Why The Chiefs Will Win Super Bowl 59: Odds, Analysis, & Matchup Breakdown

The Chiefs have the opportunity to do what has never been done in NFL history by winning a third straight Super Bowl. To do so, they’ll have to get past a revamped Eagles team that has retooled with a couple of key pieces since these franchises met in Super Bowl 57. 

We’re breaking down the matchup to analyze why the Chiefs are deserved favorites ahead of Super Bowl 59, which will kick off at 6:30 p.m. Sunday from the Superdome in New Orleans. 

Super Bowl 59 Odds and Analysis 

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorites on the neutral field, and the line has not moved much in either direction. The Chiefs are getting -115 odds on the moneyline. Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 against the spread in the playoffs when the Chiefs have been listed as an underdog or favored by less than a field goal, so it’s understandable why bettors aren’t coming in too heavily on the Eagles. 

On the other side, the Eagles have only been underdogs thrice this season and won each matchup outright with a +36.5 margin against the spread overall. The total opened at 49.5 points and has dipped slightly to 49 or 48.5 at some books. The last matchup between these teams totaled 73 points, but both sides have reached this point on the heels of their strong defenses. Check out the best available lines for Super Bowl 59 at online sportsbooks below.

Super Bowl 59 Matchup Breakdown: Why The Chiefs Will Win 

With two weeks to prepare, Andy Reid has been fantastic throughout his career. The veteran coach is 28-3 straight up after a bye week in the regular season and in the divisional round of the playoffs after earning a bye. While he’s 2-2 in the Super Bowl after the extra week, those losses both came against Tom Brady, and one was to both Bill Belichick and Brady. Now he’s scheming against an Eagles staff that is led by fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, a four-time champion, is scheming against an offensive coordinator, in Kellen Moore, who has only six years of NFL experience. Simply put, the Chiefs have a massive edge in terms of coaching experience, which proved pivotal in their AFC championship win over the Bills. 

Chiefs on defense

The Chiefs are much better positioned to slow down Saquon Barkley than the Eagles’ past three playoff opponents. Kansas City is built to stop the run with Chris Jones anchoring the defensive line and sizable linebackers Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal flying around to make tackles.

If they’re able to find success against the run, Jalen Hurts has not shown much consistency as a downfield passer. Hurts threw for 304 yards in Super Bowl 57 but has struggled during the second half of this season and suffered a knee injury in the divisional round. Philadelphia’s pass catchers are limited beyond A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, so the Chiefs can focus on those receivers with their best coverage men. 

Chiefs on offense

The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is on the interior, which is also where the Eagles’ defensive line is strongest. Philly might not be able to generate pressure off the edge to capitalize on the shaky offensive tackle play we’ve seen from Kansas City at times this year. Mahomes can excel against interior pressure by getting outside of the pocket to pick up yardage on the ground, and we saw the Chiefs call a number of designed bootlegs to burn the Bills’ defense in the AFC title game.

While Philadelphia’s offense is top-heavy, the Chiefs have seven legitimate receiving threats. Acquiring DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown while re-acquiring JuJu Smith-Schuster has given the Chiefs a stable of receivers to rotate into the game with fresh legs. And Xavier Worthy has given them the game-breaking speed they’ve missed since Tyreek Hill left. 

Chiefs have the experience

Kansas City is more experienced and healthier than this Eagles team, which will be without key linebacker Nakobe Dean (knee). Center Cam Jurgens (back) and guard Landon Dickerson (knee) are both dealing with injuries that could limit their performances or potentially force them from the game, and the Eagles’ offensive line took some time to gel early this season after Jason Kelce’s retirement.

The most experienced member of the Eagles staff is defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who is 0-8 in his career against Mahomes. As good as Philadelphia’s defense has been under Fangio, there is something special about Mahomes that should give Chiefs backers confidence whenever he takes a snap.