Dodgers vs. Yankees Betting: World Series Advanced Stats, Odds, Picks

Two of the most storied franchises in MLB meet for the World Series. It’s Dodgers vs. Yankees, starting with Game 1 on Friday. Here, we’ll preview the 2024 World Series odds by looking at the Dodgers and Yankees’ strengths and weaknesses. It’s a fitting battle between the American League’s No. 1 seed and the National League’s No. 1 seed, each bringing powerhouse rosters.

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2024 World Series Preview

Dodgers Vs. Yankees Tale of the Tape

Let’s start with a statistical look at the Dodgers and Yankees. Use these to help you guide your bet on Dodgers vs. Yankees odds for this series and these games.

Stat	Dodgers	MLB Rank	Yankees	MLB Rank
wRC+ vs. LHP	121	1st	107	10th
wRC+ vs. RHP	117	2nd	120	1st
Starting Pitcher ERA-	105	19th	96	10th
Starting Pitcher xFIP–	98	12th	103	21st
Relief Pitcher ERA-	87	4th	90	6th
Relief Pitcher xFIP-	103	23rd	96	9th
Outs Above Average (Defense)	-1	18th	9	11th
Stolen Bases	136	10th	88	24th
Baserunning Runs	+5	8th	-12	30th

These teams arrived at this point on the strength of their offenses. By wRC+, which adjusts for park and league, they’re the No. 1 (Dodgers) and No. 2 offenses with only one point in wRC+ separating them. In reality, both teams are stronger than those numbers say, as the Dodgers played without Mookie Betts for a significant chunk of the season, and the Yankees added Jazz Chisholm in trade season.

The only relative weakness is that the Yankees have had a slightly tougher time against lefties. They’re still a good offense in that split, just not elite. That tracks with this roster, as guys like Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm, and Alex Verdugo have been much weaker without the platoon advantage.

Luckily for the Bronx Bombers, the Dodgers are significantly lacking in the southpaw department. The three-man starting rotation has no lefties, and the bullpen they carried in the NLCS had only one (Anthony Banda).

Remember that the Dodgers have an entire above-average rotation (and then some) on the IL. They’re down to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler. They’d probably prefer most of their infirmary ward to Buehler.

The Yankees, by contrast, have four above-average starters available.

New York also has a slight edge in the bullpens. Michael Kopech significantly fortified the Dodgers’ group, but the Yankees were a bit better by most peripherals. They’re a bit deeper with quality arms.

X-Factors And Things To Watch For

The aforementioned handedness issue with the Dodgers pitching sticks out to me. Having quality lefties is one of the reasons I was bullish on Kansas City’s chances earlier in these playoffs. Though that didn’t bear fruit in terms of a winning bet, the Royals successfully stymied the top of the Yankees’ lineup in high-leverage spots in a manner that Cleveland failed to repeat.

Baserunning gaffes also continued to plague the Yankees in the ALCS. They ran into several bone-headed outs.

Stolen bases could be a hidden edge for L.A. as well. Austin Wells was average by Statcast’s caught stealing metric, but Will Smith ranked No. 1. If small-ball comes into play late, the Dodgers might be able to steal a run in a spot that the Yankees cannot.

New York brings the better bench, with superior pinch-hitting options, including defensively versatile switch-hitter Oswaldo Cabrera.

Finally, how close is Freddie Freeman to being 100% healthy? The star slugger was nursing an ankle injury that visibly affected him in the NLCS. He sat out Game 6. He’ll have had a full week to heal up by Game 1.

What Do The Projections Say?

Publicly available ZiPS projections at FanGraphs favor the Dodgers by the slightest possible margins, 50.1% to 49.9%. They have the most likely outcomes as Dodgers in six and Dodgers in seven, at roughly 17% and 16%, respectively.

These projections account for a bullpen game for the Dodgers in Game 4 but then project Buehler as the Game 7 starter. That would be more of an all-hands affair, with the Game 5 starter (projected as Jack Flaherty here) likely available in some capacity in relief.

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Yankees Vs. Dodgers Props: World Series MVP Odds

The presumptive league MVPs meet here, but the market is much more bullish on Shohei Ohtani. I don’t think that’s necessarily warranted, given how close the line is on the series. Plus, the Yankees have a couple of lefty specialists in Tim Mayza and Tim Hill, who can exploit Ohtani’s relative vulnerability without the platoon advantage.

Giancarlo Stanton is tempting. He’s on fire with five homers and a .385 OBP in the playoffs. He should get plenty of chances to drive in Soto and Judge.

Likewise, Mookie Betts is hitting behind Ohtani at longer odds.

One name of interest is Yamamoto. Keep an eye on the Dodgers’ pitching plans. They haven’t announced a Game 1 starter opposite Gerrit Cole as of this writing. If Yamamoto lines up for Game 1 and can pitch thrice, he might be worth a punt at long odds. I have him projected as the best starter in the series.

However, as I noted last year in this spot, hitters have come to dominate the award, with just four pitchers winning in the past 22 seasons. Increased bullpen usage has made it difficult for pitchers to leave lasting impressions as they once could.

Mo’s World Series Pick For Dodgers Vs. Yankees Odds

I agree with the market in slightly favoring the Dodgers. They have home-field, and I think they will have a pitching edge in every game that Yamamoto and Flaherty start, as I have Flaherty projected better than Gerrit Cole. I differ from the projections, as they favor Cole due to his longer track record, but Flaherty was better across the board this year, and I think it was legitimate.

Unfortunately, I don’t see any value in Dodgers vs. Yankees odds on the series price since it aligns with my numbers.

I do seem to be lower than the market on the Yankees. Hence, I may have some Dodgers bets on individual games. I’ve also been successfully attacking some starting pitcher props, so keep an eye on Discord to see if I unearth any potential value there.