Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Betting: World Series Advanced Stats & Free $150 Contest
Both favorites have fallen in the National League and American League Championship Series, meaning the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged to battle for the 2023 World Series. Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds favor the slugging AL squad to take home its first title in franchise history.
Here, we’ll preview 2023 World Series odds by looking at both teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Click on the odds below to place a wager at the best sports betting sites, and scroll to the bottom of this article for info on how to enter a free $150 contest.
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2023 World Series Preview
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Tale of the Tape
Let’s start with a statistical look at the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
| Stat | Rangers | MLB Rank | D-Backs | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wRC+ vs. LHP | 115 | 5th | 92 | 23rd |
| wRC+ vs. RHP | 114 | 4th | 99 | 17th |
| Starting Pitcher ERA- | 90 | 4th | 107 | 21st |
| Starting Pitcher FIP- | 96 | 7th | 103 | 17th |
| Relief Pitcher ERA- | 109 | 25th | 96 | 19th |
| Relief Pitcher FIP- | 101 | 22nd | 103 | 24th |
| Outs Above Average (Defense) | 28 | 3rd | 31 | 2nd |
| Stolen Bases | 79 | 27th | 169 | 2nd |
| Baserunning Runs | -5 | 21st | +8 | 3rd |
In a lot of ways, this looks like a mismatch on paper. Texas’ lineup stands out as much better than that of the Diamondbacks. They smash both left-handed and right-handed pitching, while the Diamondbacks are notably weak facing southpaws.
Additionally, Texas has the better pitching staff on paper. However, these numbers overstate their advantage, if one even exists. Arizona has pared back its rotation to just Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt. Gallen nearly won the Cy Young, and Kelly was well above average. Pfaadt did not have a good season but has emerged down the stretch as the potential star, his prospect status foretold. He has a 2.7 ERA in the playoffs and peripherals to match.
Meanwhile, Texas’ staff has broken down a bit. Only Jordan Montgomery and Nate Eovaldi look healthy and strong. Max Scherzer returned to the staff in the ALCS but bombed in two starts. Dane Dunning and Martin Perez have been consigned to the bullpen, and Andrew Heaney is league-average at best. Jon Gray has been relegated to pen duty as well, returning from a wrist injury.
And oh, those bullpens. Those units have diverged wildly, with Texas’ crew remaining an implosion waiting to happen. Meanwhile, led by midseason pickup Paul Sewald and playoff star Kevin Ginkel, Arizona’s pen has sparkled with a 2.94 ERA and the best Win Probability Added of any postseason unit, signifying better performance in higher leverage.
X-Factors And Things To Watch For
Stolen bases and baserunning, in general, looms as an area where the Diamondbacks may need to find an edge. They excelled all year, running wild, and notably stole nine bases in nine tries against JT Realmuto, known for his strong arm and quick pop time.
Rangers catcher Jonah Heim ranked among the strongest catchers at controlling the running game, per Baseball Savant’s numbers. Whether he has more success than his Phils counterpart could play a big role.
We’ve already noted the struggles of Max Scherzer, but Zac Gallen hasn’t been much better. Gallen has pitched to a 5.24 ERA while losing a big chunk of his Called Strike+Whiff% and giving up a hideous 2.42 HR/9. While the latter number may tempt one to believe it’s just a small sample blip, Gallen’s K% and BB% have both gone in the wrong direction, indicating he’s just not pitching well.
A Texas park that has the sixth-highest home run factor looms as a potential trap for him. The same can be said of Brandon Pfaadt, who’s had homer problems dating to his minor league days. Conversely, any starts at home would figure to benefit both as Arizona’s park significantly reduces home runs.
The seeming bullpen mismatch may open the door for some live betting opportunities as well. If Arizona trails early, but Texas’ starter is laboring through a high pitch count, look for some longshot bets on the underdog or a live over.
What Do The Projections Say?
Publicly available ZiPS projections at FanGraphs, like Arizona’s chances relative to the market. Their numbers have Texas barely favored at 52%, suggesting a significant edge for the Diamondbacks at market prices.
However, note that these projections do not have accurate pitcher matchups as of Thursday evening. For instance, Jordan Montgomery is listed as the Game 1 starter when it will be Nathan Eovaldi, who actually projects better than Montgomery.
The projections particularly like Arizona’s chances in Games 4 and 5, suggesting another possible mid-series betting opportunity if Texas has an early series lead.
Rangers Vs. DiamonBacks Props: World Series MVP Odds
Here are World Series MVP odds for the top-10 players in the market.
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Player
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|---|---|---|
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Adolis Garcia
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Corey Seager
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Ketel Marte
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Corbin Carroll
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Marcus Semien
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Nathan Eovaldi
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Josh Jung
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Mitch Garver
|
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Gabriel Moreno
|
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Evan Carter
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Other notables include Gallen (+2000) and Montgomery (+2200). However, as I noted last year in this space, hitters have come to dominate the award, with just four pitchers in the past 21 seasons winning. Increased bullpen usage has made it difficult for pitchers to leave lasting impressions as they once could.
Since this series looks like it should see plenty of scoring, expect no different.
Free $150 World Series Odds Contest for Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks
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