Election Odds 2024 | Presidential Lines

Who will be the next US President?

election odds 2020

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden go back and forth daily as the election-betting favorites in most sportsbooks to win the presidency in 2024. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+1900) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (+1900) are also in the mix on US President odds boards.

View updated United States Presidential Election odds for 2024 below.

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NAME ODDS PROBABILITY
Donald Trump +104 49%
Joe Biden +108 48%
Gavin Newsom +1900 5%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +2400 4%
Kamala Harris +3233 3%
Nikki Haley +9900 1%
Pete Buttigieg +9900 1%
Ron DeSantis +9900 1%
Tim Scott +9900 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy +9900 1%

Implied probabilities are calculated using data offered by PredictIt.
Last Updated: 2024-05-17 15:00:03 PDT.

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Election Odds (May 17)

Here is a look at the US Election odds for 2024. Donald Trump’s presidential election odds are currently at +110, Joe Biden’s are +120, and Gavin Newsom’s are +1900. View presidential election betting odds and percentage chances to win for those candidates, as well as more below.

CandidatePresidential Election OddsImplied %
Joe Biden-10451%
Donald Trump+11746%
Robert Kennedy Jr.+19005%
Gavin Newsom+19005%
Kamala Harris+32333%
Nikki Haley+99001%
Pete Buttigieg +99001%
Ron DeSantis+99001%

Republican and Democrat 2024 odds

BetMGM Canada also allows bettors to wager on the winning party for 2024. Here are the current election odds for each major party.

  • Democrats: (-120)
  • Republicans: (-110)
  • Independent: (+2000)

FREE Politics Pick’em Contest! Make your picks in our elections game and compete for $25 in prizes.

Current political landscape

Donald Trump and Joe Biden look to be on a collision course in 2024, but plenty of issues with both candidates could shake things up in the coming months. Trump will be spending many days in court in the coming days and his eligibility to run could very well come into legal question. Meanwhile, Biden is now 81 years old and even said in 2020 that he would be a “bridge President” to the next Democratic leader. Democrat Gavin Newsom had a TV debate with Ron DeSantis this past fall, prompting many to believe the Democrats were giving Newsom a test run for 2024.

Robert Kennedy Jr. and DeSantis have fallen on 2024 Presidential odds boards in the past few months. During the late summer months, RFK Jr. had the third shortest odds, behind Biden and Trump. DeSantis, meanwhile, had been the overall betting favorite at times during the first half of this year but has officially suspended his campaign. Here is a deeper dive into some of the top Presidential candidates:

Biden remains the Democratic nominee despite struggling in polls. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.

That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Before 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:

  • Donald Trump, 2017-2021
  • George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
  • Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
  • Gerald Ford, 1974-77
  • Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
  • William Howard Taft, 1909-13
  • Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
  • Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
  • John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
  • John Adams, 1797-1801

Will Trump run in 2024?

As for Trump, he remains among the favorites and is currently running in the 2024 presidential election.

The first deciding events in an election year are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which took place in January and February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can greatly impact the odds. Trump won both events in a landslide for Republicans.

After these two events, most of Trump’s main challengers suspended their presidential campaigns. Ramaswamy and DeSantis ended their campaigns in January, with Haley ending hers in March.

Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?

Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.

Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.

In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to push 83 when his potential second term would end.

Election betting explained

Books often refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they settle the bets months or years into the future.

The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.

Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.

That means if you put $100 down at the first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.

What to monitor: polling data

Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election. In the early stages, candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why in 2020, on the Democratic side, former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.

As lower-tier candidates with difficulty fundraising drop out of the race and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.

For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:

Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders

Democrats

In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books initially felt that the Democrats would break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Gavin Newsom is the current favorite to lead the Dems if Biden doesn’t run.

Republicans

While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at sportsbooks right now, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is the next top contender. After that, the field contains Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis.

2024 Presidential betting tips

Regarding presidential elections, the candidates who most ideologically represent the opposite end of the spectrum often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as possible.

That’s usually following a two-term president, however.

Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator of which candidates to back at the books.

Can you bet On The Election in the US?

You cannot legally bet on elections using regulated online sportsbooks in the US. Election odds are only a regulated market at Ontario online sportsbooks.