MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 30
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Sept. 30! The MLB postseason is underway, and Wednesday’s Wild Card games bring even less room for error than the regular season. The weather is cooler, the pitching is better, and managers will turn to high-leverage bullpen arms at the first sign of trouble.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these MLB playoff picks and player props. Let’s get into it.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 30)
Fernando Tatis Jr. remains my favorite long-ball target, while two pitching props are catching my eye.
Before locking in your card, check confirmed starters, lineups, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction Today: Fernando Tatis Jr., +349
Fernando Tatis Jr. is my favorite home run look for Wednesday’s Wild Card slate.
The Padres host the Cubs at Petco Park in Game 2 of their NL Wild Card series, with first pitch scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. San Diego’s dynamic leadoff hitter is coming off a home run in Game 1 and remains absolutely scorching hot at the plate.
Tatis closed the regular season with a slugging percentage north of .650 in September. That is a ridiculous number, and it is the kind of month that makes me willing to consider a home run prop even when the postseason conditions are working against us.
The Cubs' pitching has been terrible down the stretch, and I'm not sure it matters who's on the mound on Wednesday. In my opinion, it'll be the best home run matchup on the board by default, given the high-end talent the other clubs on the slate are deploying.
This isn't a huge play. It is a small wager on a superstar in elite form.
Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +349
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170,000 GC + 7 SC MLB Player Prop Pick: Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Strikeouts, -155
Houston needs Brown to deliver in Game 2 against the White Sox after dropping the opener of its AL Wild Card series. The Astros’ bullpen game did not go as planned Tuesday, which means Brown has a clear path to a more traditional starter’s workload if he's pitching well.
Brown has been dominant down the stretch, allowing no more than two earned runs in seven of his last eight appearances.
The White Sox can certainly hit. Colson Montgomery homered in Game 1, and Chicago has several hitters who can make a game change quickly. However, there are serious strikeout holes in this projected lineup.
Montgomery owns a 38% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Kyle Teel carries a 35% strikeout rate against righties, while Munetaka Murakami also sits at 35%. That is roughly a third of the projected order with massive swing-and-miss concerns against a starter whose stuff is more than good enough to exploit them.
Brown ranks in the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate and has an above-average whiff rate. His chase rate is not particularly strong, but it was very good in 2025, which suggests there may be room for some positive regression to come into play.
At -155, this is admittedly juiced, but the circumstances and underlying data are both fantastic.
Best Bet: Hunter Brown Over 5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -155
MLB Prediction: Max Fried Under 16.5 Pitching Outs, +102
My final prop takes us to Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees host the Red Sox in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card series, with Max Fried scheduled to start for New York. The number is 16.5 pitching outs, meaning Fried needs to complete at least 5 2/3 innings for the over to cash.
I prefer the under at plus money.
Fried is still an excellent pitcher. He posted a 5-5 record with a 2.80 ERA across 112 2/3 innings during the regular season, and New York has every reason to trust him in a big spot. But this is October, and Aaron Boone does not need to manage this game like it is May.
The Yankees barely used their top relievers in Game 1. That gives Boone a long list of fresh, high-leverage options if Fried gets into even a little trouble. New York has Boston on the ropes, and protecting a lead is more important than letting Fried chase a quality start.
Boston’s September offense was rough, ranking toward the bottom of the league in pretty much every run-scoring metric. Still, the Red Sox have hitters such as Adley Rutschman and Jarren Duran who can fight off pitches, extend at-bats, and drive up a pitch count without necessarily creating a huge inning.
Fried can pitch well, hold Boston to limited damage, and still leave after five innings if his pitch count rises into the 90s. A walk, a long at-bat, or one traffic-heavy inning could be enough for Boone to make the call, especially if there is a powerful righty at the plate.
This is a narrow edge, but that is what we are looking for in the postseason. The market expects Fried to get at least 17 outs. However, at +102, I'm willing to bet that New York’s urgency and bullpen depth keep him from reaching that number.
Best Bet: Max Fried Under 16.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, +102
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses 170,000 GC + 7 SC Where To Bet MLB Props
Before betting Wednesday’s props, compare available prices at the top MLB betting sites. The postseason is a time when even a small price difference in home run markets or pitcher props matters the most.
You can also review the best sports betting apps for alternate props, live betting, and potential odds boosts.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB props today!
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