UConn won the NCAA men’s National Championship on April 3 by downing San Diego State in the title game. Dan Hurley’s Huskies are among the favorites to win the college basketball title next year as well. UConn is to repeat as champion. Duke is also a favorite, coming in around +1000 at most books and Kentucky is around +1200.
View 2024 NCAA title odds for more college basketball teams below.
NCAA title odds
Here are NCAA title odds for 2024. Find next season college basketball National Championship futures below.
Next year college basketball odds
Here are next year college basketball favorites along with their odds to win the championship.
UConn odds +1000
The Huskies are firmly back in blue blood status as they not only entered the National Championship game against San Diego State atop 2024 college basketball odds boards, but also have a top 5 recruiting class. Jordan Hawkins, Adama Sanogo and Andre Jackson may all leave for the NBA but Dan Hurley has a great foundation in place. Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban are set to return for their sophomore seasons in Storrs.
Duke odds +1300
As with most Duke teams, despite having one of the youngest rosters in college basketball, the Blue Devils will have plenty of roster turnover. While big man Derek Lively had a disappointing freshman season, he is expected to be picked in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft. Freshman Kyle Filipowski is also expected to be drafted early despite an up-and-down season. Filipowski led Duke with 15.1 ppg and his combination of size and skills should fit well in the modern NBA. Fellow freshman Dariq Whitehead has already declared for the NBA Draft. Other top recruits at Duke that could use another year include Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor.
Kentucky odds +1500
The Kentucky Wildcats will look much different in 2023-2024 as multiple contributors are on the way out. Senior Forward Jacob Toppin has declared for the NBA Draft, while freshman guard Cason Wallace will also be playing in the NBA next season. Wallace led the team with 4.2 assists per game and could be a top-ten pick. Another Kentucky departure will be Sahvir Wheeler, a point guard who is entering the transfer portal. Senior Brennan Canada has said that he will return for a fifth season.
UCLA odds +2500
The UCLA Bruins basketball program has seen a return to glory with the backcourt combo of Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. Campbell has one remaining year of eligibility due to covid, while Jaquez, a potential first-round pick, has likely played his final season at UCLA. Campbell remains undecided but may return for one final season as he is projected by some to go undrafted. Regardless of Jaquez and Campbell, UCLA will see more turnover in the backcourt as defensive stalwart Jaylen Clark has declared for the draft, while David Singleton is out of eligibility. UCLA now awaits decisions from Amari Baily and Adem Bona.
North Carolina odds +3000
The Tar Heels’ standout junior Caleb Love is expected to declare for the NBA Draft after leading UNC with 16.7 ppg. Love is not a slam-dunk first-round pick so it’s possible but unlikely that he returns for his senior season. Senior Leaky Black, who led the team in steals with 1.3 per game, has played his final game at UNC and it’s questionable if any NBA team will take a chance on the offensively-challenged forward. Big man Armando Bacot surprised many by saying he will return for another season in Chapel Hill. Another big that UNC fans will say goodbye to is senior transfer Pete Nance who led the team with 1.1 blocks per game this season.
How March Madness odds are changing
Here is a look ahead at the 2024 March Madness odds. We will monitor changes over the course of the next year.
| School | College Basketball National Title Opening Odds April 3, 2023 |
|---|---|
| Duke | +1000 |
| Kentucky | +1200 |
| Kansas | +1500 |
| UConn | +1500 |
| Marquette | +1600 |
| Purdue | +1800 |
| Alabama | +2000 |
| North Carolina | +2000 |
| Michigan State | +2000 |
| Arizona | +2000 |
| Creighton | +2200 |
| Houston | +2200 |
| Texas | +2500 |
| USC | +2500 |
| UCLA | +2500 |
| Arkansas | +2500 |
| Gonzaga | +2500 |
| Baylor | +2800 |
| Tennessee | +2800 |
| Miami FL | +3000 |
| Michigan | +3500 |
| Villanova | +4000 |
| TCU | +4500 |
| Xavier | +4500 |
NCAA Tournament Odds
First Four
Dayton, Ohio (March 14 and 15)
West
Las Vegas (March 23 and 25)
South
Louisville (March 24 and 26)
East
New York City (March 23 and 25)
Midwest
Kansas City (March 23 and 25)
Final Four
Houston (April 1 and 3)
First round seed matchups, history
TheLines offers a look back at the history of all of the first round seed matchups and previews each of the 2023 matchups. Check them out here:
- 8 vs 9 seed history
- 7 vs 10 seed history
- 6 vs 11 seed history
- 5 vs 12 seed history
- 4 vs 13 seed history
- 3 vs 14 seed history
- 2 vs 15 seed history
- 1 vs 16 seed history
March Madness betting sites
How the NCAA Tournament works
March Madness is a 68-team, single-elimination tournament that annually crowns college basketball’s NCAA Division 1 men’s national champion.
The event is aptly named, considering it features a frenetic 67 games over a 19-day period. The participating schools are announced on “Selection Sunday”, along with the exact seeding and brackets.
