“For the love of elevation!” Linda Cohn yells somewhere distantly. The PGA TOUR is set to make its first full-field elevated event at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale this weekend. It also means my WM Phoenix Open bets.
The elevated status draws the strongest field we’ve seen since the The Open Championship last July. That means more appealing betting odds and just some all around quality, high stakes golf to whet our whistle before the Major season kicks in April. As a bonus, it’ll also serve as a nice amuse-bouche for your Super Bowl parties this Sunday, as the WM Phoenix Open will be scheduled to conclude in the hours preceding the Super Bowl.
Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my WM Phoenix Open preview. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place WM Phoenix Open bets.
HOW I BUILT MY WM PHOENIX OPEN BETTING CARD
Course History is sticky at the WM Phoenix Open. Oddsmakers have been sharp to that trend, pricing up players like Justin Thomas and Max Homa to more premium odds than if this event were to be played on a new or neutral course. That’s opened up some value on players with less experience on the course, despite debutants having a long history of early success here.
Whenever we get a loaded field like this, I try to stockpile value. I’ve built my betting card around players who have shown signs of being a course fit from performance in comp conditions. Subjectively, I’ve tried to identify those who thrive in high pressure, high adrenaline environments like Majors or Match Play events.
Back to business as usual with unit allocation at the WM Phoenix Open. I’m re-introducing first round leaders (FRLs) back into the fold after a one week observance in Sebastian Munoz’s honor.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for WM Phoenix Open bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
WM PHOENIX OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Patrick Cantlay
My Bet: +2500
Best Odds Still Available:
Between The Shriners Open and WM Phoenix Open, Patrick Cantlay stockpiled a win, four runner-ups, and T8 over six career starts on desert TPC courses. He also carries three additional top 10 finishes at The AmEx, which also features comparable desert conditions. That is one of the most astoundingly dominant runs in modern professional golf across similar playing conditions.
In my opinion, Cantlay should be the shortest player on the board after the big three of Rahm, Rory, and Scheffler, so I was prepared to jump on Cantlay at odds of 20-1 or longer this week. Losing in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler here in his debut last year, it didn’t take long for Cantlay to acclimate to this atmosphere. A regular winner in the FedEx Cup Playoffs with an accomplished Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup resume, Cantlay is exactly the type of player I’m looking for to step up in this arena.
Collin Morikawa
My Bet: +2500
Best Odds Still Available:
Morikawa was the first bet I placed for the WM Phoenix Open as my featured Spotlight player of the week. His number expectedly shortened since Sunday. He may be the most popular bet this week, and for good reason. The Las Vegas resident has already looked comfortable in desert conditions with a runner-up at The Summit Club and his most recent victory coming overseas in Dubai.
TPC Scottsdale is a picture perfect fit for Morikawa, who continues to excel with his ball-striking and has made notable improvements to his putting since the 2022 offseason. Already a two-time Major winner and Ryder Cup standout, there’s no question Morikawa has the poise to handle this stage. He led the field from tee-to-green in his debut here in 2021, and comes in red-hot with a T2 and T3 in his first two starts of 2023.
- Related: Tyler Duke’s WM Phoenix Open Golf Power Rankings
Tom Kim
My Bet: +3500
Best Odds Still Available:
Speaking of popular bets, it’s hard to find anyone in the golf betting community this week with a bad word to say about Tom Kim’s chances in Phoenix, even if he is making his debut. He’s shown a liking to desert conditions, with a win at The Shriners and T6 at The AmEx already this season. He should benefit from the desert climate again this week, as the elevation, dry air, and firm and fast conditions all give a much welcomed boost to Kim’s driving distance.
If there’s anywhere to poke a hole in Tom Kim’s game so far (aside from the lack of distance), it’s probably his lack of experience, seeing a majority of courses on the schedule for the first time. This week, however, he’ll get a huge boost with Joe Skovron on the bag. He helped Rickie Fowler pick up a win and four top 10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale since 2016.
Tommy Fleetwood
My Bet: +9000
Best Odds Still Available:
This is a week where longshots feel like a waste of money. Each of the last eight winners of this event have opened at 50-1 odds or shorter. However, the odds alone do not define a player as a longshot, and in Tommy Fleetwood’s case, this is simply a mis-price on a top-tier talent.
Fleetwood makes his WM Phoenix Open debut this week, undoubtedly attracted by its new elevated status. But Patrick Cantlay and Sahith Theegala showed us last year that you can pick this course up pretty quickly and a lack of experience is not always a detriment. Fleetwood’s resume in Ryder Cups and Major Championships absolve any doubt as to whether he can handle the pressure of the crowds this week. He’s only five starts removed from his win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and, although PGA TOUR starts have been sparse, he finished top 5 in three of his last four PGA TOUR appearances.
Corey Conners
My Bet: +11000
Best Odds Still Available:
Conners is currently 50-1 to win The Masters, which should tell you all you need to know about how much of a mis-price this is. Before last week, Conners was a more recent winner on the PGA TOUR than Justin Rose, with his last victory coming at the 2019 Valero Texas Open. It may be asking a lot for Conners to end that drought in a field as loaded as this one, but there’s no question the setup at TPC Scottsdale is ideal for him– it rewards elite ball strikers on generous greens. He enters in great form on the heels of four consecutive top 25 finishes, and he’ll look to improve on his career best T17 finish here in 2021.
