Kentucky Derby Odds History: How Often Do Favorites Win?

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Written By Road to CFB | Last Updated
Kentucky Derby favorites

Early Kentucky Derby odds have begun trickling out as the field comes into shape. A couple of early favorites have emerged in Fierceness and Sierra Leone. But where do they fit into the all-time Kentucky Derby favorites? How often do favorites even win?

Let’s dive into the numbers and recent history.

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Kentucky Derby Favorites Since 2000

YearML FavoriteMorning Line OddsFinishPost-Time FavoriteFinal OddsFinish
2023Tapit Trice*5/17thAngel of Empire4/13rd
2022Zandon*3/13rdEpicenter4/12nd
2021Essential Quality2/13rdEssential Quality3/13rd
2020Tiz the Law3/52ndTiz the Law3/52nd
2019Omaha Beach^4/1SCRImprobable4/14th
2018Justify3/11stJustify3/11st
2017Classic Empire*9/21stAlways Dreaming9/21st
2016Nyquist3/11stNyquist5/21st
2015American Pharoah5/21stAmerican Pharoah3/11st
2014California Chrome5/21stCalifornia Chrome5/21st
2013Orb7/21stOrb11/21st
2012Bodemeister4/12ndBodemeister4/12nd
STARTOFROAD TOKENTUCKYDERBYPOINTSERA
2011Dailed In4/18thDailed In5.2/18th
2010Lookin At Lucky3/16thLookin At Lucky6.3/1
2009I Want Revenge^3/1SCRFriesan Fire3.8/118th
2008Big Brown3/11stBig Brown5/21st
2007Curlin*7/23rdStreet Sense5/11st
2006Brother Derek*3/1t-4thSweetnorthernsaint11/27th
2005Bellamy Road5/27thBellamy Road5/27th
2004The Cliff’s Edge*4/15thSmarty Jones4/11st
2003Empire Maker6/52ndEmpire Maker5/22nd
2002Harlan’s Holiday9/27thHarlan’s Holiday6/17th
2001Point Given9/55thPoint Given4/55th
2000Fusaichi Pegasus9/51stFusaichi Pegasus5/21st

*Horse did not close as favorite at post time in final odds
^Scratched from the Kentucky Derby after being named morning line favorite. In 2019, Game Winner (9-2) was the revised Morning Line favorite.

How Often Do Kentucky Derby Favorites Win?

Turns out, maybe not as often as you’d think. Since 2000, just 30.4% of Morning Line odds favorites (7 of 23) won the Kentucky Derby. Those who did not open as the Morning Line odds favorite but closed as the favorite had better success, winning in three of six instances since 2000 (50%). In total, closing favorites won 43.5% of races since 2000 (10 of 22).

A major change to the Kentucky Derby may have changed the frequency. In 2012, the Derby implemented a new points system, limiting the number of outlier horses and increasing the overall strength of each field. Since 2012, five morning line odds favorites (50%) and six closing favorites (60%) won the Derby. However, no favorites have won any of the last five races.

While the numbers look bleak, betting favorites in the Kentucky Derby is still a +EV play, in general. Given that only one horse closed less than 2-1 since 2000 (33.3% implied win rate), favorites are generally out-performing their odds year over year.

Shortest Kentucky Derby Favorites Ever

Dating back to 1908.

YearHorseFinal OddsFinish
1948Citation2/51st
1943Count Fleet2/51st
1940Bimelech2/52nd
1976Honest Pleasure2/52nd
1977Seattle Slew1/21st
1979Spectacular Bid3/51st
1939Johnstown3/51st
1953Native Dancer9/132nd
2020Tiz The Law9/132nd
1912Worth4/51st
1936Brevity4/52nd
1949Olympia4/56th
1989Easy Goer4/52nd

Four horses have the rightful title of shortest favorites ever, all of which clock in at 2-5. The most modern of those horses is Honest Pleasure in 1976, who would be succeeded by another large favorite, Seattle Slew (1977). Honest Pleasure was upset in the 1976 derby by Bold Forbes, who would also go on to win the Belmont Stakes. Bimelech (1940) also would come in second, losing out to Gallahadion.

Other short favorites to lose their race include Tiz the Law (2020), Native Dancer (1953), Brevity (1936), Olympia (1949), and Easy Goer (1989). Over half of the 13 shortest favorites in Kentucky Derby history went on to lose their respective race.

Count Fleet (1943), Citation (1948), and Seattle Slew (1977) would go on to capture the Triple Crown.

Where Does Fierceness Fit In All-Time Favorites?

With an early line of 3-1, Fierceness does not look on track to rank among the strongest Kentucky Derby favorites.

Typically, the Derby favorite has closed around 4-1 in recent years, so if Fierceness holds at 3-1 he’d be one of the stronger recent favorites. However, horses like Tiz The Law, Nyquist and California Chrome all closed with shorter odds.

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