Time for a quick break from standard stroke play as the PGA TOUR heads down to TPC Louisiana. The 2023 Zurich Classic is next on tap, and we’ll attempt to navigate this two-man-teams event with all the info, trends, and stats you need to know about this nuanced tournament. It has become a bit polarizing, as golf fans either hate the change of pace and choose to skip watching and/or betting it, or they enjoy seeing some of the game’s best pair up in a refreshing new format. I fall in the latter camp.
I really like this event and it’s continued to attract some very competitive fields over its short history. The winning duo each receives $1.5M, 400 FedEx Cup points, and invites to the upcoming PGA Championship, Sentry Tournament of Champions, and THE PLAYERS Championship. Therefore, it will hold every competitor’s full attention. It’s also a great opportunity to find an edge in the golf betting market and in DFS with many not knowing exactly how to approach research or handicapping Zurich Classic odds. That is (hopefully) where we step in!
ZURICH CLASSIC ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Find golfers priced lower than 20-1 below when odds release Monday. As of 11 a.m. ET Monday morning, most sportsbooks have not opened outrights. Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds and to compare prices across legal U.S. sportsbooks in your state.
| Players | PointsBet | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele / Patrick Cantlay | +330 | +400 | +350 |
| Collin Morikawa / Max Homa | +750 | +850 | +700 |
| Sungjae Im / Keith Mitchell | +1600 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Si Woo Kim / Tom Kim | +1800 | +1600 | +1400 |
| Sam Burns / Billy Horschel | +2200 | +1800 | +1100 |
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
There are 160 players in the field this week, which technically makes this the largest field of the PGA TOUR season. With that said, the field will be grouped into 80 teams of two, with the top 33 players and ties advancing through the cut.
After having the Masters and the RBC Heritage designated events in successive weeks, this quirky team play set up serves as a natural bye week for elite players like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, and Viktor Hovland. Even still, the field features four of the OWGR top-10 players, highlighted by the defending champion duo of Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.
In addition, other marquee pairings at the top of the projected Zurich Classic odds board include Max Homa & Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns & Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im & Keith Mitchell, and Tom Kim & Si Woo Kim. There is, however, a notable gap after the top-5 teams this week. Bettors may want to structure their exposure to at least one of these groups.
Beyond the defending champions of Schauffele & Cantlay, Ryan Palmer, Billy Horschel, Jonas Blixt, Nick Watney, and Scott Piercy are past Team Stroke Play winners of this event, who are back in the field with new partners this year. Palmer & Piercy are looking to channel prior Course History by joining forces together for the first time. Brian Stuard, Jason Dufner, and Seung-Yul Noh also return to TPC Louisiana as past winners of the Zurich Classic when it was an individual stroke play tournament until 2017.
TEAM STROKE PLAY FORMAT & FIELD OVERVIEW
- Thursday: Four-Ball (Best Ball)
- Friday: Foursomes (Alternate Shot)
- CUT: Top 33 & Ties Advance
- Saturday: Four-Ball (Best Ball)
- Sunday: Foursomes (Alternate Shot)
Here is the official explanation from the Zurich Classic website of how the format is broken down:
For Four-Ball play, the players on each team will each play his own ball throughout the entirety of the round, with the best score on each hole recorded. Example: On the first hole, both golfers on each team tee off. Player A pars the hole and Player B birdies it. The team will be credited with a birdie.
For Foursomes play, players will rotate tee shots. One player will hit the tee shots on all the odd-numbered holes, and the other will hit the tee shot on even-numbered holes. Example: Player A and Player B are partners. On the first hole, Player A tees off; Player B plays the second shot; Player A plays the third shot; and so on until the ball is holed. The total strokes taken will result in the team’s score for that hole.
Last year, Team Cantlay & Schauffele won with a final score of -29. They shot -25 across their two rounds of Four-Ball (combining for rounds of 59 and 60) and just -4 across their two rounds of foursomes. With that in mind, it will be especially important to bet teams in the Zurich Classic with birdie-making upside, as you’ll need to create separation on Thursday and Saturday to stay in contention.
INTRODUCTION TO TPC LOUISIANA
TPC Louisiana is a 7,400 yard Par-72, Pete Dye-designed course which rests in Avondale, Louisiana. If TPC courses share an identity of fan friendly, templated scoring holes, and Pete Dye Courses share a tendency for positional angles off-the-tee and around-the-green emphasis, this course definitely leans more towards the former. There are persistent bunkers and some fun, random hazards like trees in the center of the fairway that have Dye’s hands all over them. But, there are plenty of scoring opportunities on this course.
Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of players both individually and in team play find success here despite not being strong off the tee. I would view this as a glorified second-shot course which emphasizes strong approach play to avoid greenside water and bunkers.
