Mavericks star Luka Doncic entered the season as the favorite to win the league’s most coveted individual prize, but – three months into the campaign – he no longer sits at the top of the Most Valuable Player boards. The latest odds to win NBA MVP reveal that Warriors guard Steph Curry and Nets forward Kevin Durant are now the favorites at most books. Doncic comes in around +8000 depending on where you look.
NBA MVP odds
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Pro basketball MVP futures report (January 14)
The Favorites
Steph Curry (): The Warriors have hit a slump without Draymond Green (calf) and with Klay Thompson working his way back into playing shape. Green’s obvious importance to Golden State’s early-season success hasn’t impacted Curry’s odds as much as it should, with the all-time great shooter averaging under 20 PPG and shooting under 29% from 3 in the month of January.
Kevin Durant (): Durant is averaging 31.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 6.4 APG with a 31.6% usage rate since the start of December and he finally earned some rest on the second leg of a back-to-back on Jan. 13. James Harden (+7000) is making his own case as an MVP candidate, though, and Kyrie Irving is playing road games now.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (): With Jrue Holiday (ankle) out, the Bucks have hit their own slump, but Giannis has done his best to step up without his PG with averages of 29.6 PPG and 6.7 APG with a 125.6 offensive rating in 10 appearances without Holiday.
Nikola Jokic (): Pick any advanced metric and Jokic is likely leading the league in that category. He’s also second in total RPG (14) with the highest defensive rebounding rate (38.1%) in basketball as he’s been forced to carry the shorthanded Nuggets on both ends.
The Contenders
DeMar DeRozan (): In a couple of months, DeRozan has gone from an extreme value at +30000 to one of the main contenders for MVP, as the Bulls are vying with the Nets for the top seed in the East. DeRozan’s individual output has tailed off a bit, however, with averages of 22.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 5.3 APG over seven games in January.
Ja Morant ():: The Grizzlies are the hottest team in basketball with an 11-game win streak that has been sparked by Morant’s incredible play-making ability. The third-year PG is averaging 26.2 PPG and 6.6 APG with a collective +137 plus/minus rating during a streak that includes wins over several title contenders.
Joel Embiid (): Embiid enters Friday’s matchup against the Celtics with 31-plus points in eight straight games, and averages of 32.5 PPG and 9.7 RPG on a monstrous 39.2% usage rate while leading the Sixers in an 8-2 stretch.
LeBron James (): LeBron has been carrying the Lakers to a .500 record with almost no help around him on the defensive end and Russell Westbrook mired in a slump that is sapping their crunch-time offense. James is averaging 34.2 PPG with a 129.3 offensive rating over his last 12 outings.
Luka Doncic (): After missing most of December due to an ankle injury and COVID protocols, Luka is averaging 20.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 10.4 APG on poor 37/23/80% shooting splits over five appearances this month, and his latest appearances was an ugly loss at the sputtering Knicks.
Chris Paul (): The Suns are a deep and balanced team that CP3 is once again leading to one of the top seeds in the tough Western Conference. His individual averages (14 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 10.1 APG) are relatively modest, but his leadership and intangibles are hard to compare. Paul’s backcourt-mate Devin Booker (+7000) is back in the race after missing some time with a hamstring injury.
James Harden (): Harden is averaging 25.7 PPG and 12.3 APG over his last three appearances and the Nets are utilizing his play-making ability more and more while trying to get Durant some rest. With Irving sitting out home games, Harden could sometimes be the lone star on the court for Brooklyn.
Jimmy Butler (): Miami has resumed its winning ways without Butler (ankle) or Bam Adebayo (UCL) in the lineup. Both stars should return soon and make an immediate impact during a playoff push.
Donovan Mitchell (): Mitchell is an excellent player with a 113.7 offensive rating on the season, but there is no denying that Rudy Gobert (+15,000) is more important to Utah’s success, as evidenced by their 4-game losing streak with the big man out due to a shoulder issue.
Trae Young (): Young is averaging 27.7 PPG and 9.4 APG but posting an individual defensive rating of 126.6 this month, as the Hawks can’t stop anyone and remain a few games out of the play-in tournament in the East.
Jayson Tatum (): Boston won’t necessarily find success this season from Tatum posting huge games, but rather from the 24-year-old showing leadership and co-existing with co-star Jaylen Brown.
How Most Valuable Player odds are changing
Here is what NBA MVP odds looked like on Opening Night of the season at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Luka Doncic +380
- Kevin Durant +600
- Joel Embiid +800
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +800
- Steph Curry +900
- Damian Lillard +1400
- Nikola Jokic +1500
- LeBron James +1800
- James Harden +2000
- Trae Young +2000
- Devin Booker +2500
- Anthony Davis +2500
- Russell Westbrook +2500
- Paul George +3000
Futures Betting on NBA MVP
The NBA MVP award is usually fairly easy to predict, but with the league currently loaded with super-duper-stars we saw a relative longshot win in 2021. Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic captured his first league MVP award, as he averaged 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. The Joker had the 12th lowest odds to win the award at FanDuel Sportsbook ahead of the season at +3600.
