WGC FedEx St. Jude Odds: Four Golfers To Watch

Written By FairwayJay on August 1, 2021 - Last Updated on August 4, 2021
fedex st. jude odds

The FedExCup Playoffs start in just two weeks, but another big money event tees-off the August schedule with the World Golf Championships – FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Justin Thomas travels back from the Tokyo Olympics, and he’s the defending champion of the $10.5 million event. He will again be near the top of the board in FedEx St. Jude odds. 

Thomas cashed in for $1.82 million last year, and he has a tough task to defend with 48 of the top-50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings set to take aim at TCP Southwind in Memphis. That includes Olympic gold medalist Xander Schauffele and USA teammates Collin Morikawa and Patrick Reed.

The elite field of 66 players are represented across 15 different countries.

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WGC-FedEx St Jude Odds

Strong fields will often produce world-class champions more often than not. Of course, with nine of the top-10 players in the world rankings in the WGC field this week, it’s tough to determine the potential winner just from that group. Justin Thomas won last year as one of the co-favorites at +1200 odds.

Outright Odds

Brooks Koepka
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+1100
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+1100
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+1100
Jordan Spieth
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+1200
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+1400
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+1600
Collin Morikawa
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+1200
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+1200
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+1200
Xander Schauffele
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+1400
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+1400
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+1400
Dustin Johnson
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+1800
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+1800
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+1600
Justin Thomas
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+1800
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+1600
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+1800
Daniel Berger
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+2000
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+2200
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+2200
Louis Oosthuizen
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+2000
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+2200
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+2000
Rory McIlroy
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+2200
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+1800
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+2000
Viktor Hovland
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+2500
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+2200
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+2500
Patrick Cantlay
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+2500
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+2200
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+2500
Matthew Fitzpatrick
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+2800
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+3400
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+3300
Webb Simpson
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+2800
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+3400
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+4000
Paul Casey
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+2800
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+2900
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+3500
Scottie Scheffler
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+2800
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+3100
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+3000
Hideki Matsuyama
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+3000
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+2700
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+2800
Abraham Ancer
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+3500
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+4100
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+3300
Bryson DeChambeau
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+3500
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+2700
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+2500
Harris English
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+3500
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+3700
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+3300
Patrick Reed
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+4000
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+3400
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+4000
Tony Finau
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+4500
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+4000
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+4000
Shane Lowry
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+4500
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+4100
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+5000
Cameron Smith
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+4500
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+3400
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+4000
Brian Harman
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+5000
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+5500
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+5000
Joaquin Niemann
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+5000
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+4100
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+4000
Tyrell Hatton
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+5500
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+4100
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+5000
Corey Conners
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+5500
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+4500
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+4000
Will Zalatoris
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+5500
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+4500
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+6600
Jason Kokrak
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+6000
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+4200
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+5000
Tommy Fleetwood
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+6000
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+5000
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+6600
Adam Scott
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+7000
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+5500
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+6600
Billy Horschel
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+7000
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+8000
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+6600
Sergio Garcia
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+7000
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+4500
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+6600
Sung-Jae Im
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+7000
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+5500
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+6600
Sam Burns
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+8000
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+5500
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+8000
Ian Poulter
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+8000
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+10000
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+8000
Justin Rose
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+8000
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+5500
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+8000
Phil Mickelson
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+9000
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+8000
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+10000
Cameron Champ
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+9000
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+6500
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+8000
Marc Leishman
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+9000
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+6500
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+8000

You can view odds for the entire field at legal sportsbooks like DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM.

Top Golfers in the FedEx St. Jude Invitational

When considering your golf betting options, including evaluating matchups and top players to win, know that there is no cut for the WGC event and golfers will play four rounds through the weekend.

Brooks Koepka won the event in 2019, and finished in a four-way tie for second place last year with Daniel Berger and 2021 PGA Championship winner Phil Mickelson.

Returning winners and top finishes from 2020

  • Justin Thomas (Winner, -13)
  • Daniel Berger (T2)
  • Brooks Koepka (T2)
  • Phil Mickelson (T2)
  • Xander Schauffele (T6)
  • Shane Lowry (T6)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (T6)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (T6)
  • Dustin Johnson (T12)
  • Webb Simpson (T12)

2019

  • Brooks Koepka (Winner, -16)
  • Webb Simpson (2)
  • Marc Leishman (3)
  • Tommy Fleetwood (T4)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (T4)
  • Rory McIlroy (T4)
  • Jon Rahm (7)
  • Ian Poulter (8)
  • Billy Horschel (T9)
  • Patrick Cantlay (T12)
  • Cameron Smith (T12)
  • Jordan Spieth (T12)
  • Patrick Reed (T12)
  • Justin Thomas (T12)

Two years ago, the WGC – FedEx St. Jude Invitational followed the British Open.

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION

  • Course: TPC Southwind
  • Location: Memphis, TN
  • Date: Aug 5-8, 2021
  • Par: 70 / Yardage 7,237
  • Purse: $10.5 Million / Winner $1.82 M
  • Fairways/Rough: Zoysia / bermudagrass
  • Greens: Champion ultradwarf bermudagrass
  • TV: Golf Channel (Thurs-Sun) and CBS (Thurs-Sun 3-6pm ET)
  • Twitter: @WGCFedEx / #WGCFedEx

The St. Jude Classic was a staple at TPC Southwind for 29 years, and became a WGC event in 2019. The small greens average just 4,300 square feet. The course was toughened up for the WGC event and as you’re watching and wagering on live in-play action, four of the five toughest par-4s are holes 5, 7, 17 and 18 with each more than 450 yards. Each of those holes average less than 13% birdies by the PGA TOUR pros. The toughest par-3 is No. 14, with the longest at 195 yards. The two easiest scoring holes are the par-5s at No. 3 and 16. The third hole was redesigned and a lake in the middle of the fairway comes into play on the second shot.

