A longshot delivered with a Big Bertha drive last week when Michael Thompson (+12500) cashed in for bettors at the 3M Open. That snapped a streak of five straight PGA Tour winners that won at odds of 30/1 or less. Those five winners are all ranked in the top 12 of the current World Golf Rankings – Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and new No. 1 Jon Rahm.
This week’s WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational will be tough for a longshot to break through with such a strong group of players. The WGC Invitational event has just 78 qualifiers shooting for the huge first place prize of $1.74 million – the biggest purse of $10.5 million since the PGA Tour reboot in mid-June. There is no cut this week, and all golfers will play four rounds through the weekend.
Some minor adjustments since the opening odds at FanDuel Sportsbook include top players moving up. Rory McIlroy moved slightly from +1000 to +1100, Thomas from +1100 to +1200 and DeChambeau from +1200 to +1400. Simpson is down from +2000 to +2200, Morikawa +2200 to +3000 and Xander Schauffele from +1800 to +2000. Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama have also seen slight upward movement with odds now north of +3000.
Let’s look beyond the top 20 players on the odds board and chip-in some thoughts on players priced +5000 or greater to win. A top 10 finish is more realistic for many players, as proven each week on Tour, and an outright win is a big bonus.
Potential value at WGC FedEx St. Jude
Sometimes unexpected players like Thompson put it all together for four straight rounds and a win. Thompson had his best week ever in Greens-in-Regulation, top-5 in Strokes Gained: Approach and led the 3M Open field in SG: Putting. Thompson ranked No. 160 on TOUR in SG: Approach entering last week, proving that stats are just a small part of the evaluation and game when forecasting success.
Course fit and history of success plays a part, and that fits Billy Horschel this week.
Billy Horschel (+5000 at DraftKings Sportsbook): Horschel returns to a course where he’s finished top 10 five times since 2013. That includes last year in this WGC event at TPC Southwind. His tee-to-green game was strong at the two recent events at Muirfield and putting was even better to finish T7 and T13 despite opening with a 76 in the Memorial.
Louis Oosthuizen (+12500 at DraftKings): The golf betting strategy is not to just bet outright winners, but find value and also take a shot at a top 5, 10 or 20 finish. Oosthuizen is +750 to finish top 10, and last year he finished T20 in this event. That was after a poor opening round 73. The South African is off a solid ball striking tournament at Memorial where he finished third in Greens-in-Regulation and had his best week in SG: Approach. The putter was no good there, but perhaps will be better this week.
Corey Connors (+12500 at DraftKings): Connors has the same odds as Oosthuizen to win and to finish top 10. Look at the SG: Tee-to-Green stats and you’ll see many of the top of the market players in the top 20. Connors is in there too, and that stat has been significant towards winning and success at TPC Southwind. Six of the last eight winners at TPC Southwind led the field that week in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Connors also ranks top 15 on Tour in SG: Approach and top 5 in SG: Ball Striking, which is significant this week with more water in play and narrower fairways. The Canadian T27 in this event last year and he’s playing even better now while also ranking No. 2 on Tour in Greens-in-Regulation. Connors T22 in his recent event at The Memorial, and he’s on the cusp of contending soon. Connors is a worthy tournament match-up play over fellow Canadian Adam Hadwin and also as underdog against Sergio Garcia.
All three of those longshots rank poorly in scrambling stats, which could be an issue if their ball striking and approach games are off this week.
The difference in odds can be substantial for these longshots. For instance, Matt Wallace is +10000 at FanDuel and is +12500 at DraftKings. It’s certainly worth comparing books.
WGC FedEx St. Jude odds: 2020
Jon Rahm | Bet now +850 | Bet now +1200 | Bet now +1000 |
Justin Thomas | Bet now +1000 | Bet now +1200 | Bet now +1200 |
Rory McIlroy | Bet now +1150 | Bet now +1100 | Bet now +1100 |
Bryson DeChambeau | Bet now +1200 | Bet now +1400 | Bet now +1400 |
Patrick Cantlay | Bet now +1800 | Bet now +2200 | Bet now +2000 |
Webb Simpson | Bet now +1800 | Bet now +2200 | Bet now +2200 |
Xander Schauffele | Bet now +2000 | Bet now +2000 | Bet now +2000 |
Tyrrell Hatton | Bet now +2200 | Bet now +3100 | Bet now +2200 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | Bet now +2800 | Bet now +3700 | Bet now +3300 |
Collin Morikawa | Bet now +2900 | Bet now +3000 | Bet now +2800 |
Daniel Berger | Bet now +3000 | Bet now +2900 | Bet now +2800 |
Brooks Koepka | Bet now +3000 | Bet now +3100 | Bet now +3000 |
Hideki Matsuyama | Bet now +3000 | Bet now +3000 | Bet now +3300 |
Viktor Hovland | Bet now +3100 | Bet now +3200 | Bet now +2800 |
Tony Finau | Bet now +3500 | Bet now +3700 | Bet now +3300 |
Dustin Johnson | Bet now +3500 | Bet now +3300 | Bet now +3300 |
Patrick Reed | Bet now +3500 | Bet now +3500 | Bet now +3300 |
Tommy Fleetwood | Bet now +3650 | Bet now +3500 | Bet now +3300 |
Abraham Ancer | Bet now +4500 | Bet now +5000 | Bet now +5000 |
Jason Day | Bet now +4500 | Bet now +4000 | Bet now +4000 |
Gary Woodland | Bet now +4500 | Bet now +4500 | Bet now +4500 |
Billy Horschel | Bet now +5000 | Bet now +5000 | Bet now +5000 |
Rickie Fowler | Bet now +5500 | Bet now +5000 | Bet now +5000 |
Jordan Spieth | Bet now +5500 | Bet now +5000 | Bet now +5000 |
View all the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and FOXBet.
Last year’s WGC FedEx St. Jude results
Last year’s FedEx St. Jude leaderboard was loaded with top players on Sunday. Going into the final round, Brooks Koepka (9/4) trailed Rory McIlroy (6/5) by a single shot, and those two were the heavy favorites to win the event with Matthew Fitzpatrick (10/1) another shot behind starting Sunday. Koepka (-5) pulled away for a 3-shot win and 16-under par total while McIlroy (+1) and Fitzpatrick (-1) failed to fire on Sunday and finished tied for fourth. But a look at the leaderboard and pre-tournament odds told the story of how the cream rises to the top.
Five players that finished top 10 were offered at 60/1 odds or greater.
| Player | 2019 Pre-Tourney Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Brooks Koepka | +1200 |
| 2. Webb Simpson | +4000 |
| 3. Marc Leishman | +6000 |
| 4. Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| 4. Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| 4. Matthew Fitzpatrick | +6000 |
| 7. Jon Rahm | +1200 |
| 8. Ian Poulter | +8000 |
| 9. Bubba Watson | +10000 |
| 9. Billy Horschel | +6000 |
| 11. Justin Rose | +1800 |
| 12. Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| 12. Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
| 12. Jordan Spieth | +3000 |
| 12. Patrick Reed | +4000 |
| 12. Rafa Cabrera-Bello | +5000 |
