World Series Game 4 Picks, Predictions: How I’m Betting Yankees Vs. Dodgers Odds

Baseball season could be down to its final game. The Yankees host the Dodgers in Game 4, looking to take the first step in erasing a 3-0 World Series deficit. With Los Angeles throwing a bullpen game, World Series odds strongly favor the Yankees to at least make them sweat a bit with one win here. Below, I’ll explain why I bet the underdog here for Yankees vs. Dodgers odds.
The first pitch for Dodgers at Yankees is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX.
World Series Game 4: Yankees vs. Dodgers odds
Find the best odds for Game 4 at betting apps in your area below.
Will Gil Reduce Walks?
New York will use American League Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Gil with its season on the line. Gil is a solid pitcher, above average in my projections, but he does have a clear weakness: control.
During the season, Gil walked 12.7% of the batters he faced. That’s almost 50% more than the MLB average and translated to a hefty 4.57 BB/9. He got away with it because of a strong strikeout rate, a low BABIP, and lots of pop-ups, all of which look like they reflect Gil’s true talent.
However, the Dodgers are set up far better than most to take advantage of this weakness. They have one of the most disciplined lineups in MLB. Only two teams chased out of the zone less frequently, and only two teams worked walks more often (the Yankees and Brewers if you’re curious).
The Dodgers have frequently punished pitchers with questionable control. Look no further than Game 3, in which they worked six walks. They drew a staggering 42 walks in six games against the Mets.
Needless to say, Gil will have to pitch in the zone if he hopes for sustainable success here. Given his control issues, that may prove challenging.
Bullpen Game For Dodgers
L.A. repeated its roster construction from the NLCS, carrying only three starting pitchers for the World Series. Thus, Game 4 will be a bullpen game.
I’ve found that bullpen games are frequently undervalued by the market. It’s just easy to look at a game matching a solid starter and a random opener and instantly assume the former creates an advantage, but that’s often not the case.
For instance, the Dodgers’ pen projects to pitch to roughly a 4.00 ERA. That’s how it pitched in the regular season, which includes plenty of innings by guys who aren’t on the World Series roster. It’s performed similarly in the postseason with solid results. The Dodgers are 2-1 in bullpen games with an ERA of … 4.00.
That’s very similar to where I have Gil projected, so I don’t have the Yankees gaining a meaningful edge in the pitching.
Furthermore, despite only getting five innings from starter Walker Buehler in Game 3, the Dodgers won’t be at any kind of depth/availability disadvantage. The Yankees pulled Clarke Schmidt after 2.2 innings, so they had to burn through some arms, as well.
Michael Kopech was used the most of any Dodgers reliever (24 pitchers) on Monday night. Given he shouldered starter workloads at times last season, Los Angeles should still have all hands on deck.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 5,000 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.
Mo’s MLB World Series Picks: Dodgers Moneyline (+124)
The consensus line around -145 reflects nearly a 60% win probability for the Yankees. Given the tough matchup for Gil, I can’t get there. I make the Yankees closer to -115 favorites.
Thus, there’s enough value (barely) for me to pull the trigger at +124, the DraftKings Sportsbook price this morning. If you have access to Circa Sports, you can get even better, +128.
Best of luck with your World Series picks.