Incumbent President Joe Biden is the favorite at most sportsbooks to win the Presidency in 2024. Biden has around +135 election odds for US President. Former US President Donald Trump is around +250 at most sportsbooks and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is +550. Each one of the trio have all held the 2024 Presidential Election Odds favorite tag over the past year and the board is in constant flux. Trump’s odds to win again actually improved on March 30 when he was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. Trump had been around +350 to win at most books prior to the indictment.
DeSantis has seen his Presidential odds lengthen in recent weeks, possibly due to his public fight with Disney – and Trump’s subsequent social media bashing of the Florida governor. DeSantis was +333 at most books last week but is now hovering around +550. One name that shot up Election odds 2024 boards recently was former FOX News host Tucker Carlson. Carlson is still a longshot at +6600 but had been around +15000 prior to his ouster at FOX.
Presidential Election Odds 2024 (June 4)
Here is a look at odds to win US President in 2024. Election odds 2024 have Joe Biden at +135. Donald Trump is +250 and Ron DeSantis is +550. View Election betting odds for those candidates and more below.
|Candidate||Election Odds President 2024: BetMGM Ontario||Election Odds President 2024: FanDuel Ontario|
|Robert Kennedy Jr.||+5000||+2000|
|Dwayne The Rock Johnson||+5000||+6600|
|Donald Trump Jr||+10000||+10000|
Republican and Democrat 2024 odds
BetMGM Canada also allows bettors to wager on the winning party for 2024.
Current political landscape
Biden’s approval rating for his fifth quarter as President was extremely low as he was at 41.3%, according to Gallup data. With sky-high gas prices and the tensions with Russia, Biden is far from the most popular Commander In Chief of all-time at the moment.
Rising on 2024 US President odds boards recently has been Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who held the same odds as Biden himself on April 28 of this year. The FBI raid on former President Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago in August also cast doubt on if Trump would run in 2024 given potential legal issues and court dates.
Biden remains the likely Democratic nominee despite struggling in polls. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.
That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:
- Donald Trump, 2017-2021
- George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
- Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
- Gerald Ford, 1974-77
- Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
- William Howard Taft, 1909-13
- Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
- Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
- John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
- John Adams, 1797-1801
Will Trump run in 2024?
As for Trump, he remains among the favorites. There are plenty of long shots on the board this time around given the current political climate. The US elected Trump, who had no previous political experience, in 2016. Simply being a celebrity with a sizable following seems to be enough these days. It’s why names like Dwayne Johnson, Tucker Carlson and Dave Portnoy have been on the board for months.
The first deciding events in an election year are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.
By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.
Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?
Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Election betting explained
Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.
The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.
Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.
That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.
What to monitor: polling data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders
In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former VP Mike Pence and Trump’s daughter, Ivanka.
2024 Presidential betting tips
In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.
That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.
Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.
Can you bet in the US?
You cannot legally bet on US elections using traditional sportsbooks but PredictIt allows users to trade shares – much like the stock market – on the outcomes of elections and events.
PredictIt has dozens of markets in which you can try and predict the outcome of a political race or event. The way it works is that you buy shares for or against an event taking place. You can then trade your shares, with the goal of buying your shares low and then selling them high.
One example of a PredictIt market is “Will Donald Trump file to run for President before the end of 2022?”
On June 25, the closing price on “Yes” for Trump to file to run for President before the end of 2022 was 38 cents. On June 27 it was 41 cents and on July 1 it was at 37 cents.
It’s up to you to decide whether to cash in or hang on until the market closes.
If you sign up for PredictIt here, you will get $50 free when you deposit $50.