The signature hole is the par-3 with an island green at No. 11, playing near 160 yards. There are 11 holes with water hazards, as lakes, ponds and streams are scattered throughout along the fairways and defending the bermudagrass greens. In addition, every bunker on the course was re-edged, some redesigned and each of the 76 bunkers has fresh new sand.

The course is a par 70 at TPC Southwind. It isn’t as long and advantageous towards big-hitters like the past WGC events at Firestone, but it still favors good drivers of the golf ball and demands excellent driving skills.

KEY STATS

A history of rounds at TPC Southwind shows that Strokes Gained: Approach is an important stat for top-10 finishers followed by SG: Putting. Approach shots from 150-175 yards are tops in shot distribution followed by 175-200 yards. SG: Tee-to-Green has been a top stat for winners at TPC Southwind, and SG: Ball Striking is also more heavily weighted this week along with par-4 efficiency. 

Prior to TPC Southwind becoming the host course for the World Golf Championships, seven of the previous eight winners topped the tee-to-green charts for the week. Then in his 2019 win, Brooks Koepka gained +3.3 strokes on the field from tee-to-green. and was even better in his runner-up finish last year with +6.6 strokes gained tee-to-green. Justin Thomas gained +13.1 strokes tee-to-green to lead the field during his 2020 win at TPC Southwind.

Total Strokes Gained leaders at TPC Southwind (via Fantasy National statistics) with a minimum of eight rounds include:

  • Dustin Johnson
  • Daniel Berger
  • Brooks Koepka
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Webb Simpson

Johnson, Berger, Mickelson, Simpson and Justin Thomas are also among the top leaders in SG: Approach at TPC Southwind. And Johnson, Berger and Koepka are leaders in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Ball Striking. Koepka and Mickelson are each among the very top putting leaders with each having played at least 24 rounds at TPC Southwind.

Over their last 24 rounds, Players in the top 10 in tee-to-green and off-the-tee include Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia and Viktor Hovland.

Top 10 in both ball striking and approach include Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger

Par-4 efficiency leaders at TPC Southwind favors Brooks Koepka. He’s top two from both 400-450 yards and 450-500 yards. Dustin Johnson is No. 1 from 400-450 yards and top 10 from 450-500. Jon Rahm is top 10 in both.

However, Par-4 efficiency on all courses over the last 24 rounds show Bryson DeChambeau No. 1 from both 400-450 and 450-500 yards, and Webb Simpson top 10 in both efficiency distances.

Next weeks it’s the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC followed by the three weeks of FedExCup Playoffs.

Golfers To Watch

Beyond the strength of key favorites including Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson, who rank top two in total strokes gained at TPC Southwind over 28 rounds, here are other golfers to watch this week as the players push towards the FedExCup Playoffs.

Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay finished T12 here two years ago and had a strong weekend last year, shooting 65-67. Over his last 36 rounds, he ranks top-10 in approach and tee-to-green; key stats to an overall game needed at TPC Southwind. Cantlay only played one event in July at the British Open, but in three June events his strokes gained stats were strong across the board which led to three top-15 finishes including a win at the Memorial. Also prior to the Open Championship, he gained strokes off-the-tee in 13-of-14 events. Digging deeper into the bag, Cantlay’s fairways gained and par-4 efficiency stack up to make him a threat again this week outside of the leading favorites. Pushing for a Ryder Cup spot should have Cantlay looking to cash-in with a focused, best effort this week.

Tyrrell Hatton

Recency bias has impacted top-15 ranked Tyrrell Hatton, who has missed the cut in two recent majors where his putting and short game were poor. Same with the Palmetto event at Congaree in June, but he overcame that with exceptional, field-best tee-to-green stats and strong approach play. That fits this week, as does Hatton’s par-4 efficiency from 400-500 yards, which rank best in this field over the last 36 rounds. We trust that over four rounds Hatton will play from the short grass more than a majority of players, and he can raise his game up and push for a high finish and top 10 payoff at +350 as well.

Billy Horschel

Fresh off his sponsorship of the APGA Tour Invitational, Billy Horschel heads to TPC Southwind as an undervalued underdog himself. Horschel finished T25 here last year and top 10 two years ago when he gained strokes across the board. He’s +190 for top-20 finish and +400 for top-10. Horschel’s current form could be better, but he’s made nine of his last 10 cuts and is solid on and around the greens where he excels on Bermudagrass, ranking top 16 over his last 36 rounds putting. In his last six World Golf Championship events, Billy has finished top 10 four times including winning the WGC-Match Play this year and finishing T2 a month early at the WGC-Workday event, both with Bermuda greens. The final approval for Horschel over the course is that he’s finished top-10 four other times in past St. Jude events at the course, and ranks top 10 in total strokes gained at TPC Southwind with a field-high 32 rounds.

Sam Burns

Big hitting Sam Burns is falling down the odds board again. We cashed in at 100/1 on Burns when he won on a similar layout at Innisbrook where his fade and strength on Bermuda shined for his first PGA TOUR win in the Valspar Championship. He dominated strokes gained stats across the board that week, and his strong play and form continued with a second-place finish the following week. He then fell off while dealing with a minor injury, but found his groove again at the Travelers and Scottish Open over the past month. The 25-year-old has had a breakout season and ranks top-10 in birdie average, and he’s gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight U.S. events and has had four strong tee-to-green events since a week before winning the Valspar. Burns’ odds also reflect his lack of course form as he makes his debut in this WGC event.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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