WM PHOENIX OPEN FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Keegan Bradley
My Bet: +7000
Best Odds Still Available:
A regular FRL consideration, Bradley went on record after his ZOZO Championship win saying he would like to play himself into consideration for a Ryder Cup selection this year. What better way to campaign than getting off to a hot start at the People’s Open? His ball-striking continues to trend well and newfound consistency with the putter makes these Keegan FRL fliers feel a lot more viable than they used to.
KH Lee
My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:
K.H. Lee was your first round leader at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open, so that alone makes the 80-1 odds feel attainable this week. His game continues to improve, picking up a second win at the AT&T Byron Nelson last year. We should all know by now not to question Lee’s viability on a TPC course.
JJ Spaun
My Bet: +9500
Best Odds Still Available:
Spaun profiles to me as a poor man’s Tom Kim. So, if I like Tom Kim in a given week, you’ll probably find me doubling down with a Spaun FRL bet. Both players hit a short but straight ball off the tee and have the ability to spike with their irons and putting, especially on shorter tracks. Spaun’s in great form to start the 2023 season. He also held a share of the first round lead at this year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions.
JT Poston
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
Poston continues to stay in hot form with a T6 and three T21s over his last four starts. TPC Scottsdale is a course he’s found success at as well, with four top 40 finishes over his first four appearances. That’s a good sign for the hot play to continue. As one of the streakiest putters on TOUR, he should have plenty of birdie looks on Thursday.
Wyndham Clark
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
Clark is always a consideration for FRL and, although this course does not jump off the page as the perfect fit for his game, a little further research confirms he is more than capable of tearing this place apart. In 2020, Clark opened with a 10-under 61, so there’s no question he’s capable of going low at this course. With three top-20s over his last five starts, there should be no questions about his form either.
Mark Hubbard
My Bet: +15000
Best Odds Still Available:
Like Clark, I wasn’t drawn to Hubbard at first glance. But, he has his own share of low rounds at this course over recent years, posting a share of the first round lead in his most recent appearance (2021). He may have found something with his game, coming off of a T20 at Pebble Beach last week. If that’s true, I’m happy to take a flier on the 150-1 odds.
WM PHOENIX OPEN PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Full Tournament Matchup: Tom Kim vs. Cameron Young
My Bet: Tom Kim +108
Best Odds Still Available: Tom Kim +108
I rarely ever bet matchup props, but in a field as loaded as this one, I feel better about my prospects in a 1v1 bet at even odds than I do on a top 20 from one of the second-tier players in this field. Whenever I’m considering a matchup bet, I need to love one side and have my doubts on the other, and that’s exactly how I feel about Tom Kim vs. Cameron Young.
On the PGA TOUR, Young has not finished top 10 since the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July. Since then, Tom Kim piled up four top 10s that include two wins. Young comes off of a runner-up finish last week at the Saudi International, but travel fatigue is a concern for me. I still give the course fit edge between the two debutants to Tom Kim.
Top-20 Finish: Corey Conners
My Bet: +250
Best Odds Still Available:
Whenever I look to bet a placement prop, I’m looking for players with a conservatively high floor. With nine top 30 finishes over his last 10 starts, Conners fits that high-floor category. He’s gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in each of his last 10 starts. As the story goes with Conners, he’s been held back from higher finishes by his putter. At the WM Phoenix Open, there’s room for optimism, as he’s gained strokes putting in two of his first three appearances, making it through the cut each time.
Top-40 Finish: James Hahn
My Bet: +350
Best Odds Still Available:
There are a lot of great players in the field this week. That gives me pause to back many longshots in the top-20 market, instead pushing me to the top-40 market instead. Hahn, to me, is the most mis-priced player on the board, so I love the +350 top 40 odds. Hahn gained strokes ball-striking in 10 of his last 11 starts– his short game has just kept him from posting many notable finishes over that span– and thus the long price. This should be a get-right spot for Hahn, as he’s piled up five top 25 finishes over the last 10 years at this event. He made it through the cut in four of his last five appearances.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Collin Morikawa
Last year, I was intent on saving Morikawa in OAD for THE PLAYERS, as I felt that was the most perfect course set up for his game. Unfortunately, mother nature did not give him a fair fight in that event last year and it was a wasted bullet. I don’t know what the weather will hold a month from now in Ponte Vedra Beach, so I’m just going to pull the trigger now at one of the best comp courses to TPC Sawgrass. With new elevated status, this is absolutely an event OAD players should look to deploy one of the top-20 players in the world.
If not Morikawa, I would also consider Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, or Scottie Scheffler as OAD picks.
WM PHOENIX OPEN: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s WM Phoenix Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own WM Phoenix Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 Genesis Invitational Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
WM PHOENIX OPEN BETS: ODDS TO WIN
Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to bet now.
