Seeking Memphis Miracles: Could A Billy Horschel Or Louis Oosthuizen Capture WGC FedEx St. Jude Crown?

Posted By FairwayJay on July 29, 2020
WGC FedEx St Jude odds Billy Horschel Louis Oosthuizen

A longshot delivered with a Big Bertha drive last week when Michael Thompson (+12500) cashed in for bettors at the 3M Open. That snapped a streak of five straight PGA Tour winners that won at odds of 30/1 or less. Those five winners are all ranked in the top 12 of the current World Golf RankingsWebb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and new No. 1 Jon Rahm.

This week’s WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational will be tough for a longshot to break through with such a strong group of players. The WGC Invitational event has just 78 qualifiers shooting for the huge first place prize of $1.74 million – the biggest purse of $10.5 million since the PGA Tour reboot in mid-June. There is no cut this week, and all golfers will play four rounds through the weekend.

Some minor adjustments since the opening odds at FanDuel Sportsbook include top players moving up. Rory McIlroy moved slightly from +1000 to +1100, Thomas from +1100 to +1200 and DeChambeau from +1200 to +1400. Simpson is down from +2000 to +2200, Morikawa +2200 to +3000 and Xander Schauffele from +1800 to +2000. Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama have also seen slight upward movement with odds now north of +3000.

Let’s look beyond the top 20 players on the odds board and chip-in some thoughts on players priced +5000 or greater to win. A top 10 finish is more realistic for many players, as proven each week on Tour, and an outright win is a big bonus.

Rank
DFS Provider
Bonus
Features
Click To Claim
1
$520
Total Bonus Offer
$20 Free Play On First Deposit
Plus 20% deposit match up to $500
#1 in Daily Fantasy Sports.
2
$5 Free
No Deposit Required
$5 Free
$5 More On Deposit
Watch Sports, Play Fantasy, Win Cash!

Potential value at WGC FedEx St. Jude

Sometimes unexpected players like Thompson put it all together for four straight rounds and a win. Thompson had his best week ever in Greens-in-Regulation, top-5 in Strokes Gained: Approach and led the 3M Open field in SG: Putting. Thompson ranked No. 160 on TOUR in SG: Approach entering last week, proving that stats are just a small part of the evaluation and game when forecasting success.

Course fit and history of success plays a part, and that fits Billy Horschel this week.

Billy Horschel (+5000 at DraftKings Sportsbook): Horschel returns to a course where he’s finished top 10 five times since 2013. That includes last year in this WGC event at TPC Southwind. His tee-to-green game was strong at the two recent events at Muirfield and putting was even better to finish T7 and T13 despite opening with a 76 in the Memorial.

Louis Oosthuizen (+12500 at DraftKings): The golf betting strategy is not to just bet outright winners, but find value and also take a shot at a top 5, 10 or 20 finish. Oosthuizen is +750 to finish top 10, and last year he finished T20 in this event. That was after a poor opening round 73. The South African is off a solid ball striking tournament at Memorial where he finished third in Greens-in-Regulation and had his best week in SG: Approach. The putter was no good there, but perhaps will be better this week.

Corey Connors (+12500 at DraftKings): Connors has the same odds as Oosthuizen to win and to finish top 10. Look at the SG: Tee-to-Green stats and you’ll see many of the top of the market players in the top 20. Connors is in there too, and that stat has been significant towards winning and success at TPC Southwind. Six of the last eight winners at TPC Southwind led the field that week in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Connors also ranks top 15 on Tour in SG: Approach and top 5 in SG: Ball Striking, which is significant this week with more water in play and narrower fairways.  The Canadian T27 in this event last year and he’s playing even better now while also ranking No. 2 on Tour in Greens-in-Regulation. Connors T22 in his recent event at The Memorial, and he’s on the cusp of contending soon. Connors is a worthy tournament match-up play over fellow Canadian Adam Hadwin and also as underdog against Sergio Garcia.

All three of those longshots rank poorly in scrambling stats, which could be an issue if their ball striking and approach games are off this week.

The difference in odds can be substantial for these longshots. For instance, Matt Wallace is +10000 at FanDuel and is +12500 at DraftKings. It’s certainly worth comparing books.

WGC FedEx St. Jude odds: 2020

Outright Winner

Game
07/30/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Jon Rahm
Bet now
+850
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1000
Justin Thomas
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1200
Rory McIlroy
Bet now
+1150
Bet now
+1100
Bet now
+1100
Bryson DeChambeau
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Patrick Cantlay
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2000
Webb Simpson
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2200
Xander Schauffele
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2000
Tyrrell Hatton
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+3100
Bet now
+2200
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+3700
Bet now
+3300
Collin Morikawa
Bet now
+2900
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2800
Daniel Berger
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2900
Bet now
+2800
Brooks Koepka
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3100
Bet now
+3000
Hideki Matsuyama
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3300
Viktor Hovland
Bet now
+3100
Bet now
+3200
Bet now
+2800
Tony Finau
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3700
Bet now
+3300
Dustin Johnson
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3300
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Tommy Fleetwood
Bet now
+3650
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Abraham Ancer
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Jason Day
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Gary Woodland
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4500
Billy Horschel
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Rickie Fowler
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Jordan Spieth
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000

View all the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and FOXBet.

Last year’s WGC FedEx St. Jude results

Last year’s FedEx St. Jude leaderboard was loaded with top players on Sunday. Going into the final round, Brooks Koepka (9/4) trailed Rory McIlroy (6/5) by a single shot, and those two were the heavy favorites to win the event with Matthew Fitzpatrick (10/1) another shot behind starting Sunday. Koepka (-5) pulled away for a 3-shot win and 16-under par total while McIlroy (+1) and Fitzpatrick (-1) failed to fire on Sunday and finished tied for fourth. But a look at the leaderboard and pre-tournament odds told the story of how the cream rises to the top.

Five players that finished top 10 were offered at 60/1 odds or greater.

Player2019 Pre-Tourney Odds
1. Brooks Koepka+1200
2. Webb Simpson+4000
3. Marc Leishman+6000
4. Rory McIlroy+1000
4. Tommy Fleetwood+2500
4. Matthew Fitzpatrick+6000
7. Jon Rahm+1200
8. Ian Poulter+8000
9. Bubba Watson+10000
9. Billy Horschel+6000
11. Justin Rose+1800
12. Justin Thomas+1600
12. Patrick Cantlay+2000
12. Jordan Spieth+3000
12. Patrick Reed+4000
12. Rafa Cabrera-Bello+5000
FairwayJay Avatar
Written by
FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

View all posts by FairwayJay