Minnesota at Wisconsin Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Badgers Earn College Football Bowl Eligibility?
Rivalry Week has taken a backseat to the discussion around the 12-team College Football Playoff, but there are still games with plenty at stake. The odds for 5-6 Wisconsin vs. 6-5 Minnesota represent just that. These Big 10 foes have faced off 133 times, the most-played rivalry in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision. The winner earns Paul Bunyan’s Axe, but the Badgers can also punch their ticket into a bowl game. Let’s handicap the matchup.
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Minnesota at wisconsin: spread, moneyline, total
Situational Spot Favors Bucky
Wisconsin’s bowl eligibility isn’t toast if it falls to Minnesota on Black Friday. If a myriad of five-win teams lose this week, and the bowl system requires programs with 5-7 records to fill the holes, they would be selected by their Academic Progress Rate (APR). The Badgers are stationed third on this list:
- Northwestern (4-7)
- Cincinnati (5-6)
- Wisconsin (5-6)
- Air Force (4-7)
- Wake Forest (4-7)
- Auburn (5-6)
- Virginia (5-6)
- NC State (5-6)
- Utah (4-7)
Nevertheless, I expect Luke Fickell’s group to avoid needing any assistance. For bettors unfamiliar with situational spots, they attempt to uncover conditions in which programs have exceeded or underperformed their normal performance level — relative to the moneyline or spread. With the Badgers dropping three straight games and vying to keep their season alive, this contest qualifies as a motivational spot, supporting the home favorite.
Winning In The Trenches
The Golden Gophers’ defensive front did so for stretches against the Nittany Lions in Week 13. Still, it surrendered 4.8 yards per carry (YPC) to Nicholas Singleton in a situational spot that favored Minnesota. P.J. Fleck’s team covered the spread (+12), but it wasn’t a standout performance versus Penn State’s normally-explosive rushing attack.
Overall, Minnesota’s run defense is stout, ranking 32nd in rushing success rate allowed. But inspecting beyond the surface-level metrics tells a different story. The Gophers settle in the 32nd percentile in stuff rate, meaning the percentage of running plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Minnesota has not showcased the dominance the initial metric suggests against teams with an above-average placement in adjusted line yards. Penn State, Illinois, USC, and Michigan each validated this notion versus the Gophers. Wisconsin is in the same camp, ranking 48th in this department, a hair below the Illini.
Although explosive rushing plays aren’t the Badgers’ strong suit (or close to it), their 23rd-ranked rushing success rate aligns with their offensive line’s ability to win the point of attack. I’m anticipating a big performance from Wisconsin tailback Tawee Walker, whose recent struggles correlate with the negative game scripts his team has faced.
The weather may play a sizeable role at Camp Randall Stadium, with wind gusts up to 15 mph knocking the temperature into the low 20s. This would aid the more proficient ground game, which is widely in favor of the Badgers.
Final Thoughts
I’ve only placed a handful of college football bets this year, going 5-1 (+3.90 units). I’ll add another with Wisconsin, laying the juice on the moneyline. The market has shifted toward Minnesota, but no significant injuries are behind the movement.
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