Women’s NCAA Tournament Odds: South Carolina, Iowa, Or The Field?
Time to dust off the printers! NCAA Tournament brackets are set for both the men’s and women’s tournaments. On the NCAAW side, South Carolina is a heavy favorite to win March Madness, followed by Iowa and LSU. But just how big a favorite are the Gamecocks in the Field of 68? Let’s dive into Women’s March Madness odds to find out, plus who might be over- and under-valued according to the bracket draw.
The Women’s NCAA Tournament begins with the First Four on March 20. The Final Four begins April 5 from Cleveland, Ohio.
Women’s March Madness Bracket
Women’s March Madness Odds: National Champion
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The Favorite: South Carolina Gamecocks
Dawn Staley’s team is the odds-on favorite to win a title for good reason. Unbeaten on the season, South Carolina (32-0) only just recently snapped a double-digit margin of victory streak at home. Currently, the best odds for the Gamecocks to win it all are (implied 54.6% win rate).
Kamilla Cardoso leads the charge with 14 points. 9.5 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game. Of course, she also hit a miraculous three to beat the buzzer and upend the Tennessee Lady Vols. Cardoso is joined by guards MiLaysia Fulwiley and Te-Hina Paopao, each averaging over 11 points per game.
With a season-long +29.8 average scoring margin, the tournament likely doesn’t really start for South Carolina until the Elite Eight. Barring a historic upset, you can almost sharpie in the Spurs to the Final Four.
Contenders: Iowa, LSU
While South Carolina dominated on the court, Caitlin Clark dominated headlines. Clark broke multiple NCAA records this season, most notably setting new all-time scoring marks for both men and women. Multiple games involving the Iowa Hawkeyes (29-4) also broke all-time viewership records for women’s basketball. Now, Clark begins her farewell tour in the NCAAW Tournament; the senior announced her intent to enter the WNBA Draft after the season.
Iowa leads the nation in scoring (men or women) with 92.8 points per game. Even in their four losses this season, the Hawkeyes averaged 74.5 points per game, good enough for 42nd in the country. The only way to beat this team is to outpace them.
However, thanks to the dominance of South Carolina, Iowa’s odds to win the tournament stand at (implied 12.5% win rate).
Defending champion LSU (28-5) is the other team in a second tier of odds before there’s a steep dropoff. Angel Reese posted all-world numbers this season, averaging 19 points and 13.5 rebounds per game. However, she’s far from a one-woman show. Six Lady Tigers average double digits this season, with Aneesah Morrow pacing the team in steals and blocks.
In a surprise during the bracket reveal, LSU was selected as a No. 3 seed in Region 2 alongside Iowa (the region’s top seed). Although a victory by either team proves their mettle, individually the route to the Final Four got much tougher for both Iowa and LSU.
Watch for Iowa’s odds to win lengthen, given its draw.
A Longshot to Consider
The territory of “longshot” comes up quickly when it comes to Women’s March Madness odds. The Ohio State Buckeyes (25-5), a No. 2 seed, already fall to on the futures board. The Buckeyes turned in a 100-92 overtime victory over Iowa earlier in the season and scored just shy of 80 points per game.
Ohio State features one of the stronger starting fives in the country. Cotie McMahon was the hero in the home upset over Iowa while Celeste Taylor fills out the stat sheet in multiple columns each game.
The Buckeyes won’t end up in the Final Four untested. They must go through JuJu Watkins and USC, as well as UConn, to even reach the Final Four. Expect Region 3 to be the most intriguing during this tournament. Given such a tough draw, Ohio State may also see its odds lengthen as the start of the tournament approaches.
Other longshots to keep an eye on:
- No. 2 seed Notre Dame ()
- No. 3 seed NC State ()
- No. 6 seed Tennessee ()
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