Who’s Favored for the Super Bowl? An Analytical Look at the Final Four

The NFL is down to its last four teams, with the winner expected to come from the NFC. Even though the Los Angeles Rams don’t have as strong of a record as the other three teams, the NFC West was seen as the strongest division in football this season. With two NFC West teams in the conference title game and San Francisco exiting a round earlier, the division’s claim has proven legitimate.

The Denver Broncos have seen their expectations dwindle significantly, as they’ve had to deal with the loss of starting quarterback Bo Nix. They still have a strong defense, but they’d have to beat two top-tier teams to win their fourth Super Bowl, which appears beyond the capabilities of backup Jarrett Stidham.

Here’s a look at all four teams and where they stand.

Seattle Seahawks (+155, FanDuel)

The Seahawks have to go without running back Zack Charbonnet, who was one-half of the team’s rushing duo during the regular season. Kenneth Walker III proved more than capable of handling the load on his own after Charbonnet tore his ACL in the playoff win over the 49ers.

The Seahawks’ big concern is whether Sam Darnold can solve the Rams’ defense. Last year, when Darnold was with the Minnesota Vikings, the Rams sacked him nine times in a one-sided Los Angeles victory in the wild card round. This year, Darnold has thrown six interceptions in two games against the Rams.

Darnold threw just eight interceptions in the Seahawks’ other 16 games, showing just how effective the Rams have been against him. For Seattle to make the most of its favored status, Darnold must take care of the football and Walker must be effective on the ground.

Los Angeles Rams (+230, DraftKings)

The Rams are attempting to become just the sixth team in NFL history to win three road games to make it to the Super Bowl. The Rams took this route to the Super Bowl once before in 1979, but they only had to win two road playoff games then. Los Angeles is the most recent team to win an NFC championship game on the road with fans in the stands, which it did in 2018 on its way to a Super Bowl loss to New England.

The Rams have looked shaky over the final few weeks of the season, as they’ve gone just 5-3 over their past eight games and two of the wins came against hapless Arizona. Most of those problems have come on the defensive side; except for last week’s win over the Bears, the Rams have allowed at least 27 points to every one of their past five non-Arizona opponents.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is 4-5 all-time on the road in the playoffs, with all four wins coming with Los Angeles.

New England Patriots (+260, Caesars Sportsbook)

New England’s presence in the AFC Championship Game continues the streak the Patriots share with the Kansas City Chiefs: every AFC Championship Game since 2010 has featured at least one of either the Patriots or the Chiefs. New England is 4-3 in the AFC title game during that streak, but Denver has been its Achilles’ heel: the Patriots are 0-2 against the Broncos in the AFC title game and 0-4 all-time in Denver in the playoffs.

New England quarterback Drake Maye will be making just his third postseason start, and his first away from home. Ball security has been a major issue for Maye, who has fumbled six times in two postseason games. In the divisional round against Houston, the Patriots turned the ball over three times, but were saved by their defense forcing five Texans turnovers. A similar performance against the Broncos isn’t likely to end well.

Denver Broncos (+1300, BetMGM)

The Broncos lost Bo Nix to a broken ankle in the win over Buffalo, and Jarrett Stidham will make just his fourth NFL start and first of the season. No quarterback has made their first start of the year in the conference championship game since Dallas’ Roger Staubach in 1972, and Dallas lost that game 26-3 to Washington.

Stidham does appear to have the full confidence of coach Sean Payton, who signed Stidham to a second contract to serve as Nix’s backup. But he lacks game experience; he hasn’t thrown a pass in the regular season since losing the 2023 season finale to the Raiders.

Denver will need to ride its defense to win: the Broncos ranked second overall in team defense this season. They ranked 10th in takeaways, which could be crucial against a New England offense that has been suspect with the ball.