In terms of history, the Zurich Classic had been a standard Individual Stroke Play event from 1938 through 2016. Stuard won the 2016 Zurich Classic, and if Stuard wins an event, it needs to be gutted and reinvented completely to protect the TOUR’s integrity. He has not won a TOUR event since.
For TPC Louisiana course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Zurich Classic winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Zurich Classic odds page.
Editor’s Note
EVENT HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
Since 2017, the Zurich Classic has been contested as a team event. Nine individuals have multiple T10 finishes over that span: Billy Horschel, Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman, Nick Watney, Jason Dufner, Patrick Cantlay, David Hearn, Sam Burns, and Scott Brown. Horschel and Palmer are the only players in this year’s field with three career top-10 finishes in the team play format since 2017.
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel was a winner of this event in 2018 with Scott Piercy and also won individually at the 2013 Zurich Classic. Horschel has played alongside his current partner Sam Burns each of the last two years, contending each time with finishes of T4 and second. He hasn’t finished worse than T14 since 2018 and, although the current form is shaky, he’s always a consideration at the Zurich Classic on the merit of course history alone.
Course Comps
This is definitely a subjective week to use the good old fashioned eye test over any hyper-analyzed stat modeling. If we want to reference some recent courses that reward a similar style of play, I like TPC Twin Cities, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Sawgrass, Austin CC, TPC Craig Ranch, and TPC Scottsdale as a collection of TPC-style and/or Pete Dye Courses that favor plus-distance and reward the best iron players that given week.
The 3M Open leaderboard continues to jump out from a correlation standpoint, as Cameron Champ, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Keith Mitchell, Brandt Snedeker, Pat Perez, Tony Finau, and Scott Piercy have all finished top 20 at both over the last two years.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER
- Recent Form (SG: TOT, SG: T2G)
- Birdies or Better Gained
- SG: T2G (>7,400 Yard Courses)
- P4: 450-500
- SG: P – Bermuda
- Comp Course History
This is definitely a week I’ll be ditching the advanced metrics and taking a subjective route instead. I’m mainly focused on comfortable pairings who are comprised of the players with the best total form (SG: TOT L36). I’m also looking for players who are aggressive enough to generate the most birdie opportunities (Birdies or Better Gained), as this will help teams create separation on the Four Ball days.
The top 10 teams in terms of average SG: TOT rankings are:
- Schauffele & Cantlay
- Morikawa & Homa
- Im & Mitchell
- Kim & Kim
- Theegala & Suh
- Taylor & Hadwin
- Kitayama & Montgomery
- Hall & Bhatia
- Clark & Hossler
- Dahmen & McCarthy
The top 10 teams in terms of Birdies or Better Gained are:
- Im & Mitchell
- Schauffele & Cantlay
- Morikawa & Homa
- Kitayama & Montgomery
- Hall & Bhatia
- Theegala & Suh
- Dahmen & McCarthy
- Clark & Hossler
- Taylor & Hadwin
- Riley & Hardy
With this being a team format, there is merit to the thought that you are only as strong as your weakest link, as you cannot excel in alternate shot on Friday and Sunday single handedly. With that in mind, the top 10 players who represent the second-best combination of SG: TOT + Birdie or Better Gained on their teams are: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Keith Mitchell, Justin Suh, Harry Hall, Joel Dahmen, Kurt Kitayama, Adam Hadwin, NIck Hardy, and Tom Kim.
Team Reschuffling
This is not your average week on the PGA TOUR schedule, which means standard strokes gained stats can go by the wayside in favor of more subjective metrics like team chemistry. While the list of individuals who have found success here does not favor one type of player in particular, there seems to be a stronger trend of duos who have played well before, repeating that success together. The following groups have played together multiple times at this event with at least one top-10 finish together:
- Cantlay & Schauffele
- Horschel & Burns
- Hoffman & Watney
- Ryder & Redman
Putting team camaraderie to the test, these groups have each had individual success, but will be playing the event as a team for the first time:
- Im & Mitchell
- Morikawa & Homa
- Clark & Hossler
- Palmer & Piercy
- Hoge & English
- Dufner & Chappell
A few other notable groups with initial success together once before includes Theegala & Suh, Lipsky & Rai, and Moore & NeSmith.
Correlated Stats
While I won’t be running a model this week, there is still historical Strokes Gained data available at TPC Louisiana from its individual stroke play days. Based on the correlation charts below, below we can see Bogeys Avoided and SG: OTT are less important on this track than TOUR average. On the other hand, SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, and SG: Par 5 see the biggest boost in importance at TPC Louisiana.
