The latest 2024 presidential election odds show Vice President Kamala Harris as the favorite over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reins in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now.
That said, in late March 2021 Biden said that his plan is to run for re-election in 2024.
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Presidential election odds 2024 (July 31)
Here’s a look at the current US Presidential Election odds at a top UK book. You can also see markets involving many of the candidates below. Select PredictIt markets are listed in the right hand column – click to predict it!
|Kamala Harris||+350||Harris files for President before 2023?|
|Joe Biden||+400||Will Biden resign during first term?|
|Donald Trump||+650||Trump files for President before 2023?|
|Ron DeSantis||+1100||GOP 2024 Presidential nominee?|
|Nikki Haley||+1200||Woman President in 2024?|
|AOC||+1600||AOC files for President before 2024?|
|Mike Pence||+1600||Pence files for President before 2023?|
|Ivanka Trump||+2500||Ivanka Trump in 2022 FL GOP Sen primary?|
|Ted Cruz||+3300||Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?|
|Marco Rubio||+5000||Which party will win the FL Senate race?|
Bet on Republican nominee
Donald Trump is the Republican nominee favorite at PredictIt with a “Yes” price of 32 cents. That is the equivalent of +213 odds. Click on the odds below to make a wager on the candidate you believe will win.
|Nominee||PredictIt Price||Equivalent Odds|
|Donald Trump Jr.||$0.03||+3233|
Bet on Democratic nominee
Biden is the favorite to be the Democratic nominee at PredictIt with a latest “Yes” price of 45 cents. That is the equivalent of +122 odds. Click on the odds below to make a wager on the candidate you believe will win.
|Nominee||PredictIt Price||Equivalent Odds|
Current political landscape
Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. It’s reasonable to assume the leaders in those communities could fire that machine back up in 2024 to get behind her.
The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.
That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:
- Donald Trump, 2017-2021
- George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
- Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
- Gerald Ford, 1974-77
- Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
- William Howard Taft, 1909-13
- Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
- Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
- John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
- John Adams, 1797-1801
If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example.
Harris’ nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history.
As for Trump, he had been at +550 in early May but those odds may have grown longer due to reports that he could have to spend a significant amount of time in court over the next few years. The 45th President of the United States and his business associates are being investigated for alleged financial fraud by Manhattan prosecutors.
There are plenty of long shots on the board this time around given the current political climate. The US elected Trump, who had no previous political experience, in 2016. Simply being a celebrity with a sizable following seems to be enough these days. It’s why names like Dwayne Johnson, Tucker Carlson and Dave Portnoy have been on the board for months.
The first deciding events in an election year are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.
By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.
Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?
The short answer is yes.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Election betting explained
Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.
The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.
Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.
That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.
What to monitor: polling data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders
In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former VP Mike Pence and Trump’s daughter, Ivanka.
2024 Presidential betting tips
In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.
That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.
Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.
Can you bet in the US?
You cannot legally bet on US elections using traditional sportsbooks but PredictIt allows users to trade shares – much like the stock market – on the outcomes of elections and events.
PredictIt has dozens of markets in which you can try and predict the outcome of a political race or event. The way it works is that you buy shares for or against an event taking place. You can then trade your shares, with the goal of buying your shares low and then selling them high.
One example of a PredictIt market is “Will Donald Trump file to run for President before the end of 2022?”
On June 25, the closing price on “Yes” for Trump to file to run for President before the end of 2022 was 38 cents. On June 27 it was 41 cents and on July 1 it was at 37 cents.
It’s up to you to decide whether to cash in or hang on until the market closes.
If you sign up for PredictIt here, you will get $50 free when you deposit $50.