Former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are the betting favorites at most sportsbooks to win the Presidency in 2024. Trump currently has around +150 election odds to again become US President at most sportsbooks. Biden has around +156 election odds to earn a second term as US President. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+614) and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (+1329) also in the mix.
View updated United States Presidential Election odds for 2024 below.
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|Robert Kennedy Jr.||+3233||3%|
Implied probabilities are calculated using data offered by PredictIt.
Last Updated: 2023-12-01 17:00:02 PDT.
Presidential Election Odds 2024 (December 1)
Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. Election odds currently have Donald Trump at +150. Joe Biden is +156, and Gavin Newsom is +614. View election betting odds and percentage chance to win for those candidates and more below.
|Candidate||US President Election Odds||Implied % Chance|
|Robert Kennedy Jr.||+4900||2%|
Republican and Democrat 2024 odds
BetMGM Canada also allows bettors to wager on the winning party for 2024.
Current political landscape
Falling on 2024 Presidential odds boards in the past few months have been anti-vaxxer Robert Kennedy Jr. and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. RFK Jr. had the third shortest odds, behind Biden and Trump, during the late summer months. DeSantis, meanwhile, had actually been the overall betting favorite at times during the first half of this year.
Biden remains the likely Democratic nominee despite struggling in polls. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.
That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:
- Donald Trump, 2017-2021
- George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
- Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
- Gerald Ford, 1974-77
- Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
- William Howard Taft, 1909-13
- Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
- Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
- John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
- John Adams, 1797-1801
Will Trump run in 2024?
As for Trump, he remains among the favorites. There are plenty of long shots on the board this time around given the current political climate. The US elected Trump, who had no previous political experience, in 2016. Simply being a celebrity with a sizable following seems to be enough these days. It’s why names like Dwayne Johnson, Tucker Carlson and Dave Portnoy have been on the board for months.
The first deciding events in an election year are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.
By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.
Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?
Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Election betting explained
Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.
The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.
Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.
That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.
What to monitor: polling data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders
In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books initially felt that the Democrats would break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Gavin Newsom is the current favorite to lead the Dems if Biden is not able to run.
While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at sportsbooks right now, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is the next top contender. After that, the field contains Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis.
2024 Presidential betting tips
In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.
That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.
Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.
Can you bet On The Election in the US?
You cannot legally bet on elections using regulated online sportsbooks in the US. Election odds are only a regulated market at Ontario online sportsbooks.
You can partake in our free-to-play election games by clicking on the link below. These games are available to anyone 21+ in the United States.