2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: WM Phoenix Open Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
PGA Championship Make/Miss Cut Odds

PGA TOUR golf continues with TPC Scottsdale next on tap to host the 2024 WM Phoenix Open this Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Max Homa are the favorites among WM Phoenix Open bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA TOUR picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds across sports betting sites for each player.

One of the greatest weekends of the entire sports calendar year is just about upon us now, as we get set for the WM Phoenix Open to kick off the festivities at TPC Scottsdale this Thursday. With the most electric crowd atmosphere on the PGA TOUR schedule, this event is like no other and never fails to deliver fireworks.

Historically, this event has been kind to elite ball strikers with proven performance on high-octane stages and has opened the door for lesser putters to putt to field average. It’s no wonder Scottie Scheffler enters as the two-time reigning champion as he sets his eyes on the rare three-peat.

Ahead, we’ll go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.

Click on any of the WM Phoenix Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

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I missed out on the value available before Schauffele and Hovland’s withdrawals this Monday, but I’m content with where I landed from a value and course fit perspective. It’s impossible to ignore the trend of longshots winning each week on the PGA TOUR in 2024, so I’ve leaned in with a wider card of exposure, fading the sub 20-1 favorites this week.

Regarding unit allocations for my card, I’m rolling out a slightly different weekly structure from years past. From an outright perspective, I have typically stuck to an 8:1 ratio of 3U to pay 24U each week. This strategy was rolled out to hit six outrights over the full year to break even, or one outright every eight weeks.

With all of that in mind, this is how my units are staked out for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open:

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each


For PGA TOUR DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the WM Phoenix Open.

Jordan Spieth

My Bet: +2000
Best Available Odds:

At Pebble Beach last week, Jordan Spieth’s odds were about half those of Justin Thomas’ due to Spieth’s strong course history. So, I took the odds discount and backed Thomas. A week later, all roles are reversed.

It’s clear to see why Scheffler and Thomas are the favorites this week, but I still see some value on this number for Spieth a bit further down, as he’s proven to relish the active crowd environment here as he so often has in Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups. He’s regularly rebounded from poor January form in this event, carding four career top-10 finishes in Scottsdale. In each of those cases, Spieth has gained at least six strokes on approach, so it’s clear there’s something about TPC Scottsdale that meets his eye.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +3300
Best Available Odds:

Sungjae is your quintessential desert golfer, consistently contending in these conditions year in, year out. He ranks No. 2 in terms of Comp Course History, picking up his most recent win at TPC Summerlin. His track record at the WM Phoenix Open is unblemished with two top-10s, a T17, and T34 over four prior appearances. He set the PGA TOUR record for most birdies in a PGA TOUR event three starts ago at The Sentry, so I feel just fine about the state of his game as he returns in 2024.

Corey Conners

My Bet: +6500
Best Available Odds:

A look down the list of elite ball-strikers who’ve overcome their drastic putting woes to emerge victorious at TPC Scottsdale continues to set the stage for Corey Conners to pick up his first career non-Valero Texas Open win on the PGA TOUR. If Scheffler, Matsuyama, Stanley, and Stadler can win here, surely Conners is next in line, right?

Conners has been positive to the field in SG: Ball-Striking in each of his last 12 starts leading into this week. Unfortunately, he’s only gained strokes putting in three events over that stretch, but he’s finished top 12 in each instance. At TPC Scottsdale, Conners has gained at least 2.5 strokes off-the-tee in each of his first four trips while gaining on the greens in half of those starts. As always with Conners, a neutral-putting week is all he needs to play himself into contention.

Brian Harman

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

I draw a lot of parallels between links golf and desert golf, given the firmer conditions, larger greens, and importance of control off-the-tee to avoid runouts into lateral hazards. Controlled driving, bogy avoidance, and a hot putter were the keys to Harman’s Open Championship win, and those qualities will continue to serve him well in Scottsdale. Harman has above-average history at the WM Phoenix Open, with just one missed cut and two top-25s over the last 10 years. He’s better equipped now than ever before to handle this crowd atmosphere after taking down Royal Liverpool and playing in his first Ryder Cup this past year.

Kevin Yu

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

With Rahm playing in Las Vegas this week, the local Arizona State University fan base is going to need to find someone else to root for this week. Enter Kevin Yu!

My featured spotlight player of the week, Yu has gotten off to a red hot start in 2024 with a pair of top-10s to start the year at The AmEx and the Farmers Insurance Open. Yu ranks No. 2 in SG: OTT behind oly Scottie Scheffler, which is a skill that should pay dividends to navigate TPC Scottsdale’s many lateral hazards. Although a debutant, Yu has plenty of experience around this course as a Scottsdale resident.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:

Tom Hoge may officially be back to his fully dominant approach ways, as he has climbed to No. 2 in SG: APP in this field behind only Scottie Scheffler. It’s never a bad idea to chase elite approach play at a PGA TOUR event, but TPC Scottsdale accentuates the importance of SG: APP like few others. Hoge looks to have corrected some putting issues that stalled his 2023 season, as he’s now gained strokes putting in each of his last three starts. At the WM Phoenix Open, he’s gained 2+ strokes putting in four of six appearances, so it’s clear he feels comfortable around this course. Fresh off a T6 at the shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he looks poised to improve on his 2022 T14 finish at this event.

