Workday Charity Open Betting Preview: Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas Highlight Another Strong Field

Posted By FairwayJay on July 8, 2020
Workday Charity Open odds

The Workday Charity Open is a new PGA Tour event and the first of back-to-back tournaments at Jack Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village Golf Club. Many players will play both tournaments with the prestigious Memorial Invitational Tournament the next week, hosted by Nicklaus, offering one of the highest non-major purses on Tour at more than $9.3 million.

The event in Dublin, Ohio is 17 miles North of Columbus. Early weather forecast calls for hot low 90s temperatures with up to an 80% chance of rain on Friday becoming more widespread in the afternoon as you evaluate the tee times and player pairings for the Workday Charity Open. There will be 156 players in the field and the course will actually play longer for the Workday event at 7,456 yards and Par 72 with tees and pin placements altered to play a little longer.

The Memorial is an Invitational event and will have 120 players and play slightly shorter with rough higher next week. The greens are also expected to be slower near 11 on the Stimpmeter for the Workday Charity Open.

Workday Charity odds

Predicting golf can be absurdly tough. Yet Bryson DeChambeau made it look relatively easy last week as the +650 favorite in winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The Workday Charity Open power rankings can direct you towards more insight and interest in players and potential winners and consideration of players to target in head-to-head matchups.

Patrick Cantlay’s odds to win have held at +1300 at DraftKings and dropped to +1500 at FanDuel. Cantlay is a top 5 golfer in the world statistically, as he’s excellent in the four top Strokes Gained stats. Cantlay has performed very well at Muirfield Village in a limited sample of three events. He won last year with a 19-under par total and finished fourth in 2018. He had significant gains in strokes gained Tee-to-Green and Approach. Cantlay gained strokes Tee-to-Green in 11 of 12 rounds which is by far best in the field. His putter is better on bentgrass as well. Datagolf predictive probability odds give him a 5% chance to win, 30% to finish Top 10 and 18.4% to finish Top 5. Only Rahm, Thomas and Matsuyama rank higher.

Justin Thomas leads the field in SG: Approach past 50 rounds at Muirfield. He has a pair of Top 10s and is an exceptional Tee-to-Green player. Thomas’ odds to win opened +1400 at FanDuel Monday and are now +1200.

Another favorite in the betting market that can make a good case is Xander Schauffele, who is +1700 to win at DraftKings but +1900 at FanDuel after opening +2000. Schauffele is No. 5 in those datagolf stats – nearly identical to Cantlay’s finishing odds.

Brooks Koepka has dropped from a +1700 opener to +1500 to win at DraftKings Sportsbook. His strokes gained off the tee in his last event at Harbour Town was his best since last summer’s US Open. It was also his first Top 10 this year, and Koepka’s stats are not up to par considering his ranking and market value.

Jon Rahm is holding steady at +1300 at DraftKings and +1500 at FanDuel. Rahm’s putting was awful in missing the cut at Colonial. He lost 4.3 strokes on Approach at the Travelers and finished outside the Top 30. His skills and stats are still strong and he leads this field in true strokes gained stats from Datagolf. Rahm will take some action despite only playing one event at Muirfield and missing the cut.

Hideki Matsuyama is holding steady at +1700 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has three Top 10 finishes in six events at Muirfield, including sixth last year. He also won in 2014. Matsuyama opened with 64 and 65 in two events making first round leader odds of +3300 an interesting option. Hideki’s Top 10 ranking on Tour in SG: Approach along with strong ball striking skills and length off the tee make him a threat most weeks as he’s also Top 15 on Tour in birdies and scoring.

Justin Rose offers value compared to the top of the market players considering his success at the course when playing the Memorial event. Rose has finished Top 10 seven times and won the Memorial at Muirfield in 2010. His odds to win are +2600 at both FanDuel and DraftKings and he opened +3300 at FanDuel. Top 10 finish odds (+335) are best at DraftKings.

A top player in course performance and stats that has fallen off is Rickie Fowler, who was 20-1 to win this event in 2018 and he finished T8 following a runner-up finish in 2017. Fowler also finished T14 on this course last year. His 2.6 Strokes Gained Approach last week was his best since the Tour returned from hiatus. Fowler is +3300 at FanDuel this week. His Top 10 finish odds are down to +275 at DraftKings.

