2025 WM Phoenix Open Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC Scottsdale

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2025 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Compare WM Phoenix Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

The party gets going on the PGA Tour this weekend. Highly anticipated odds for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale are now out. Not only is the field full, but the crowd will be packed, too, as the WM Phoenix Open attracts the masses — and breeds a golf environment — like no other. With a seating capacity of up to 350,000, this event is third all-time in terms of attendance for a US sporting event, peaking with over 216,000 fans in attendance in 2018.

Don’t expect the traditional golf clap this week. This will be the most energized golf viewing experience of the year. It rarely disappoints with its exciting risk/reward holes down the finish.

If you have friends who usually don’t care for golf, consider getting them on board this week, starting with this WM Phoenix Open odds guide. It’s a very entertaining watch; the best tour players are here, and it usually produces some fun Sunday Super Bowl crossover props. Last year, you could have cashed on the Scottie Scheffler longest drive > Patrick Mahomes passing yards prop with just a little bit of golf research. And we all know there’s about to be a big Sunday void in every sports fan’s life after this week. So, gather ’round for some golf!

Here’s a look at everything you can expect to help navigate 2025 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds.

2025 OPENING WM PHOENIX OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Nine of the last 11 winners also won either a major championship or The Players. With another loaded field in store, we should expect another high-octane event, the perfect precursor to Super Bowl Sunday.

Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete outright odds. Find the favorites in Phoenix this week with 20-1 and shorter odds below:

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The WM Phoenix Open never has a hard time attracting the game’s best. That was exacerbated in 2023 when it was upgraded to an elevated event, attracting the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick for the first time. For a second straight year — perhaps a consequence of following the Pebble Beach signature event — the strength of the field has taken a slight step backward.

Elite mainstays in this event like Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, and of course Jon Rahm will all have their absences felt this week. As one of the most electrifying events of the year, it’s a bit of a disappointment that only five OWGR top-15 players will be teeing it up this week, as the WM Phoenix Open is one of the best opportunities the PGA Tour has each year to “grow the game” by catering to a more casual crowd of sports fans on Super Bowl weekend.

Of that OWGR top-15 list, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, and Sahith Theegala are expected to headline as this week’s favorites. Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Sepp Straka, and Robert MacIntyre represent the second tier of headliners in a field that still boasts plenty of depth.

Nick Taylor is back to defend his surprise victory here last year, prevailing (as he so often does) in a playoff over WM ambassador, Charley Hoffman. Other past winners of this event returning to the field this week include Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Hideki Matsuyama.

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INTRODUCTION TO TPC SCOTTSDALE

After three consecutive weeks of course rotations and a couple of gimmicky pro-am setups, we’re back to a normal golf setup. We have a full arsenal of historical strokes gained data to project success at the 2025 WM Phoenix Open.

Course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third-most predictive of any course on tour, behind Augusta National and Waialae CC. Players who have seen success here are more likely to repeat it compared to most other courses. For placement betting in particular, it’s become a sound strategy to rely on a repeatable floor of the top course history players. However, debutants like Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, and Matt Fitzpatrick have shown that a lack of prior experience doesn’t mean you can’t compete.

It would seem the sticky course history has more to do with the unique atmosphere than course fit. You’re stepping into the arena at TPC Scottsdale with the most raucous crowds all year. Some relish the spotlight and feed off of the crowds; others struggle to reconcile it. A history of excelling in high-adrenaline competitions like The Players, majors, or the Ryder and Presidents cups has proven to be a consistent through line in contenders over the years and a subjective narrative worth considering before placing your 2025 WM Phoenix Open bets.

In short, TPC Scottsdale is not a “specialist’s course.” One-dimensional players can’t lean on a particular strength of their game to gain on the field. To contend at the WM Phoenix Open — like at majors — it takes players whose ball striking is the strength of their game and who can confidently scramble for pars under pressure.

Course History & Comp Courses

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has seen equal shares of success from both short and long hitters, but the prevailing trend has always been Ball Striking. With ample water and desert hazards, consistent players off the tee with elite approach skills rise to the top.