TEAM SPOTLIGHT: DAVID LIPSKY & AARON RAI
Prior to Cantlay & Schauffele’s victory in 2022, three of the first four winners of the Zurich Classic under the new Team Stroke Play format had featured at least one international player. And yet, a look through the 2023 favorites – Cantlay & Schauffele, Homa & Morikawa, Burns & Horschel – shows all Americans. I choose to go a different route in 2023.
So bye-bye, these American guys
Those are very, very heavy
favorites, I can’t decide
Us good old boys are tipping Lipsky & Rai
Singing, “It’s a longshot but I’ll try”
It’s a longshot but I’ll try
Helter Skelter would be a suitable walk up song for Aaron Rai’s squad, as few others on TOUR can match his volatility round over round. He’s reached a share of the first round lead twice already in 2023 and when joining forces with David Lipsky at last year’s Zurich Classic, continued to pace the field with an opening round 61. They sustained that strong play for four days in their debut tournament together, culminating in a surprise T4 finish.
Familiar competitors overseas, Rai and Lipsky have combined for three European Tour wins since 2018. With so much reshuffling of teams year over year, it’s always encouraging to see when a duo opts to run it back together again. With developing team chemistry and improved year over year form, Lipsky & Rai seem like prime candidates to build off of their T4 finish yet again in 2023.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2023 ZURICH CLASSIC
I’m not going to attempt to bucket these team pairings into projected pricing tiers this week, so in lieu of any short-listed player pools, I’ve pulled together the below ranker chart to evaluate each team based on average trending form and birdie making ability entering this event. When odds are released, I’ll compare against these rankings to identify where the greatest value lies. At a glance, I would anticipate Kitayama & Montgomery, Hall & Bhatia, Spaun & Buckley, and Lipsky & Rai as being potential values on the betting board.
I won’t be running a model this week, with standard Stroke Play metrics not really translatable to the Team Stoke play rules.
With Zurich Classic odds open, I’m eyeing Theegala & Suh, Kim & Kim, Clark & Hossler, and Lipsky & Rai. It’s a good week to take a step back from the stat modeling and just enjoy a fun change of pace format, hoping for the best that we can get a Sunday sweat to look forward to.
I’ll be back Wednesday with my official betting card. Best of luck navigating 2023 Zurich Classic odds!
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COMPARE 2023 ZURICH CLASSIC ODDS
Check out odds for the 2023 Zurich Classic from the top US sportsbooks below when odds open this week. Click on odds anywhere in the table to bet on the PGA TOUR.
| Players | PointsBet | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele / Patrick Cantlay | +330 | +400 | +350 |
| Collin Morikawa / Max Homa | +750 | +850 | +700 |
| Sungjae Im / Keith Mitchell | +1600 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Si Woo Kim / Tom Kim | +1800 | +1600 | +1400 |
| Sam Burns / Billy Horschel | +2200 | +1800 | +1100 |
| Taylor Montgomery / Kurt Kitayama | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Justin Suh / Sahith Theegala | +2500 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick / Alex Fitzpatrick | +3000 | +2200 | +5000 |
| Beau Hossler / Wyndham Clark | +3300 | +2500 | +2800 |
| Victor Perez / Thomas Detry | +3300 | +2800 | +4500 |
| Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin | +3500 | +2800 | +3300 |
| Harris English / Tom Hoge | +3500 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Byeong Hun An / S.H. Kim | +3500 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Denny Mccarthy / Joel Dahmen | +3500 | +3500 | +4000 |
| J.J. Spaun / Hayden Buckley | +4000 | +3500 | +3300 |
| Matthew Nesmith / Taylor Moore | +5000 | +4000 | +2800 |
| Davis Riley / Nick Hardy | +5000 | +4000 | +3300 |
| Scott Stallings / Trey Mullinax | +5500 | +4500 | +6000 |
| Will Gordon / Davis Thompson | +6000 | +3500 | +6600 |
| Ben Griffin / Ryan Gerard | +6000 | +4500 | +9000 |
| Robby Shelton / Lee Hodges | +6000 | +4500 | +5000 |
| Brendon Todd / Patton Kizzire | +6000 | +4500 | +4500 |
| Doc Redman / Sam Ryder | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Callum Shinkwin / Matt Wallace | +7000 | +4000 | +6600 |
| Brandon Wu / Joseph Bramlett | +7000 | +5500 | +6600 |
| Ben Martin / Chesson Hadley | +7000 | +5000 | +6600 |
| Akshay Bhatia / Harry Hall | +7000 | +5500 | +6600 |
| Erik Van Rooyen / Mj Daffue | +8000 | +6000 | +8000 |
| Aaron Rai / David Lipsky | +8000 | +6500 | +3300 |