Winner Odds

Game
07/09/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Justin Thomas
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+1100
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+1200
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+1100
Patrick Cantlay
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+1300
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+1400
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+1500
Jon Rahm
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+1300
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+1500
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+1500
Brooks Koepka
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+1500
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+1600
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+1600
Hideki Matsuyama
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+1700
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+1700
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+1600
Xander Schauffele
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+1700
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+1900
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+2000
Viktor Hovland
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+2600
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+2200
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+2200
Justin Rose
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+2600
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+2600
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+2500
Rickie Fowler
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+2800
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+3300
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+3000
Collin Morikawa
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+3000
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+3300
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+3300
Patrick Reed
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+3000
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+4000
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+3300
Gary Woodland
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+3500
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+5000
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+4500
Marc Leishman
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+4000
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+4500
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+4000
Matt Kuchar
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+4500
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+4500
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+4500
Sungjae Im
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+4500
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+4200
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+4500
Adam Hadwin
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+5000
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+5000
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+5000
Joaquin Niemann
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+5000
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+4500
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+4500
Jordan Spieth
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+5000
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+5000
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+4500
Bubba Watson
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+5000
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+8000
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+5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick
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+5500
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+5500
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+5000
Byeong Hun An
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+6600
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+8000
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+6600

View odds for every player at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM

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Improving players as longshots

Ryan Armour (+11000 at FanDuel): Armour’s form and skills are strong in recent events with a T8 at Travelers and T4 at Rocket Mortgage last week. His game is really coming along in more than one key category. At Rocket Mortgage, Armour was 5th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and T-5th in Par Breakers. The previous week at the Travelers, Armour was second in Strokes Gained Putting and was T-5th in Strokes Gained Total so all parts of his game are hitting the mark as he plays with more confidence. His putting on bentgrass greens is not strong, but in his last two starts at Muirfield Village he finished T23 in 2018 and T22 last year.

Kevin Streelman (+7500 at FanDuel): Streelman finished second at the Travelers and gained 4.4 strokes on approach. He’s finished Top 10 three times on the course in the Memorial Tournament including 4th last year. He’s +650 to finish Top 10 at FanDuel. A number of missed cuts makes him hit or miss, but his SG: Approach of 9.3 on this course last year was excellent and he leads the Tour in SG: Par 5s.

Cameron Champ (+7500 at FanDuel): The big bomber is No. 2 on Tour in driving distance (322 yards) and is getting more attention in the betting market now with two Top 15 finishes the past two events. Champ gained an average of five strokes Tee-to-Green in those two events. His putting, like many players, can be volatile, but Champ led the field in putting last week. Bentgrass greens not preferred, and he missed the cut in his only appearance at Muirfield last year.

Mark Leishman (+4500 at FanDuel): Leishman has two Top 5 finishes at Muirfield scoring 12-under par in both those appearances including last year. He’s also made the cut in 10 of 11 appearances which is also something to note when betting match-ups along with his SG: Tee-to-Green stats ranking Top 20 in the field in four of his last five visits to Muirfield Village. He clearly likes the course and more forgiveness off the tee, and DraftKings dropped his odds to win from +5000 to +4000 after taking more bets. His current form is not good, but Leishman’s course fit and success at Muirfield along with ranking No. 1 on Tour in SG: Approach makes him a viable contender and Top-10 finisher.

Young rising stars getting more attention in the betting market include Viktor Hovland (+2600), Collin Morikawa (+3000), Matthew Wolff (+7000) and Scottie Scheffler (+7500), who ranks Top 10 on Tour in birdie average. Wolff went low last week and finished second in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Morikawa and Hovland rank Top 10 on Tour in SG: Approach and Hovland’s Tee-to-Green game has led the field the last two events. He finished Top 12 in both events with seven rounds in the 60s. All four golfers compete at Muirfield Village for the first time in their PGA Tour careers, but note Matsuyama won on debut in his first visit to the course in the 2014 Memorial Tournament.

The big longshot market mover is K.H. Lee, down to +23000 at FanDuel. He’s +2200 to finish Top 10 at FanDuel, and had a great shot to do so last year on this course, but he fell apart late with a 79 on Sunday after opening with 68-67.

Top players in the Workday Charity Open

This week’s Workday Charity Open replaced the canceled John Deere Classic on the Tour schedule. The tournament will feature 12 of the top 25 players in the World Golf Rankings (OWGR), headlined by No. 2 Jon Rahm, No. 4 Justin Thomas, and No. 5 Brooks Koepka. Also teeing it up will be Patrick Reed (7), Patrick Cantlay (9), Xander Schauffele (11), Justin Rose (13),  Gary Woodland (18), Matt Kuchar (19), Louis Oosthuizen (20), Sungjae Im (22) and Shane Lowry (24).

