2024 WM Phoenix Open Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC Scottsdale

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA TOUR. The next stop is the 2024 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Compare WM Phoenix Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

The party gets going on the PGA TOUR this weekend. Highly anticipated odds for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale are now out. Not only is the field full, but the crowd will be packed too, as the WM Phoenix Open attracts the masses – and breeds a golf environment – like no other. With a seating capacity of up to 350,000, this event is third all-time in terms of attendance for a U.S. sporting event, peaking with over 216,000 fans in attendance in 2018.

Don’t expect the traditional golf clap this week. This will be the most energized golf viewing experience of the year. It rarely disappoints with its exciting risk/reward holes down the finish.

If you have a buddy who usually doesn’t care for golf, consider getting them on board this week, starting with this WM Phoenix Open Odds Guide for Novice Golf Bettors. It’s a very entertaining watch; the best TOUR players are here, and it usually produces some fun Sunday Super Bowl crossover props. Last year, you could have cashed on the Rory McIlroy Longest Drive > Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards prop with just a little bit of golf research. And we all know there’s about to be a big Sunday void in every sports fan’s life after this week. So, gather ’round for some golf!

Here’s a look at everything you can expect to help navigate 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds.

2024 OPENING WM PHOENIX OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Nine of the last 10 winners also won either a major championship or THE PLAYERS. With another loaded field in store, we should expect another high-octane event, the perfect precursor to Super Bowl Sunday.

Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete outright odds. Find the favorites in Phoenix this week with odds shorter than 20-1 below:

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The WM Phoenix Open never has a hard time attracting the game’s best. That was exacerbated last year when it was upgraded to an Elevated Event, attracting the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick for the first time. This year – perhaps a consequence of following the Pebble Beach Signature Event – the strength of the field took a slight step backward.

Arizona State alumni Jon Rahm won’t play for the first time in his career since fleeing the PGA TOUR for LIV. Arizona resident Tony Finau is out, a bit of a head-scratcher given his successful history here. Ludvig Åberg, Patrick Cantlay, and McIlroy also won’t play. Even still, the field boasts a competitive group that features seven of the OWGR top 10 and 11 of the OWGR top 20.

Scottie Scheffler returns to defend his title yet again as he chases an elusive three-peat at the WM Phoenix Open. Other past winners of this event returning to the field this week include Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Hideki Matsuyama.

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INTRODUCTION TO TPC SCOTTSDALE

After three consecutive weeks of course rotations and a couple of gimmicky pro-am setups, we’re back to a normal golf setup. We have a full arsenal of historical Strokes Gained data to project success at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.

Course History at TPC Scottsdale is the third-most predictive of any course on TOUR, behind Augusta National and Waialae CC. Players who have seen success here are more likely to repeat it than most other courses. For placement betting in particular, it’s become a sound strategy to rely on a repeatable floor of the top course history players. However, debutants like Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, and Matt Fitzpatrick showed that a lack of prior experience doesn’t mean you can’t compete.

It would seem the sticky course history has more to do with the unique atmosphere than course fit. You’re stepping into the arena at TPC Scottsdale with the most raucous crowds all year. Some relish the spotlight and feed off of the crowds; others struggle to reconcile it. A history of excelling in high-adrenaline competition like THE PLAYERS, Majors, or Ryder and Presidents Cups prove to be a consistent through line in contenders over the years and a subjective narrative worth considering before placing your 2024 WM Phoenix Open bets.

In short, TPC Scottsdale is not a “Specialist’s course.” One-dimensional players can’t lean on a particular strength of their game to gain on the field. To contend at the WM Phoenix Open – like Majors – it takes a player whose Ball Striking is the strength of their game and who can confidently scramble for pars under pressure.

For TPC Scottsdale course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past WM Phoenix Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our WM Phoenix Open odds page.

Course History & Comp Courses

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has seen equal shares of success from both short and long hitters, but the prevailing trend has always been Ball Striking. With ample water and desert hazards, consistent players off the tee with elite approach skills rise to the top.

