Spain Vs Morocco: 2022 World Cup Round of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 2, 2022 - Last Updated on December 3, 2022
Spain vs. Morocco odds

Spain, runners up in Group E, take on Morocco, winners of Group F, in World Cup Round of 16 match play. The game kicks Tuesday, Dec. 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET, televised by both FOX and Telemundo in the U.S. Below, we’ll go over Spain vs. Morocco odds and a preview of each team. Visit our 2022 FIFA World Cup odds page for more props and betting options, including tournament winners.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” props.  

Spain vs. Morocco odds

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Spain Team Preview

Spain found themselves moving up and down the table with alarming regularity with the way that Group E concluded on Thursday. After taking a 19th-minute lead against Japan, it looked as if Luis Enrique’s men had comfortably booked their place in the Round of 16.

Ahead at the interval and not concerned with results elsewhere. Fast forward six minutes into the second half and Japan found themselves not only 2-1 ahead but now top of the group, even if it was in a controversial fashion.

20 minutes later, Spain soon found themselves third in Group E. A goal for Costa Rica put them 2-1 up against Germany and for the next 180 seconds, Spain found themselves heading for the exit.

Thankfully for La Rioja, Germany found an extra gear and eventually went to win 4-2 against the Central American. The result wasn’t good for Germany, but it sure benefitted Spain.

Even though Spain had to make do with a 2-1 reverse to Japan, it is they who also join the Samurai Blue in the knockout bracket. They may be in the Round of 16, but they certainly did things the hard way.

After a blistering start to the tournament which saw them score seven unanswered goals against Costa Rice, this young Spanish side has subsequently cooled off and on the basis of their last performance. Their encounter with Morocco is far from a foregone conclusion. 

Morocco Team Preview

At every World Cup finals, there is always the inevitable discussion regarding which nation can be considered a true dark horse. A general rule of thumb is that the nation that everyone thinks is the dark horse usually does not make it to the starting gate.

Because to be a true surprise act, you really do need to fly under the radar and catch soccer’s global fraternity unaware– a radar that in 2022 has seemingly failed to spot the talents of Morocco.

Group F consisted of 2018 finalists Croatia and semi-finalists Belgium. The Atlas Lions managed to not only get out of Group F but also finish top of the table at the same time.

After their stubborn resolve earned a deserved point against Croatia, three more were collected after getting the better of Belgium. The two most difficult fixtures in the group and four points on the board.

The job was almost done before facing Canada and all they had to do was wait and found out who they would face in the Round of 16.

The nation in wait is Spain and with only the Strait of Gibraltar acting as a buffer between the two in geographical terms, this has all the hallmarks of a local derby. A derby that could just as easily throw the formbook out of the window. 

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

Spain vs. Morocco Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamGoals ScoredGoals AllowedGoal Difference2022 World Cup xG2022 World Cup xGA2022 World Cup xGD

Matchup History

Only three previous meetings have occurred between Spain and Morocco, of which Spain is unbeaten.

Spain upended Morocco twice in World Cup qualification in November 1961, earning wins in both Madrid and Casablanca. The pair of victories would see them progress to the finals in Chile a year later.

However, recent history has offered much more in the way of equilibrium. Morocco paired with Spain four years ago, where they managed to record a 2-2 group stage draw in Russia.

Spain vs. Morocco Odds: Bets To Consider

Tie after 90 minutes:

Although Spain find themselves currently fourth in the list of outright favorites, I am not in a race to back them at +600. I cannot say I am in a rush to back them Tuesday, either.

Even though this current Spain crop has plenty of young and exciting talents within it, you get the feeling that the 2022 World Cup is a tournament too soon. If we were talking about matters in North America, 2026 may seriously be their year.

Success on this side of the Atlantic Ocean is still a pipe dream and now La Rioja has to make sure they do not suffer a nightmare at the hands of Morocco in the Middle East. With extra time and penalties now on hand to break any stalemate, they might just need them.

Especially with the way Morocco has performed thus far, they showed no fear when going up against Croatia and Belgium in the group stage, they are unlikely to start showing it against Spain.

Both managers know that the game does not necessarily have to be won in 90 minutes. It may be the preferred outcome but risking it all in regulation time can sometimes mean an exit instead and this is why I am opting for a stalemate in normal time.

0-0 tie after 45 minutes OR under first half goals:  

When you consider that 23 of this year’s first 44 World Cup matches have finished 0-0 at the interval, this is far from a statistical quirk.

More than 50% of World Cup matches are now ending with no goals scored and this trend is highlighting that managers are aiming to simply stay in the game in the first 45 minutes. Go in level at the break and roll the dice after the interval.

That has largely been the measure of what we have seen in Qatar and I would not be surprised if we saw more of the same against Spain and Morocco. The Spanish will have learned their lesson after losing to Japan and the Moroccans will not look to make early errors.

The first half could be something of a feeling-out process– a few jabs landed here and there but nothing that would be logged as a knockout blow. If Morocco can get into the break largely unscathed, they will only grow in confidence even further.

Knockout tournament soccer offers a different dimension, so this could be a far cagier affair than observers first envisaged. Should this one follow the trend of no goals before the break, you can soon start to follow the winnings. 

World Cup Sports Betting Promos Spain vs. Morocco Odds

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