2024 Presidential Election Odds

Who will be the next US President?

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The latest 2024 presidential election odds show former President Donald Trump as the favorite over current President Joe Biden and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris had been the favorite to win in 2024 throughout most of last year but Trump rose to the top of odds boards by November of 2021. Biden reportedly told former President Barack Obama in April 2022 that he will run for re-election in 2024, making it more unlikely that Harris receives the Democratic nomination. Check out the latest odds for next United States President below.

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Presidential election odds 2024 (May 20)

Here’s a look at the current US Presidential Election odds from PredictIt and a top UK book. Select PredictIt markets, like “Will a female be elected President in 2024?” are also listed – click to predict it.

CandidatePredictIt Price or MarketEquivalent OddsBet365 Odds
Donald Trump$0.28 - Bet NOW+257+300
Ron DeSantis$0.23 - Bet NOW+335+500
Joe Biden$0.22 - Bet NOW+355+500
Kamala Harris$0.09 - Bet NOW+1011 +1000
Pete Buttigieg$0.06 - Bet NOW+1567+2500
Mike PencePence files for President before 2023?N/A+1600
Nikki HaleyFemale President in 2024?N/A+2000
Michelle ObamaFemale President in 2024?N/A+2500
Elizabeth WarrenDem 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+3300
Elise StefanikFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Hillary ClintonFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Mike PompeoGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
AOCAOC files for President before 2024?N/A+5000
Dwayne JohnsonN/AN/A+5000
Candace OwensFemale President in 2024?N/A+5000
Ivanka TrumpGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Tucker CarlsonGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Jeff BezosN/AN/A+6000
Ted CruzGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+6600

More Political Odds And Betting Coverage

TheLines has plenty more politics odds and legal betting coverage for the 2022 midterm elections from writer Evan Scrimshaw.

Bet on Republican nominee

Donald Trump is the Republican nominee favorite at PredictIt with a “Yes” price of 38 cents. That is the equivalent of +163 odds. Click on the odds below to make a wager on the candidate you believe will win.

NomineePredictIt PriceEquivalent Odds
Donald Trump$0.38+163
Ron DeSantis$0.30+233
Nikki Haley$0.07+1329
Mike Pence$0.05+1900
Mitt Romney$0.04+2400
Tim Scott$0.04+2400
Mike Pompeo$0.03+3233
Ted Cruz$0.03+3233
Kristi Noem$0.03+3233
Marco Rubio$0.02+4900
Josh Hawley$0.02+4900
Donald Trump Jr.$0.01+9900
Tucker Carlson$0.01+9900

Bet on Democratic nominee

Biden is the favorite to be the Democratic nominee at PredictIt with a latest “Yes” price of 38 cents. That is the equivalent of +163 odds. Click on the odds below to make a wager on the candidate you believe will win.

NomineePredictIt PriceEquivalent Odds
Joe Biden$0.38+163
Kamala Harris$0.18+456
Pete Buttigieg$0.14+614
Hillary Clinton$0.06+1567
Bernie Sanders$0.04+2400
AOC$0.04+2400
Elizabeth Warren$0.03+3233
Stacey Abrams$0.03+3233
Sherrod Brown$0.02+4900

Current political landscape

Biden’s approval rating for his fifth quarter as President was extremely low as he was at 41.3%, according to Gallup data. With sky-high gas prices and the tensions with Russia, Biden is far from the most popular Commander In Chief of all-time at the moment.

Rising on 2024 US President odds boards recently has been Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who held the same odds as Biden himself on April 28 of this year.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE POLITICAL BETTING GUIDES AND ODDS

Biden remains the likely Democratic nominee despite struggling in polls. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.

That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:

  • Donald Trump, 2017-2021
  • George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
  • Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
  • Gerald Ford, 1974-77
  • Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
  • William Howard Taft, 1909-13
  • Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
  • Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
  • John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
  • John Adams, 1797-1801

As for Trump, he remains the favorite at +300. There are plenty of long shots on the board this time around given the current political climate. The US elected Trump, who had no previous political experience, in 2016. Simply being a celebrity with a sizable following seems to be enough these days. It’s why names like Dwayne Johnson, Tucker Carlson and Dave Portnoy have been on the board for months.

The first deciding events in an election year are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.

By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.

Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?

Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.

Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.

In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.

By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.

UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.

Election betting explained

Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.

The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.

Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.

That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.

What to monitor: polling data

Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.

As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.

For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:

Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders

Democrats

In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Republicans

While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former VP Mike Pence and Trump’s daughter, Ivanka.

2024 Presidential betting tips

In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.

That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.

Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.

Can you bet in the US?

You cannot legally bet on US elections using traditional sportsbooks but PredictIt allows users to trade shares – much like the stock market – on the outcomes of elections and events.

PredictIt has dozens of markets in which you can try and predict the outcome of a political race or event. The way it works is that you buy shares for or against an event taking place. You can then trade your shares, with the goal of buying your shares low and then selling them high.

One example of a PredictIt market is “Will Donald Trump file to run for President before the end of 2022?”

On June 25, the closing price on “Yes” for Trump to file to run for President before the end of 2022 was 38 cents. On June 27 it was 41 cents and on July 1 it was at 37 cents.

It’s up to you to decide whether to cash in or hang on until the market closes.

If you sign up for PredictIt here, you will get $50 free when you deposit $50.