Scottie Scheffler

Truly putting the “Scot” in Scottsdale, Scheffler has strung together one of the most dominant runs of course history we’ve seen from a player at any course over the last four years. In that span, Scheffler has finished T3, 1st, 1st, and T7. It’s safe to assume Scheffler will be a factor in this tournament yet again in 2025, and it may not be a bad idea to consider the “winner without” market or placing some dual forecast outrights with Scheffler considering his dominance in the desert.

The Rest

After Scheffler, the rest of the top 10 in event history rounds out with Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sungjae Im. There are few real surprises here. Top players with strong histories in majors rise to the top of leaderboards. Four of the top 10 in course history here (Scheffler, Thomas, Fowler, and Kuchar) also won The Players.

Looking at recent finishes, seven players in this field delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Nick Taylor, Sahith Theegala, Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas.

There are 12 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (min. three appearances): Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, Webb Simpson, Sahith Theegala, Byeong Hun An, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, and Cameron Young.

Comp Courses

Water hazards, stadium setups, and risk/reward par 4s are common across TPC courses. While there are plenty of scoring opportunities on this course, the winning score has not surpassed 20 under par since Tom Weiskopf’s renovation in 2014. In terms of comp courses, I’m looking closely at other events with firm and fast, moderate scoring conditions.

If I could pick one comp to TPC Scottsdale, I would probably side with TPC Sawgrass. Both TPC courses are similar in length and feature a similar closing stretch. They emphasize ball striking and scrambling and have produced overlapping winners in Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, and Phil Mickelson.

I’m also looking closely at desert golf courses as comps. Many desert-style courses share the same look and feel, with similar green complexes. There’s also a skill to understanding distance control in thin desert air. TPC Summerlin and the Stadium Course stand out as top desert comps. The Summit Club and Shadow Creek are other interesting courses to reference.

I’m also looking to courses like TPC Twin Cities, PGA National, Southern Hills, and Silverado Resort as strong non-desert style comps that place a particular emphasis on elite ball striking.

I also like some of the recent British links courses like The Renaissance Club, St. Andrews, Royal Liverpool, and Royal St. George’s. The firm and fast conditions and oversized greens reward a similar skillset of control off the tee and elite approach play that is needed at TPC Scottsdale.

Looking across each of those comp courses, the top 10 players in SG: TOT are Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Kurt Kitayama, J.T. Poston, and Nick Taylor.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2025 WM PHOENIX OPEN ODDS

• SG: APP / SG: BS
• SG: OTT
• Birdie or better gained
• Bogey avoidance
• Scrambling gained
• Prox: 150-200
• P4: 400-500
• P5: 550-600
• SG: P (L36, firm and fast greens)
• Course history and comp course history

The argument can be made that SG: OTT is less important with a mitigated distance advantage. I don’t necessarily agree, however. Elite OTT players thrive in both avoiding hazards and generating scoring opportunities with added distance. The top 10 in terms of SG: OTT entering this week are Luke Clanton, Scottie Scheffler, Charley Hoffman, Kurt Kitayama, Jordan Spieth, Min Woo Lee, Daniel Berger, Sam Stevens, Alex Smalley, and Davis Thompson.

SG: approach will be even more crucial than usual. The top 10 players in SG: APP in this field are Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Joel Dahmen, and Mac Meissner.

Focusing in on the most elite ball strikers in the field this week, six players rank inside the top 25 in terms of both SG: APP and SG: OTT: Scottie Scheffler, Kurt Kitayama, Luke Clanton, J.J. Spaun, Doug Ghim, and Lee Hodges.

Putting

This event is usually set up as a “Team No Putt” week. Greens roll flat and true, absent of the skilled greens reading that was necessary at recent Poa events. Players like Scheffler, Matsuyama, Kyle Stanley, and Kevin Stadler have won here despite ranking near last in SG: P leading in. This is not a week I’ll be looking to place much weight on putting.

