MLB Best Bets Today: Top Pitcher Props for Sept. 30
It’s the second day of the MLB postseason and that brings us to my top pitcher props for Wednesday, September 29. It’s Game 2 of the four best-of-three wild card series, which means four teams have their back to the wall.
There is baseball starting at 2 pm ET when the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves lock up in Atlanta. The Chicago White Sox take on the Houston Astros at 5 pm ET. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees continue the latest chapter of their rivalry at 8 pm ET. Finally, the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres meet for the second straight season in the playoffs with Game 2 starting at 10 pm ET.
Let’s take a look at our favorite pitcher props. If you’re looking for our favorite hitter props, well, we’ve got you covered there too.
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Pitching Prop #1: Tyler Mahle, Braves
We’ll start the column off about our top pitching props by looking at a pair of NL East rivals opening the postseason in Atlanta.
It was a rough start to the year for Mahle, who was with the Giants before being dealt to Atlanta at the trade deadline. He finished the year 7-10 with a 3.99 ERA, a 1.235 WHIP and 137 strikeouts over 149 innings of work on the year. However, after being traded to Atlanta, he was 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA, nine walks and 48 strikeouts over 54.1 innings of work in eight starts.
Mahle went at least six innings in 10of his last 12 starts entering this contest. Meanwhile, one of the other two starts saw him go 5.2 frames. That included 13 innings where he allowed three runs (one earned) in back-to-back starts against the Phillies in September.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia was 19th in the majors in runs per game this season with 4.40 per contest. The Phillies dropped to just 27th in runs per game on the road with 4.05 per contest. As such, I don’t have much optimism in them doing much damage against a rejuvenated Mahle. Take the Over on his outs prop for this contest at DraftKings.
Best Bet: Tyler Mahle Over 14.5 Outs Recorded Fanatics, -140
Pitching Prop #2: Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies
For our second pitching prop of the day, we’re going to stick with the same matchup, only with the opposite starter.
Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for the Phillies in this contest. He finished the year 18-7 with a 2.51 ERA, a 1.203 WHIP, 45 walks and 231 punchouts over 207 innings of work. That left him tied with Sonny Gray for the most wins in the majors. In addition, he finished fifth in the majors in strikeouts.
Atlanta hitters have hit .297 (41-for-138) against Sanchez in his career. Meanwhile, he has 38 strikeouts (27.5%) in those at-bats. Sanchez is in the 95th percentile in chase rate (36.3%), the 89th percentile in whiff rate (31.3%) and the 81st percentile in strikeout rate (27%) on the year.
He recorded 13 strikeouts over 12 innings of work in two starts against the Braves this season. Look for him to go Over his strikeout prop.
Best Bet: Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -108
Pitching Prop #3: Sonny Gray, Red Sox
We go to the Bronx for a wild card matchup of AL East foes between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.
Sonny Gray had a resurgence for the Red Sox this season at age 36. He finished the year 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, a 1.148 WHIP, 46 walks and 49 strikeouts over 169 innings of work in 29 starts. Gray made two starts against the Yankees this season. He was 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA, three walks and 12 strikeouts over 13.2 innings.
Gray pitches well against the Yankees. Current New York hitters own a .230 average (37-for-161) against him with 42 strikeouts. In addition, Gray is a good ground ball pitcher, ranking in the 73rd percentile (46.4%) this year. He also ranks in the 77th percentile in chase percentage (33.2%) on the year.
Gray does his part for the Red Sox in this contest. Look for him to go over his outs recorded prop.
Best Bet: Sonny Gray Over 14.5 Outs Recorded Fanatics, -150
Pitching Prop #4: Hunter Brown, Astros
We’ll finish our look at pitcher props by going to the Lone Star State for a matchup between the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros.
Hunter Brown is in line to get the ball for Houston here in Game 2. He finished the regular season 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA, a 1.267 WHIP, 55 walks and 124 strikeouts over 107.1 innings of work in 20 starts.
Brown stifled current White Sox hitters in his career. They own a collective .205 average (16-for-78) against him with 23 strikeouts. Brown is in the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate (27.5%) despite ranking in the 17th percentile in chase rate (27.5%) this season.
Meanwhile, Brown avoids major contact from opposing hitters. He ranks in the 94th percentile for average exit velocity (86.2 mph), the 77th percentile for barrel rate allowed (6%) and the 97th percentile for ground ball rate (57.1%) this season. Brown gets the White Sox to beat the ball into the ground and go over his outs prop in this contest.
Best Bet: Hunter Brown Over 14.5 Outs Recorded Hard Rock, -160
Before placing a Wednesday pitcher prop, compare pricing across the leading sports betting apps and the best MLB betting sites. Pitching props, especially strikeout ones, are volatile by nature, and price-shopping matters even more when you are betting plus-money markets.
Good luck with all of your bets!
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