Nick Taylor

My Bet: +17500
Best Available Odds:

The runner-up to Scottie Scheffler at this event in 2023, Nick Taylor has done nothing but improve his stock in the year that’s passed, and yet he can still be found towards the very bottom of the odds board this week. Taylor flashed his A-game two starts ago at the Sony Open, where he finished T7, and has been trending well in terms of approach and putting to kick off 2024. He proved capable of stepping up in a high-pressure atmosphere when taking down the RBC Canadian Open at home last summer, an experience he should be able to build off of in a similar type of atmosphere this week.

Nate Lashley

My Bet: +20000
Best Available Odds:

For a 200-1 flyer, Lashley just checks too many boxes for me to ignore. He is a local Scottsdale resident with proven results at the WM Phoenix Open, finishing T3 here in 2020. And he’s in excellent form, flashing upside to contend with two top-10s over his last five starts. Good form and good course history make this a no brainer for me at these odds.

Sam Ryder

My Bet: +25000
Best Available Odds:

When Sam Ryder is playing his best, he is elite in Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, and SG: Putting. Those are three very valuable skill sets on the PGA TOUR, which I believe will inevitably culminate in a win soon on a course that rewards control off-the-tee over reckless bombing. TPC Scottsdale is one of those courses, so it’s no surprise to see Ryder has finished top-25 in each of his last two appearances here.

wm phoenix OPEN Bets: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

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JT Poston

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on Poston’s outright price, but he truly checks every conceivable box coming into this event. He’s had multiple top-25s here in lesser form, fits this style of golf course extremely well, and is currently making everything on the greens. That’s the type of player I want some exposure to for the first round lead.

Adam Hadwin

My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

Hadwin has finished one stroke off the first round lead in each of the last two years at the WM Phoenix Open, so some would say he’s due to finally claim the outright lead this time around. He’s always played his best golf in desert conditions, and has the combination of driving accuracy, approach skill, and spike putting upside needed to go low at TPC Scottsdale.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

A haven for precise ball-strikers who are less consistent on the greens, TPC Scottsdale may be the most ideal set up for the Thursday king to capture his first FRL of 2024. I’m always confident in Rai’s Thursday prospects, but feel especially good about this set up for him.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:

Another trendy ball striker who’s short game has gotten the worst of him, those troubles should not be as much of a concern at TPC Scottsdale for Eckroat. His distance off-the-tee and birdie-or-better percentage always make him a worthy consideration in the FRL market.

Nate Lashley

My Bet: +12000
Best Available Odds:

Lashley is coming in hot off of a T3 showing in his latest start at the Farmers Insurance Open and will look to keep that momentum going into this homecoming event. He’s always done his best work in birdie fests, so we know he has the ability to go low any given round.

WM Phoenix OPEN Bets: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Brian Harman > Shane Lowry

My Bet: -110

Pitting one Open Champion against another, I understand why Harman and Lowry may be priced evenly with Lowry, but see far more reasons to back Harman in this matchup. Lowry has played this event twice since 2018, missing the cut each time. On the other hand, Harman has loved returning to this event each year, and has missed the cut just once over the last decade. Both players are accurate off the tee and above-average on approach, but Harman boasts a major short game edge in this matchup, capable of winning an event with his putter alone. Also, I’d be lying if I said the distractions of Lowry in a hot, drunken, party atmosphere didn’t cross my mind when handicapping this prop.

Top-20 Finish: Nick Taylor

My Bet: +450
Best Available Odds:

A runner-up finisher here last year with three top-20s over his last six starts, this is a value bet for me on a player who has shown to have the intangibles needed to withstand this unique crowd atmosphere.

Top-20 Finish: Sam Ryder

My Bet: +475
Best Available Odds:

Speaking of handling this crowd atmosphere, Ryder famously made an ace on the 16th hole here in 2022, which will earn him the crowd’s support for the rest of his career at TPC Scottsdale. He’s finished top-25 in each of his last two appearances and is coming off of a career-best 2023 season.

Top-20 Finish: Nate Lashley

My Bet: +500
Best Available Odds:

With a T3 finish both in his latest start and previously at the WM Phoenix Open, Lashley checks the box for form and course history. He enters this event with a far more polished game than his odds might suggest.

One And Done

My Pick: Justin Thomas

With late withdrawals from Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland, there are far fewer elite options to choose from at the top of the board than we may be accustomed to seeing at the WM Phoenix Open. I’m admittedly off to a slow start in OAD, but the season is still early, so I’m going back to the basic principles of One And Done Strategy. “Will Justin Thomas be shorter than a 10-1 favorite at any other event the rest of this year?” is the question I asked myself, and I’m pretty sure the answer is no. It’s only February, but this is the type of event you “save” a Course Horse like Thomas for. Of course, Scottie Scheffler is a thought you need to consider when he’s chasing a three-peat, but I don’t think it’s smart to use Scheffler in a non-Signature Event or non-Major, given the potential prize money you would be leaving on the table.

I expect Thomas to be the most popular OAD selection this week, followed by Max Homa, Sungjae Im, and Scottie Scheffler. If not Thomas, I would also consider playing JT Poston, Hideki Matsuyama, or Jordan Spieth in OAD.


That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own WM Phoenix Open bets, and see you next Sunday for The Genesis Invitational preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.


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