Scottie Scheffler

It’s a rare instance when the World No. 1 enters a tournament as the two-time defending champ. You have to go back as far as Tiger Woods at the 2002 Bay Hill Invitational to find the last time a World No. 1 achieved a three-peat. That’s a recipe for uncomfortably short, yet justified, odds for Scheffler. It may also be a situation to consider the “Winner Without” market. Scheffler and Matsuyama are the only multi WM Phoenix Open winners in the field.

The Rest

After Scheffler, the rest of the top 10 in Event History rounds out with Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Rickie Fowler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Byeong Hun An, and Matt Kuchar.

There are few real surprises here. Top players with a strong history in Majors rise to the top of leaderboards. Four of the top 10 in course history here (Scheffler, Thomas, Fowler, and Kuchar) also won THE PLAYERS.

Looking at recent finishes, four players in this field delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Rickie Fowler.

Nick Taylor surprised with a runner-up finish in 2023 after missing three cuts in his previous four starts. You may want to think twice before fading a player on past performance alone.

There are 13 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (min. three appearances): Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Sam Ryder, Adam Hadwin, Corey Conners, Byeong Hun An, Grayson Murray, Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel, and Stewart Cink.

Comp Courses

Water hazards, stadium setups, and risk/reward par-4s are common across TPC courses. While there are plenty of scoring opportunities on this course, the winning score has not surpassed 20 under par since Tom Weiskopf’s renovation in 2014. In terms of Comp Courses, I’m looking closely at other events with firm & fast, moderate scoring conditions.

If I could pick one comp to TPC Scottsdale, I would probably side with TPC Sawgrass. Both TPC courses are similar in length and feature a similar closing stretch. They emphasize Ball Striking and Scrambling and have produced overlapping winners in Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, and Phil Mickelson.

I’m also looking closely at desert golf courses as comps. Many desert-style courses share the same look and feel, with similar green complexes. There’s also a skill to understanding distance control in thin desert air. TPC Summerlin and Stadium Course stand out as top desert comps. The Summit Club and Shadow Creek are other interesting courses to reference.

I’m also looking to courses like TPC Twin Cities, PGA National, Southern Hills, and Silverado Resort as strong non-desert style comps that place a particular emphasis on elite ball striking.

I also like some of the recent British Links courses like The Renaissance Club, St. Andrews, Royal Liverpool, and Royal St. George’s. The firm and fast conditions and oversized greens reward a similar skillset of control off the tee and elite approach play that is needed at TPC Scottsdale.

Looking across each of those comp courses, the top-10 players in SG: TOT are Daniel Berger, Sungjae Im, Matti Schmid, Scottie Scheffler, Eric Cole, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Adam Hadwin, Tom Hoge, and Tom Kim.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2024 WM PHOENIX OPEN ODDS

• SG: APP / SG: BS
• SG: OTT
• Birdie or Better Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling Gained
• Prox: 150-200
• P4: 400-500
• P5: 550-600
• SG: P (L36, Firm & Fast Greens)
• Course & Comp Course History

The argument can be made that SG: OTT is less important with a mitigated distance advantage. I don’t necessarily agree, however. Elite OTT players thrive in both avoiding hazards and generating scoring opportunities with added distance. The top 10 in terms of SG: OTT entering this week are: Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Yu, Byeong Hun An, Tyler Duncan, Jhonattan Vegas, Viktor Hovland (WD), Keith Mitchell, Max Homa, Cameron Champ, and Corey Conners.

SG: Approach will be even more crucial than usual. The top 10 players in SG: APP in this field are Scottie Scheffler, Sam Ryder, Lucas Glover, Eric Cole, Chez Reavie, JT Poston, Ryan Moore, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, and Daniel Berger.

Honing in on the most elite Ball Strikers in the field this week, four players who rank inside the top 25 in terms of both SG: APP and SG: OTT: Scottie Scheffler, Gary Woodland, Erik van Rooyen, and Corey Conners. Scheffler ranks No. 1 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP.

Putting

This event is usually set up as a “Team No Putt” week. Greens roll flat and true, absent of the skilled greens reading that was necessary at recent Poa events. Players like Scheffler, Matsuyama, Kyle Stanley, and Kevin Stadler have won here despite ranking near last in SG: P leading in. This is not a week I’ll be looking to place much weight on putting.

