Wisconsin Presidential Odds: Harris Leads Trump In Key Swing State

One of the key swing states that will determine the Presidency is Wisconsin, where Kamala Harris is a narrow favorite. The question of whether she should be is more interesting. With Tim Walz being the governor of a neighboring state and the VP debate Tuesday night, there’s never been a better time to check on Wisconsin’s presidential odds.

Make sure to check out our election odds page for more information on 2024 odds.

Wisconsin Presidential Odds

Party	Price	Sportsbook Equivalent
Democrats	$0.62	-163
Republicans	$0.41	+143

National Election Day Odds Tracker

Tipping Point, Once Again?

Wisconsin has been one of the tightest states for the last 25 years, though luck of the draw has obscured that fact. In 2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020, the state‘s results were within 1%. The fact that it voted for both Gore and Kerry obscured the fact that it’s a swing state, as did Obama’s two big wins there. 2016 returned it to its roots as a core swing state, and in both 2016 and 2020, it was the decisive state.

The Tipping Point State is the state that gives the winning candidate 270 Electoral College votes. For the last two elections, it’s been Wisconsin, as Democrats have done least well there of the core three Rust Belt swing states.

The state, whiter than both Pennsylvania and Michigan, has seen internal shifts. Democratic strength has been much more concentrated in the two cities, and they’ve chipped away at GOP margins in the suburbs. The collar counties of Milwaukee used to be the reddest part of the state, but now they’re much more competitive.

The countervailing force is Democratic weakness in the north of the state and bad trends for Democrats in the southwest. The hilariously named Driftless is drifting from Democrats, which is why the state can’t break from its narrow confines.

State Success For Democrats?

Democrats have had good results in Wisconsin in recent years. In 2022, Tony Evers won reelection to the Governor’s Mansion despite many doubters (myself included), and Mandela Barnes came 1% away from knocking off a GOP incumbent Senator despite being triaged by national Democrats. In 2023, Democrats flipped the (only nominally nonpartisan) State Supreme Court by winning an open seat by 11% on an explicitly pro-choice campaign.

Whether any of that matters for 2024 is unclear. Yes, Democrats have a good state party and a solid turnout machine, but those efforts matter more the lower you crank turnout. In a Presidential year, with Donald Trump on the ballot, it’s a different story. There is only so much signal you can discern from those results.

It’s not worth noting that Democrats in the state have won by emphasizing an abortion attack on Donald Trump-endorsed candidates.

Can We Trust Wisconsin Polls?

History says not so much, but it’s not entirely clear.

In 2016 and 2020, Republicans wildly beat their polls in Wisconsin. Polls in the state were terrible, with Trump beating his polling by 7% in 2020. Unlike Ohio, which had similarly big misses in 2016 and 2020, however, their polls have been decent in midterm years. 2018 saw no discernible bias, and in 2022, Barnes did beat his polls.

More notably, the two biggest sources of polling error in Wisconsin are either non-existent or radically different this cycle. Wisconsin is home to inarguably the worst poll of the 2020 election, the Washington Post/ABC Joe Biden +17 final week poll. That pollster literally does not exist in the same form anymore – any Post/ABC polls are now done by Ipsos, not Langer Research. The other big source of error was the Times/Siena Biden +11 poll from the final weekend. The Times/Siena still exist, but they have radically reshaped their polling in an effort to avoid another miss like 2020.

In all likelihood, there won’t be another polling miss nearly the size of 2020. The pollsters that blew Biden’s lead out to nearly double digits are either gone or reformed. Her 2% lead per Nate Silver is narrower than many Democrats would like, but the combination of state-specific factors and 2022 polling being good should give some confidence Harris won’t underrun hugely again.

Walz For The Asking?

Tuesday’s VP debate was a snooze fest, which was the Trump campaign’s last opportunity to turn the momentum. They also decided against pressing Tim Walz on questions about his military service, with JD Vance openly choosing to make the point about how Walz is more reasonable than Kamala Harris.

Whether Walz’s Midwest nice routine helps at all in Wisconsin is unclear. But in a state that could come down to thousands of votes, whatever residual appeal Walz has as a neighboring Governor could be crucial. It was notable that Vance didn’t try and get in the way of Walz’s folksy charm. 

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 4,000 community members and our staff sharing ideas daily.

Wisconsin Presidential Odds Prospects

Harris is a narrow favorite in Wisconsin, but it’s shakier than her similarly sized lead in Michigan. Yes, trends in the Milwaukee collar are strong, but Wisconsin trended right from 2016 to 2020, which is concerning. The fact that Wisconsin polls have been terrible in the two years with Trump on the ballot is also a concern.

Harris is the favorite in Wisconsin Presidential odds. Trump’s not spending nearly as much on TV in the state. There are real cases of optimism for Harris here.

The downsides are real, but I’m betting on Harris.

Latest Political Markets Analysis