Why The Eagles Will Win Super Bowl 59: Odds, Analysis, & Matchup Breakdown

The Philadelphia Eagles look to take down the dynastic Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 59, which will kick off at 6:30 p.m. Sunday from the Superdome in New Orleans. 

Behind a top-tier offensive line, defensive secondary, and an infusion of explosive playmaking from Saquon Barkley, the Eagles have been the hottest team in the NFL since their bye week at the beginning of October, with their only loss in that span coming when Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter at Washington. 

We’re breaking down the odds and analyzing the matchup from a Super Bowl betting perspective to look at how the Eagles could win. 

Super Bowl 59 Odds and Analysis 

The Eagles opened as 1.5-point underdogs with +105 odds on the moneyline and have gained enough action to shift slightly down to +1 with +102 moneyline odds at some sports betting sites. The Eagles are 3-0 straight up this season when listed as underdogs, covering by an average of 12.2 points per game. 

The total for Super Bowl 59 opened at 49.5 points and has only slightly dipped to 49 or 48.5 points at some books. Action is primarily coming in on the over, which is the norm for a high-profile game like the Super Bowl. 

Super Bowl 59 Matchup Breakdown: Why The Eagles Will Win 

While the Philadelphia Eagles came up short in Super Bowl 57 against the Chiefs, losing 38-35, they’ve retooled the roster since then with one major addition in Barkley, who is only 30 yards away from passing Terrell Davis for the most yards in a regular season and postseason in NFL history.

Even when teams have held Barkley in check early, the explosive back usually finds a way to make an impact late, with 1,245 rushing yards in the second half this season at a rate of 6.7 yards per carry. The Eagles can control the clock with Barkley chewing up rushing yards, and Jalen Hurts has been almost automatic when asked to convert short-yardage situations with a sneak. 

Eagles bringing the best defense

Philadelphia’s defense is arguably the strongest unit in this game, with no discernible weaknesses. The Eagles struggled with some of the same personnel last season, but have taken off since Week 5 under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have allowed the fewest points per game (17.9), yards per play (4.8), and yards per game (289.3), with opponents converting on just 36.97% of third downs against their defense.

Fangio’s relatively conservative Cover-2 scheme is made dangerous because linebackers Zach Baun and Nolan Smith can cover so much ground and are sure tackles, plus their front four can generate pressure without blitzing. That formula might be what it takes to get Patrick Mahomes off his game in the Super Bowl. 

Breaking down the Chiefs

The Chiefs have squeaked out a number of close wins this season and could get caught on the wrong side of variance. If a flag, turnover, or pivotal play goes against them early and they fall behind, the Eagles are absolutely lethal with a lead. Philadelphia leads the NFL in time of possession and is second in turnover margin. They keep the ball on the ground and rarely fumble, so the Chiefs’ defense might not have any success generating turnovers. 

Kansas City has no real run game and ranks 22nd in rush success rate since Week 10. The Chiefs found success attacking Houston’s vulnerable slot defense with Travis Kelce and attacking backup Bills cornerback Kaiir Elam in their playoff wins, but the Eagles’ secondary has no weaknesses. This season, rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per target (5.7), and veteran Darius Slay has produced a league-high 17 pass breakups. Safeties Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson can stick to Travis Kelce with Cooper DeJean starring as a slot corner. The Chiefs receivers are older and slower than most of these rising stars, so they might not be able to gain consistent separation. 

Hurts to keep Chiefs honest?

The final piece to the puzzle might be Jalen Hurts keeping the Chiefs defense honest with his arm. Hurts passed for 304 yards in Super Bowl 57 and torched Washington’s secondary for 246 yards with a 71.4% completion rate in the NFC championship. He has two weeks to recover from the knee injury he suffered in the divisional round and could showcase the dual-threat ability that makes him so tough for defenses to handle.

And the kicker, of course, is that Hurts is the strongest quarterback in NFL history in terms of converting short-yardage situations with the Eagles’ patented sneak play. The “tush push” or “brotherly shove” makes it almost a certainty that the Eagles will score at the goal line, or convert on fourth-and-short, and the Chiefs’ offense simply doesn’t have that certainty.