TPC Scottsdale is always the most electric venue each season on the PGA Tour. The added importance of “elevated status” behind the WM Phoenix Open now has only boosted this event to levels we haven’t seen before.
With all of the best players in the world heading to Phoenix this week for the $20 million purse, the 200,000 fans showing up each day are finally getting what they deserve. The added presence of the Super Bowl in town this week has made it a can’t-miss tournament.
Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds
All of the talk coming into the WM Phoenix Open was the debate about who was the best player in the world. It’s a valid question. But I made the argument it might have been excluding the worthiest candidate. Scottie Scheffler has appeared to validate that so far this week as he’s quieted the argument of Rory McIlroy vs. Jon Rahm and reminded people of the player he is.
Scheffler has been leading the tournament since early in the second round, and he’s done it with numerous big names chasing him. Most notable is Rahm, the other player looking to become World No. 1 with a victory this week. Rahm struggled early on Saturday and likely should have been at least a couple over par. But in typical form, he battled it around and managed a few birdies coming in to shoot 68 and sit two behind.
Nick Taylor will feature in the final group as the unlikely name, although the Canadian has shown some signs of late. He had a decent fall and then contended at the Sony Open before finishing seventh. It’s fair to say, though, that he’s playing above his head here with two major champions and the fact that he’s gained nearly 8.5 strokes to the field on and around the greens through three rounds.
Some of the players within four shots of Scheffler include Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day and Xander Schauffele. We should be in for an entertaining Sunday in Phoenix before the Super Bowl begins.
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Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider
Winner: Scottie Scheffler
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With how strongly I felt about Scheffler before the tournament, it would be silly to ignore him with a two-stroke lead going into the final round and plus-odds still flying around many boards. It could definitely be argued that a two-shot lead is as poorly as Saturday could have gone for Scheffler. He was again flawless with his irons but couldn’t get some easy birdie putts to fall throughout his round.
After catching fire with his putter last year when winning the WM Phoenix Open, Scheffler has gained less than a stroke on the greens this week and could really run away with this thing if he starts to hole putts more consistently on Sunday. Scheffler is 10th in the field in SG: Off the Tee with 2.96. He’s first in SG: Approach with an absurd 8.45 gained.
When someone this talented around the greens and this comfortable with the lead hitting his irons at such an impressive level, it’s hard to see how he falters tomorrow. TPC Scottsdale is such a good course for Scheffler’s game, and it feels like getting plus-odds still for perhaps the best player in the world is an easy bet.
Rahm will be the one to worry about, but the World No. 3 just isn’t hitting it consistently this week. He’s gained only four total strokes ball striking through three rounds and has been very fortunate to score as well as he has so far.
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Top-Five Finish: Jordan Spieth
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I had zero interest in Spieth coming into this week, but it was fairly clear early on that something must have clicked in Phoenix. Spieth had struggled recently with most facets of his game, but the irons have really been on at Scottsdale, a place he’s had success at. Though he managed just a 71 on Thursday and sat well back, I took a large bite out of his 125/1 odds due to the ball striking numbers, and he’s only improved on those since.
Spieth now sits second in the field in SG: Approach at 7.05 gained for the week. Only Scheffler has been better. The putter and driver have still been shaky at times, but they’ve done enough to keep him in contention. Much like Scheffler, I’m happy getting plus-odds here for Spieth to maintain or improve on his position.
There are plenty of guys behind him, but Spieth will be aggressive and should make enough birdies on Sunday to cement a Top 5 and some momentum as he gets ready for Augusta.
Top-10 Finish: Sam Ryder
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Since we’re going with some lower risk plays to start the final-round card this week, I wanted to include something that provides some bigger value if it hits in Phoenix. Sam Ryder sticks out the most to me when considering his recent form and incredibly high vibes when he’s at TPC Scottsdale.
Ryder was recently the leader throughout most of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, but the pressure on Sunday dropped him back a bit as he looked for his first win. He infamously made a hole-in-one at the 16th hole here last year and clearly enjoys the atmosphere that comes in Phoenix. Ryder currently sits in a tie for 16th and was much more in the mix before an untimely water ball on the 17th led to a double bogey.
Keeping the theme of our picks this week, Ryder is third in SG: Approach with 5.75 gained through three rounds. If he keeps hitting it purely on Sunday, he won’t have to shoot anything crazy to sneak inside the top 10.
WM Phoenix Open Odds
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