Luka Doncic had entered the 2020-21 NBA season as the favorite to win league MVP. LeBron James had a significant stretch in the middle of the season where he owned the lowest odds. But Jokic was superb from start-to-finish.
Betting on the MVP winner is one of the more popular options for outright bets known as “Futures,” which are usually wagers on a season-long outcome such as the NBA champion, NBA division winner, or individual award winners. It’s also possible to bet Over or Under on Team Win totals, i.e. the number of games a team is expected to win during the regular season.
Best NBA MVP betting site
Where you can bet on the MVP legally
Online sports betting is currently legal at a regulated sportsbook in the following states:
| State | Law Passed? | Launch Date | Mobile Launch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Sports Betting | Yes | September 2021 | September 2021 |
| Arkansas Sports Betting | Yes | July 2019 | NA |
| Colorado Sports Betting | Yes | May 2020 | May 2020 |
| Connecticut Sports Betting | Yes* | September 2021 | October 2021 |
| Delaware Sports Betting | Yes | June 2018 | Pending |
| Florida Sports Betting | Yes* | Pending | Pending |
| Illinois Sports Betting | Yes | March 2020 | August 2020 |
| Indiana Sports Betting | Yes | September 2019 | October 2019 |
| Iowa Sports Betting | Yes | August 2019 | August 2019 |
| Louisiana Sports Betting | Yes | October 2021 | Pending |
| Maryland Sports Betting | Yes | Pending | Pending |
| Michigan Sports Betting | Yes | March 2020 | January 2021 |
| Mississippi Sports Betting | Yes | August 2018 | September 2021 |
| Montana Sports Betting | Yes | March 2020 | March 2020 |
| Nevada Sports Betting | Yes | 1949 | 2010 |
| New Hampshire Sports Betting | Yes | August 2020 | December 2019 |
| New Jersey Sports Betting | Yes | June 2018 | August 2018 |
| New Mexico Sports Betting | No* | October 2018 | NA |
| New York Sports Betting | Yes | July 2019 | January 2022 |
| North Carolina Sports Betting | Yes | March 2021 | NA |
| Oregon Sports Betting | No* | August 2019 | October 2019 |
| Pennsylvania Sports Betting | Yes | November 2018 | May 2019 |
| Rhode Island Sports Betting | Yes | November 2018 | September 2019 |
| South Dakota Sports Betting | Yes | September 2021 | NA |
| Tennessee Sports Betting | Yes | November 2020 | November 2020 |
| Virginia Sports Betting | Yes | January 2021 | January 2021 |
| Washington, D.C. Sports Betting | Yes | May 2020 | August 2020 |
| Washington Sports Betting | Yes | September 2021 | NA |
| West Virginia Sports Betting | Yes | August 2018 | August 2019 |
| Wyoming Sports Betting | Yes | September 2021 | September 2021 |
Legislation is on the table in a number of states with more states sure to legalize sports betting in the upcoming years.
Residents of Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia have access to online sportsbooks, including the platforms created by industry titans DraftKings and FanDuel. William Hill and other online books also offer great opportunities to bet on NBA games and Futures.
In order to bet on MVP, users can click on the NBA tab and find the tab labeled “Futures” and move to “Player Futures.” Regular Season MVP should be one of the categories along with Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and more postseason awards.
Previous winners and trends
As mentioned above, only two MVP winners in the “modern era” have come from teams that won 50 games or fewer. Additionally, since 1985 only two MVPs have come from teams that failed to finish at least second in their conference.
So the starting point for choosing a good bet is finding the best player on a winning team. It’s no coincidence that Jokic and Embiid were two of the favorites down the stretch of last season. The Nuggets were a top 4 seed in the West as were the Sixers in the East.
Remember that the MVP is a regular season award, so players that historically have come up short in the postseason like Jokic and Harden will always still have a seat at the MVP table.
That said, because the award is voted upon by sportswriters, a players’ body of work tends to put them over the top. Only four MVP winners were younger than 23 and the last rookie to win the MVP was Wes Unseld back in 1969.
Scoring is a key criteria for MVP, as the NBA’s leading scorer has won the award in four of the past five years.
While the Center position is fading in today’s small-ball NBA, that position leads the way in MVP awards with 26, although 22 of those came in the first 28 years of the award.
Over the last 14 years, guards have won the award eight times, signifying how the NBA has transitioned to a faster-paced, higher-scoring game. The past four guards to win (James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, and Derrick Rose) are not particularly renowned defenders. Posting gaudy offensive numbers can be enough to sway voters.
Shooting guards have won the fewest awards (eight) in the history of the MVP and Michael Jordan snagged five of those trophies.
Since the 1975-76 season, only two players have been named MVP in a season where their team failed to win 50 games. That includes Russell Westbrook in 2016-17, but it has become a rarity for a player from a mediocre team to win the award.
The Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is voted upon by a panel of 100 media members who are not affiliated with any NBA franchises. Each member of the panel casts a vote for first to fifth place selections. Each vote counts incrementally towards a players’ total, with first-place votes netting 10 points and fifth-place votes counting for only 1 point.
In the history of NBA MVP voting, only Curry (2015-16) has received every first-place vote from the entire panel to be named MVP unanimously. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won the award a record six times and LeBron has won four MVP awards, which makes him the leader among active players.