Scrambling

With dry and firm desert conditions, there’s an added emphasis on Scrambling. Greens won’t be as receptive as other recent courses we’ve seen. While I’m not emphasizing putting stats, Scrambling is a combo stat that I’ll be using to work around that. Ten players rank top-50 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and Scrambling: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger, Adam Svensson, JJ Spaun, Joseph Bramlett, Doug Ghim, Viktor Hovland (WD), Max Homa, and Luke List.

The ideal player for TPC Scottsdale should be elite in SG: Ball Striking (Top-30), and above average in Scrambling Gained, Comp Course History, Birdies or Better Gained, and Bogey Avoidance. Ten players in this week’s field fit that criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland (WD), Max Homa, JT Poston, Sungjae Im, Aaron Rai, Lucas Glover, Adam Svensson, and JJ Spaun.

Correlation And TPC Scottsdale

The correlation stats are fairly on par with the TOUR average. That tends to be a sign that favors the best overall players. Scrambling Gained, SG: P,  and SG: Short Game make the biggest jump compared to the TOUR average, each falling inside the top-11. In terms of stats to deprioritize, Prox: 125-175 and Prox: 200+ have proven to be the least correlated.

Only four players rank above average in each of this week’s top-10 correlated stats with success at TPC Scottsdale: Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland (WD), Max Homa, and Sungjae Im.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Kevin Yu

With Wyndham Clark currently on the hook to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 100-1 pre-tournament odds, I would officially call it irresponsible to bet the PGA TOUR in 2024 without exposure to at least one player at 100-1 odds or longer.

In the case of Kevin Yu, there are plenty of narratives building to support backing him beyond the expected 100-1 threshold. Yu might not carry the same cache with the home crowd as Phil Mickelson and Jon Rahm, but this event has always been kind to local Sun Devils. A standout at Arizona State, where he won three individual collegiate titles, Yu still plays out of Scottsdale and should feel right at home in his WM Phoenix Open debut.

He’s off to a hot start in 2024 with top-six finishes at both the Farmers Insurance Open and The American Express. Yu has demonstrated that his game translates across an array of easy and difficult scoring venues. Seemingly fully recovered from a knee injury sustained this time last year, he’s been able to lean on the strength of his driving to separate from the TOUR’s best. He ranks No. 2 in this field behind only Scheffler in terms of SG: OTT – a crucial skill to navigate TPC Scottsdale’s many lateral hazards.

Expecting the crowd to be on his side this week, Yu stands out with the highest ceiling among WM Phoenix Open longshots.

2024 WM Phoenix OPEN: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 WM Phoenix Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Max Homa
Justin Thomas

Tier 2

Eric Cole
Sam Burns
JT Poston
Sungjae Im

Tier 3

Tom Kim
Sahith Theegala
Brian Harman
Corey Conners
Hideki Matsuyama

Tier 4

Akshay Bhatia
Daniel Berger
Tom Hoge
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Adam Hadwin

Tier 5

JJ Spaun
Erik van Rooyen
Luke List
Matti Schmid
Sam Ryder
Kevin Yu

MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Course & Comp Course History, Par-4 Scoring, and SG: OTT followed by a more balanced mix of BoB Gained, Scrambling Gained, P5: 550-600, Good Drives Gained, SG: P, and SG: TOT (L24 Rounds).

Model Favorites

As validation for any model being run this week, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler remains on top. Unsurprisingly, he ranks No. 1 in SC: OTT, SG: APP, SG: T2G, and Course History. Sheffler once again will be the top threat on a course that historically leveled the playing field for less-skilled putters.

After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: JT Poston, Eric Cole, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland (WD), Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Adam Scott, and Sungjae Im.

Initial WM Phoenix Open odds arrived early. I’ll wait until all sportsbooks release refreshed odds Monday, but I’m currently considering a tighter card with exposure to Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, or Max Homa at the top and Kevin Yu, Erik van Rooyen, or Tom Hoge among longshots.

Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2024 WM Phoenix Open odds!

2024 PHOENIX OPEN OPENING ODDS

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