In addition, the following notable players are in the Workday event field and placed well in last year’s Memorial Tournament on the Muirfield golf course.

  • Patrick Cantlay (1st)
  • Marc Leishman (5th)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (6th)
  • Jordan Spieth (T7)
  • Justin Rose (13)
  • Rickie Fowler (T14)
  • Xander Schauffele (T14)

Also, Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Brandt Snedeker and Davis Love will play in the Workday event as company sports ambassadors.

Major champions and still-top-60 players in the field include Bubba Watson and Jason Day. Rising young stars moving up the current 2020 FedEx Cup standings in the field include Joaquin Neimann, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff and Scottie Scheffler.

No fans will be allowed at the Workday Charity Open, although the Tour will bring back spectators in a limited capacity at next week’s Memorial Tournament.

Course and tournament info

  • Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
  • Location: Dublin, Ohio
  • Date: July 9-12, 2020
  • Par: 72 / Yardage 7,456
  • Purse: $6.2 million / Winner $1.1 million
  • Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass / poa annua with Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass and fescu at 3”.
  • Greens: Bentgrass / poa annua
  • TV: Golf Channel (Thurs-Sun) and CBS (Thurs-Sun 3-6pm ET)

Workday Charity Open betting promotions

DraftKings will be running numerous special offers – including odds and profit boosts – throughout the Workday Charity Open. Users of DraftKings Sportsbook will receive a 30% profit boost on one LIVE bet for each day of the tournament.

You can get started here, and also take advantage of many great in-play betting markets including hole-by-hole – which applies to the profit boost promotion.

DrafKings is also offering Odds Boosts on selected props including Jon Rahm to win the tournament along with this special prop of Rickie Fowler & Hideki Matsuyama & Harold Varner all to hit the fairway in regulation on their first hole (+285).

DraftKings also has a $1K free-to-play pool that enables users to get in on the action for free prizes. Additionally, you can create private pools to play with friends or family. To participate in the free pool, choose winners on props offered up by the contest and compete for $1,000 in free prizes.

Course Changes And Toughest Holes at Muirfield Village

When this tournament was announced as an addition to the Tour schedule in June, the maintenance crew was in the middle of renovating fairway bunkers on six holes. A total of 74 bunkers are on the course and the new fairway bunkers have been added on holes No. 6, 7, 10, 11, 13 and 18. Water also comes into play on 13 holes at Muirfield Village.

Muirfield Village is one of the Tour players favorite golf courses, ranking No. 6 in a player survey by Golf Digest. As you watch and wager on the event, it’s worth noting where players will find tougher holes and fewer birdies. A course overview shows Hole No. 2 ranked as the second toughest hole in last year’s Memorial event at Muirfield Village. The Par 4 averaged 4.167 strokes.

Hole No. 10 requires power and precision and the Par 4 ranked No. 5 on the course last year averaging 4.157.

The toughest Par 3 is 200 yards at No. 4, averaging 3.166 strokes.

The toughest finishing holes are a pair of Par 4s at No. 17 (4.157) and No. 18 (4.240), which ranks as the toughest hole on the course. The finishing hole has a creek to the left and an uphill approach across a swale to a large two-tiered and heavily contoured green surrounded by three bunkers.

The two easiest scoring holes are Par 5s at holes 5 and 15.

Key stats

The Jack Nicklaus design at Muifield Village, named after exclusive Muirfield Golf Links in Scotland where Jack won the 1966 Open Championship, requires strong approach play and skills on and around the green. Longer hitters have an advantage, but accuracy of the tee will allow for better approach opportunities.

Muirfield has shown an emphasis on approach more than typical results on PGA Tour, with data golf showing 39% of scoring on approach, compared to approx. 35% on average on Tour. Fairway’s are not as difficult to hit, and while accuracy will provide better approach opportunities, driving distance will be advantageous at Muirfield Village. Approach play stats are still more significant than driving stats at Muirfield.

Leaders in this field that rank highly this year in SG: Approach include Leishman (1), Morikawa (3), Cantlay (5), Matsuyama (6), Thomas (7), Hovland (8) and Woodland.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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