The annual college basketball rite of spring is sports betting’s most prolific multi-day event. Below you’ll find the current betting odds for the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, along with key tournament details and betting strategy to help you during the month-long madness.
The first 32 teams to gain entry into the tournament do so automatically by winning their conferences. The remaining 36 slots are filled by “at-large” teams. A 10-member selection committee consisting of athletic directors and conference commissioners undergoes an arduous and multi-layered process to determine the 36 at-large teams and subsequently finalize seeding and brackets.
The committee will again employ the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as its primary sorting method for determining at-large entrants. The NET replaces the RPI (Rating Percentage Index), which had been utilized since 1981.
The NET takes into account the following metrics:
- Game results
- Strength of schedule
- Game location
- Scoring margin
- Offensive and defensive efficiency
- Quality of wins and losses
The NCAA has a detailed, step-by-step breakdown of seeding and bracket protocol on this page within its website.
March Madness betting history
The first NCAA basketball tournament took place in 1939 in Evanston, Illinois. Since then, 37 teams have won it all and five teams have won the tournament at least five times (Indiana, Duke, UNC, Kentucky, UCLA). Since seeding began in 1979, number 1 seeds have won the tournament 25 times and have accounted for almost 49% of all championship appearances. Just three times has a team seeded lower than four won the title, and no team seeded below eighth has won, nor made a championship appearance.
Since betting lines were released for NCAA tournament games in 1985, underdogs in March Madness odds have covered 44% of the time, winning outright 29% of the time. Games have gone under the total in 56% of games. Since 2010, games have gone under the total in 70% of games and favorites have covered in seven out of ten games. Three teams have won more than one championship since 2010 (Duke, UConn, Villanova), but none have won back-to-back titles (despite Butler & UNC appearing in back-to-back title games).
Since 2000, the top overall seed has made the championship game just four times but won the game three of those times (75%). In total, top overall seeds in the tournament have comprised of just 8% of the total Final Four teams (missed 13 out of 20 years). Besides 1-seeds, 2-seeds have the most championship appearances since 2000 (7 times), followed by 3-seeds (6 times), and 5- and 8-seeds (2).
Just eight percent (52/640) of all Sweet 16 teams have been seeded 11 or lower, and only 2.8% of teams in the Elite Eight were seeded 11 or lower. Four 11 seeds advanced to the Final Four (Loyola Chicago, 2018; VCU, 2011; George Mason, 2006; LSU, 1986). UMBC is the only 16-seed to upset a 1-seed in the tournament’s history (2018), and just eight 15-seeds have prevailed (5%). In 2015, two 15-seeds upset 2-seeds (25% of all such upsets) and two 14-seeds upset 3-seeds.
Using historical data when filling out brackets and betting March Madness, err caution; stats should be used in the long-run but when choosing individual games, be sure to study matchup statistics. The most important thing to remember, though, is this is March Madness, and anything can (and will) happen.
Tournament betting strategies
The historical ATS data for each team in tournament play is just one of countless data points that can constitute March Madness odds betting research. Other factors that can hold considerable relevance include:
- A team’s late-season performances, including in their conference tournament
- Key injuries
- A team’s defensive proficiency, as this typically has more carryover into tournament play than a high-powered offense
- “Fading the public” when the line appears to be significantly affected by a team’s popularity, as opposed to actual recent performance
Examining various tournament-specific historical trends, such as how high-seeded mid-majors have done in each round in terms of straight-up wins and losses.
Another overarching data set that could prove highly valuable is the performance of each seed in each round versus the spread.
Where can I bet on March Madness?
Bettors physically located within the following states will be able to place a legal sports wager on March Madness games:
| State | Online Sports Betting? | Retail Sports Betting? |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Yes | Yes |
| Arkansas | Yes | Yes |
| Colorado | Yes | Yes |
| Connecticut | Yes | Yes |
| Delaware | No | Yes |
| Illinois | Yes | Yes |
| Indiana | Yes | Yes |
| Iowa | Yes | Yes |
| Kansas | Yes | Yes |
| Louisiana | Yes | Yes |
| Maryland | Yes | Yes |
| Massachusetts | Yes | Yes |
| Michigan | Yes | Yes |
| Mississippi | No | Yes |
| Montana | No | Yes |
| Nevada | Yes | Yes |
| New Hampshire | Yes | Yes |
| New Jersey | Yes | Yes |
| New Mexico | No | Yes |
| New York | Yes | Yes |
| Ohio | Yes | Yes |
| Oregon | Yes | Yes |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | Yes |
| Rhode Island | Yes | Yes |
| South Dakota | No | Yes |
| Tennessee | Yes | No |
| Virginia | Yes | Yes |
| Washington, D.C. | Yes | Yes |
| West Virginia | Yes | Yes |
| Wisconsin | No | Yes |
| Wyoming | Yes | No |
Online Massachusetts sports betting began in earnest on March 10, just in time for the start of the 2023 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.