Scrambling

With dry and firm desert conditions, there’s an added emphasis on scrambling. Greens won’t be as receptive as other recent courses we’ve seen. While I’m not emphasizing putting stats, scrambling is a combo stat that I’ll be using to work around that. Ten players rank top-50 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and scrambling: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Kurt Kitayama, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Doug Ghim, Gary Woodland, Charley Hoffman, Victor Perez, and Robert MacIntyre.

The ideal player for TPC Scottsdale should be elite in SG: ball striking (top 30), and above average in scrambling gained, comp course history, birdies or better gained, and bogey avoidance. Seven players in this week’s field fit that criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Kurt Kitayama, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Doug Ghim, and Victor Perez.

Correlation And TPC Scottsdale

The correlation stats are fairly on par with the tour average. That tends to be a sign that favors the best overall players. Scrambling gained, SG: P,  and SG: short game make the biggest jump compared to the tour average, each falling inside the top 11. In terms of stats to deprioritize, prox: 125-175 and prox: 200+ have proven to be the least correlated.

Nine players rank above average in each of this week’s top-10 correlated stats with success at TPC Scottsdale: Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Max Greyserman, Sam Stevens, Seamus Power, Mac Meissner, and Carson Young.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Billy Horschel

The WM Phoenix Open is one of the select few weeks of the PGA Tour season where the stat model can only go so far in predicting how players are going to fare. TPC Scottsdale is an arena, and subjectively, I always look for players who are battle-tested in high-octane environments like Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups, or simply players who have proven they can deliver on the biggest stage as prerequisites when filling out my outright card. While those characteristics are not exactly conducive to finding longshots, it’s that same methodology that landed me on Nick Taylor at 170-1 odds last year after seizing the moment at the 2023 Canadian Open.

In the case of Billy Horschel, early odds releases have him slipping to 90-1 odds or longer, which is far too long for a player with his career resume, history at TPC Scottsdale, and flair for the brightest stages. The No. 19 player in the world according to OWGR, Horschel knows how to win with 10 career victories across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour since 2013. He added two to his total last season with wins at the Corales Puntacana Championship and the BMW PGA Championship.

TPC Scottsdale has proven to be one of the stickiest courses on the PGA Tour, having more to do with the overall atmosphere than how the course itself fits certain players. Horschel has loved coming here though, with just one missed cut over 12 career appearances and two top-10s over the last five years. The 2022 Presidents Cupper and TGL participant loves to perform on a stage, and he looks to be trending well with back-to-back strong performances at The American Express and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

2025 WM Phoenix OPEN: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 WM Phoenix Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama

Tier 2

Sahith Theegala
Sungjae Im
Tom Kim
Sam Burns

Tier 3

Kurt Kitayama
Nick Taylor
Billy Horschel
Davis Thompson
Cameron Young
Corey Conners

Tier 4

Lucas Glover
Gary Woodland
Doug Ghim
Victor Perez
Lee Hodges
JJ Spaun

Tier 5

Mac Meissner
Carson Young
Charley Hoffman
Alex Smalley

MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, course history and comp course history, par-4 scoring, and SG: OTT followed by a more balanced mix of BoB gained, scrambling gained, good drives gained, SG: P, and SG: TOT (L24 rounds).

Model Favorites

As validation for any model being run this week, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler remains on top. Unsurprisingly, he ranks No. 1 in SC: OTT, SG: APP, SG: T2G, and course history. Scheffler once again will be the top threat on a course that has historically rewarded the top ball-strikers and leveled the playing field for less-skilled putters.

After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Hideki Matsuyama, Kurt Kitayama, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Ben Griffin, Justin Thomas, Maverick McNealy, Max Greyserman, and Sam Stevens.

Initial WM Phoenix Open odds arrived early. I’ll wait until all sportsbooks release refreshed odds Monday, and will ultimately decide whether I want to construct a tight card around Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, and Billy Horschel, or take the plunge in the “winner without Scheffler, Thomas, or Matsuyama” market with deflated odds on players in the mid-to-long range like J.J. Spaun, Doug Ghim, Victor Perez, and Lee Hodges.

Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2025 WM Phoenix Open odds!

2025 PHOENIX OPEN OPENING ODDS

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