projecting forward, that number’s likely to remain at or below zero. It’s difficult to improve on a 9-3 or better record year over year, even with continuity.

Perhaps a takeaway from this section is in regards to high-level programs that went 8-4 the year before, like Texas. Spotting talented teams that return the most important pieces who underachieved the year before could be a recipe for serious steps forward.

Less than 8 wins

Last year, only one team failed to match its year-over-year win total on this list. This year, just two do. This year’s sub-eight-win All-Continuity teams improved their win total by an average 2.31 wins. The larger average jump in wins is easily explainable; a 5-7 season is much more easily improved upon than a 10-2 one. But note by how much some of these teams improved, particularly Arizona and Virginia Tech.

Oklahoma is an outlier on this list, as the Sooners posted one of their worst seasons in modern history in 2022, leading to an expected and effortless turnaround in 2023. Memphis fell on the right side of more one-score games this year than in years past under Ryan Silverfield.

Note some teams on this list that we’ll see again below in this year’s All-Continuity list: Colorado State and Virginia Tech. Those two-time All-Continuity players are prime candidates for serious progression in 2024.

In general, bad or underperforming teams that return their head coach, both coordinators, and starting QB increase their win total significantly year over year.

Important Notes

Taking this stat in a vacuum naturally causes a lot of issues. For one, did one of the teams that fell in wins have an outlier season like South Alabama? Is the returning quarterback worth two cents? Did the strength of schedule change? Did perhaps the team suffer cluster injuries like Utah?

This year, conference realignment throws a major wrench into this formula. Four teams on this year’s list change conferences: Texas (Big 12 to SEC), SMU (AAC to ACC), Utah (Pac-12 to Big 12), and Stanford (Pac-12 to ACC). In the case of Utah, its strength of conference schedule drops. For Texas, it significantly increases.

Looking at All-Continuity trends should be another tool in the bag rather than an end-all, be-all.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL WIN TOTALS: TEAMS WiTH MOST CONTINUITY

Right away, there’s some pretty clear parallels year over year. Georgia’s 13 wins and continuity closely mirrors Michigan’s from last year. Virginia Tech’s win improvement from three to seven – and then landing on the All-Continuity list – closely mirrors Arizona’s recent progression. A glut of talent and seeming maxing of potential for Ole Miss could resemble Washington from a year ago.

A historically successful team with large brand awareness and plenty of roster talent that underachieved like 2022 Texas? How about Florida. However, the Gators own the nation’s most difficult schedule in terms of average opposing preseason power rating.

Keep in mind teams like Miami (OH) and SMU have almost no room to improve. Miami’s defensive finish from last season was certainly an outlier, though the Redhawks typically field an above-average stop unit. SMU moves to a more difficult conference, the ACC. Despite superior talent for the Mustangs, SMU is a prime regression candidate.

Sometimes, boiling these teams down to quarterback talent is a simple yet effective way to project improvement. Last year, I highlighted Memphis, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arizona – all four of whom exceeded their win totals. This year, Nebraska, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia are my top over-win total candidates.

Even More Continuity

With just 29 of 134 teams returning their starting QB, head coach, and both coordinators (20% of all teams), continuity in the college ranks is rare. It’s the nature of the sport, with players cycling out every three to six years. The transfer portal makes this even more so.

What’s exceedingly more rare is teams that roll over this kind of continuity two years in a row.

However, with the introduction of NIL, this may be an increasingly common trend. This year, seven teams roll this continuity over two seasons in a row: Colorado State, FIU, Miami (OH), Texas, Texas Tech, Utah, and Virginia Tech. The Hokies went 0-3 in one-score games last season, making them a prime over candidate. FIU plays a bottom-10 strength of schedule, making them a decent consideration for over on their college football win totals, as well (OTB).

2024 COLLEGE FOOTBALL ALL-CONTINUITY LIST: RETURNING QB, HEAD COACH, COORDINATORS

Team	2023 Wins	2024 Win Total
Georgia	13
Liberty	13
Texas*	12
Ole Miss	11
SMU	11
Miami (OH)*	11
Oklahoma State	10
West Virginia	9
Clemson	9
Fresno State	9
Appalachian State	9
Utah*	8
Georgia Tech	7
Iowa State	7
Texas Tech*	7
Virginia Tech*	7
USF	7
Bowling Green	7
Louisiana	6
Arkansas State	6
Old Dominion	6
Florida	5
Nebraska	5
Colorado State*	5
Purdue	4
UAB	4
FIU*	4
Virginia	3
Stanford	3

*Indicates a team rolls over head coach, both coordinators, and primary starting QB for a third consecutive year.