Kentucky Derby Odds History: How Often Do Favorites Win?
Early Kentucky Derby odds have begun trickling out as the field comes into shape. A couple of early favorites have emerged in Fierceness and Sierra Leone. But where do they fit into the all-time Kentucky Derby favorites? How often do favorites even win?
Let’s dive into the numbers and recent history.
Kentucky Derby Favorites Since 2000
| Year | ML Favorite | Morning Line Odds | Finish | Post-Time Favorite | Final Odds | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tapit Trice* | 5/1 | 7th | Angel of Empire | 4/1 | 3rd |
| 2022 | Zandon* | 3/1 | 3rd | Epicenter | 4/1 | 2nd |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 2/1 | 3rd | Essential Quality | 3/1 | 3rd |
| 2020 | Tiz the Law | 3/5 | 2nd | Tiz the Law | 3/5 | 2nd |
| 2019 | Omaha Beach^ | 4/1 | SCR | Improbable | 4/1 | 4th |
| 2018 | Justify | 3/1 | 1st | Justify | 3/1 | 1st |
| 2017 | Classic Empire* | 9/2 | 1st | Always Dreaming | 9/2 | 1st |
| 2016 | Nyquist | 3/1 | 1st | Nyquist | 5/2 | 1st |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 5/2 | 1st | American Pharoah | 3/1 | 1st |
| 2014 | California Chrome | 5/2 | 1st | California Chrome | 5/2 | 1st |
| 2013 | Orb | 7/2 | 1st | Orb | 11/2 | 1st |
| 2012 | Bodemeister | 4/1 | 2nd | Bodemeister | 4/1 | 2nd |
| START | OF | ROAD TO | KENTUCKY | DERBY | POINTS | ERA |
| 2011 | Dailed In | 4/1 | 8th | Dailed In | 5.2/1 | 8th |
| 2010 | Lookin At Lucky | 3/1 | 6th | Lookin At Lucky | 6.3/1 | |
| 2009 | I Want Revenge^ | 3/1 | SCR | Friesan Fire | 3.8/1 | 18th |
| 2008 | Big Brown | 3/1 | 1st | Big Brown | 5/2 | 1st |
| 2007 | Curlin* | 7/2 | 3rd | Street Sense | 5/1 | 1st |
| 2006 | Brother Derek* | 3/1 | t-4th | Sweetnorthernsaint | 11/2 | 7th |
| 2005 | Bellamy Road | 5/2 | 7th | Bellamy Road | 5/2 | 7th |
| 2004 | The Cliff’s Edge* | 4/1 | 5th | Smarty Jones | 4/1 | 1st |
| 2003 | Empire Maker | 6/5 | 2nd | Empire Maker | 5/2 | 2nd |
| 2002 | Harlan’s Holiday | 9/2 | 7th | Harlan’s Holiday | 6/1 | 7th |
| 2001 | Point Given | 9/5 | 5th | Point Given | 4/5 | 5th |
| 2000 | Fusaichi Pegasus | 9/5 | 1st | Fusaichi Pegasus | 5/2 | 1st |
*Horse did not close as favorite at post time in final odds
^Scratched from the Kentucky Derby after being named morning line favorite. In 2019, Game Winner (9-2) was the revised Morning Line favorite.
How Often Do Kentucky Derby Favorites Win?
Turns out, maybe not as often as you’d think. Since 2000, just 30.4% of Morning Line odds favorites (7 of 23) won the Kentucky Derby. Those who did not open as the Morning Line odds favorite but closed as the favorite had better success, winning in three of six instances since 2000 (50%). In total, closing favorites won 43.5% of races since 2000 (10 of 22).
A major change to the Kentucky Derby may have changed the frequency. In 2012, the Derby implemented a new points system, limiting the number of outlier horses and increasing the overall strength of each field. Since 2012, five morning line odds favorites (50%) and six closing favorites (60%) won the Derby. However, no favorites have won any of the last five races.
While the numbers look bleak, betting favorites in the Kentucky Derby is still a +EV play, in general. Given that only one horse closed less than 2-1 since 2000 (33.3% implied win rate), favorites are generally out-performing their odds year over year.
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Shortest Kentucky Derby Favorites Ever
Dating back to 1908.
| Year | Horse | Final Odds | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | Citation | 2/5 | 1st |
| 1943 | Count Fleet | 2/5 | 1st |
| 1940 | Bimelech | 2/5 | 2nd |
| 1976 | Honest Pleasure | 2/5 | 2nd |
| 1977 | Seattle Slew | 1/2 | 1st |
| 1979 | Spectacular Bid | 3/5 | 1st |
| 1939 | Johnstown | 3/5 | 1st |
| 1953 | Native Dancer | 9/13 | 2nd |
| 2020 | Tiz The Law | 9/13 | 2nd |
| 1912 | Worth | 4/5 | 1st |
| 1936 | Brevity | 4/5 | 2nd |
| 1949 | Olympia | 4/5 | 6th |
| 1989 | Easy Goer | 4/5 | 2nd |
Four horses have the rightful title of shortest favorites ever, all of which clock in at 2-5. The most modern of those horses is Honest Pleasure in 1976, who would be succeeded by another large favorite, Seattle Slew (1977). Honest Pleasure was upset in the 1976 derby by Bold Forbes, who would also go on to win the Belmont Stakes. Bimelech (1940) also would come in second, losing out to Gallahadion.
Other short favorites to lose their race include Tiz the Law (2020), Native Dancer (1953), Brevity (1936), Olympia (1949), and Easy Goer (1989). Over half of the 13 shortest favorites in Kentucky Derby history went on to lose their respective race.
Count Fleet (1943), Citation (1948), and Seattle Slew (1977) would go on to capture the Triple Crown.
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Where Does Fierceness Fit In All-Time Favorites?
With an early line of 3-1, Fierceness does not look on track to rank among the strongest Kentucky Derby favorites.
Typically, the Derby favorite has closed around 4-1 in recent years, so if Fierceness holds at 3-1 he’d be one of the stronger recent favorites. However, horses like Tiz The Law, Nyquist and California Chrome all closed with shorter odds.
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