World Series Odds, Advanced Stats: Phillies Underdogs Once Again

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 26, 2022
2022 world series odds

2022 World Series odds have the Phillies in a familiar role as underdogs and the Astros in a familiar role as favorites. Houston was heavily favored in each of its first two series, while Philly has prevailed three times running as underdogs.

Can the Phils make it four in a row and win their first title since 2008? Or can the Astros atone for last season, when they fell just short against another NL East foe in the Braves?

Let’s take a look at the main markets around the 2022 World Series odds and see what the advanced stats have to say. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to place a bet now.

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2022 World Series Preview: What Do The Stats Say?

First, let’s take a look at how the Astros and Phillies match up statistically. The following chart compares the two in a variety of key categories, with MLB rank to give a relative idea of where each stood.

StatPhiladelphia PhilliesMLB RankHouston AstrosMLB Rank
wRC+ vs. LHP1156th1242nd
wRC+ vs. RHP10212th1079th
Starting Pitching ERA-938th762nd
Starting Pitching FIP-873rd872nd
Relief Pitching ERA-10422nd722nd
Relief Pitching FIP-918th771st
Outs Above Average (Defense)-3429th302nd

Just like last year, the Astros bring a stronger, more well-rounded team to the table, at least statistically. However, that’s not a guarantee of victory, as Atlanta showed. It’s still a seven-game series in a sport where the best teams are barely 2-to-1 favorites over the worst teams, generally.

Projections housed at FanGraphs have the Astros just over 58% to win, which comes out to about -140 on the moneyline.

In any case, the stats do certainly favor the Astros. Most glaringly, they have an enormous team defense advantage.

While the Phillies look to have a clearly weaker offense, these numbers likely undersell them, especially against right-handed pitching. Bryce Harper missed more than a third of the season injured. He’s back and has scalded the ball in the postseason to the tune of .419/.444/.907. And Nick Castellanos’ projections (~120 wRC+) far outstrip his performance to date (94 wRC+).

The Phils bullpen, a weakness coming into the season, has also been fortified. They added David Robertson via deadline trade and he has delivered with a 2.70 ERA, while Zach Eflin has moved to the pen to serve a variety of roles including long man in the case a starter gets hurt or chased early.

What To Watch For

Defense looms as a swing spot in this series. You can see the Astros’ advantage here reflected in the gaps between the Phillies’ ERA and FIP — more balls in play fall for hits against this team than the pitchers deserve.

That was a problem at multiple points during the Phillies’ playoff run. They allowed unearned runs in several games. That issue only figures to be exacerbated in this matchup. Only Cleveland struck out less often than the Houston hitters, meaning the Philly defense will have plenty of chances to torpedo their pitchers’ work.

There’s also a lot of pressure on the Phillies to win the games started by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Those two are a leap above the back-end guys, unsurprisingly. Houston has a little more depth to their rotation, with both Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers looking like above average pitchers. Ranger Suarez isn’t too far behind them, but Bailey Falter and Noah Syndergaard look like potentially problematic arms to be starting in the World Series.

That said, Nola and Wheeler are on par with Astros aces Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander. These games should be tightly contested. Valdez, in particular, presents an intriguing matchup. While the Phils were stronger against left-handed pitching this season, they didn’t hit sinkers well (22nd in pVal/100), and Valdez has one of the best. They also didn’t do an especially great job lifting the ball, ranking middle of the pack in grounder rate. That feeds into Valdez’s monster 66.5% rate of scorching worms.

2022 World Series Odds And Prop Markets

The Astros opened around -180 and their market has inched upward. The current best price on them is while the best price for the Phillies is .

With the main markets accounted for, let’s take a look at props and MVP markets.

World Series MVP Futures

Several sportsbooks already have MVP futures posted as of Tuesday. Here’s a look at the odds for the top-five candidates (as listed by Draftkings Sportsbook) on each team.

Y. Alvarez
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+650
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+600
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+600
J. Verlander
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+950
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+1000
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+900
K. Tucker
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+1000
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+1000
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+1600
F. Valdez
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+1100
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+1100
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+2200
A. Bregman
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+1200
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+1000
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+1100
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B. Harper
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+650
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+700
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+500
K. Schwarber
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+1300
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+1100
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+1000
A. Nola
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+1600
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+1500
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+1800
Z. Wheeler
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+1700
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+1800
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+1600
R. Hoskins
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+1800
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+1800
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+1600

Also note that Jose Altuve (+1400) and JT Realmuto (+1800) are right there as well. Altuve looks interesting since markets on “Most Hits” have him as the favorite. However, he’s been ice cold of late and looks to be pressing at the plate with just three hits and 11 Ks this postseason.

Overall, hitters have dominated this award of late, which makes sense in a world of increasing reliance on bullpens. Just four starting pitchers have won World Series MVP in the past 20 seasons.

2022 World Series Odds: Exact Result

Finally, series props give the option take a shot at a little bit of a longer payout. The Astros winning a longer series in six or seven has been tabbed as the likeliest result. If the Phillies win, the market considers a seven-game series the most likely outcome.

Via FanGraphs’ projections, Phillies in six at +700 and Phillies in five at +900 both represent a bit of value.

Good luck betting 2022 World Series odds.

Astros 4-0
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+850
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+650
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+750
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+650
Astros 4-1
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+500
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+400
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+400
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+475
Astros 4-2
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+340
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+350
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+400
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+375
Astros 4-3
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+390
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+350
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+400
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+400
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Phillies 4-0
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+1800
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+1100
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+1400
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+1400
Phillies 4-1
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+750
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+750
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+800
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+900
Phillies 4-2
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+700
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+500
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+600
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+600
Phillies 4-3
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+650
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+550
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+600
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+650
Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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