My 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Betting Card and Bracket Predictions

Written By John Haslbauer on March 22, 2022
WGC Dell Match Play betting odds

It’s a short week for research and a long week for the golfers. We have a five-day stretch of golf in store this week with group play for the 2022 WGC Dell Match Play kicking off this Wednesday through Friday and ensuing rounds pushing through Sunday. Hard to imagine many players who advance out group play will stick around in Texas for the Valero Open with their eyes set on the Masters.

It’s usually a tall order to predict what’s going to happen in Match Play, let alone a randomized Group Match Play format, so I’ve taken a more conservative approach with my card this week, with potential for some live adds after the opening rounds. Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 WGC Dell Match Play bets as well.  

MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY WGC DELL MATCH PLAY BETS

Randomness and volatility are the buzz words this week. The best defense against randomness when it comes to betting is volume, so I typically try to spread my exposure across a number of longshots in these types of events, hoping one or two can advance to the round of 16. 

It’s a nuanced week from a unit allocation standpoint. With no FRL or Placement markets, I’m just going to roll out a tight card of Outrights only, with 2 Units of exposure to each pay out the usual 24U. I have 1U held aside if I decide to reload on someone with 24-1 odds or longer after round one, but am also pretty comfortable staying under-exposed for this event if there isn’t any blatant value to hop on. I’ll also be releasing a Corales Championship card tomorrow with another 2U of outright exposure as well, so just hoping to have a couple horses in the race come Sunday between the two events. Check back on Wednesday for more thoughts and strategy on Corales Championship bets.

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET to talk through all my favorite 2022 WGC Dell Match Play bets, DFS plays, and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. Hope to see you there!

WGC DELL MATCH PLAY BETS: OUTRIGHTS (2 UNITS)

Xander Schauffele

My Bet: +2800

Best Odds Still Available:

Xander Schauffele is expected to be on most betting cards this week at 28-1. We’ve been used to seeing Xander in full fields south of 20-1 odds, but for some reason after drawing what is arguably the softest opening group, Xander has drifted even further down the odds board. I expect little resistance from a reeling Tony Finau and lifeless Takumi Kanaya or Lucas Herbert. Nothing is guaranteed in Match Play, but this really should be a cake walk for Xander to get to the Round of 16, especially considering he’s coming off of a solid 3-1 showing at the Ryder Cup.

Bryson DeChambeau

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m strictly chasing value with this bet. There are no shortage of question marks with Bryson right now between his health and motivation before the Masters and that is unquestionably factored into the 45-1 odds. 

However, if healthy and motivated, Bryson is an exceptional fit for this short Pete Dye course, and gets one of the most favorable draws of opening group play, matching up with Talor Gooch, Lee Westwood, and Richard Bland. It would not shock me at all to see Bryson take an early exit, but from an outright perspective, he holds as high of an upside as anyone else in this field.

Maverick McNealy

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m a big fan of McNealy’s chances this week, both in the betting and DFS markets. I’m looking to target players who can gain in all four major strokes gained categories (OTT, APP, ARG, P), and McNealy fits that criteria, gaining across each over his last 10 events. He also has the ability to get hot with the putter, which is crucial to sustain a deep run in Match Play. A group with Niemann, Na, and Henley is no cake walk, but there’s also not a clear-cut favorite to advance from this group in my opinion, so I’ll take a crack at the longshot odds here.

Justin Rose

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

Another pure value play for me here, Justin Rose is just simply too decorated of a player to see odds this long in an event as volatile as Match Play. Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, and Keegan Bradley all have their flaws, so I don’t think it’s inconceivable for Rose to advance with the path in front of him.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

Like Xander, Hoge will be another commonly-bet player this week with odds over 100-1. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner has proven he can excel on shorter positional courses, and his Irons should position him well to generate scoring opportunities. He’s 7th in this field SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, so I would actually consider him to be the favorite to advance out the first round over Billy Horschel, Thomas Pieters, and Min Woo Lee.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Maverick McNealy

This is my least favorite week of the year for OAD. On the one hand, it’s a WGC with a huge purse on the line for the winner. On the other hand, it’s the most volatile event of the year, and favorites are bounced for an early exit before the Round of 16 at an uncomfortably high clip.

So with that, my OAD strategy is to select I player who I’m confident I will not want to use for the rest of the season, who also stands a chance to escape opening group play. This year, that player is Maverick McNealy.

If not McNealy, I think players like Kevin Kisner, Alex Noren, and Sergio Garcia – who also boast very strong career Match Play records – are worth a look as well.

WGC DELL MATCH PLAY BETS

BRACKET PREDICTIONS

QUADRANT 1 (TOP LEFT)

Group 1

No. 1 Jon Rahm: +1400; No. 3 model rank

No. 66 Sebastian Muñoz: +13000; No. 59 model rank

No. 28 Patrick Reed: +7000; No. 22 model rank

No. 45 Cameron Young: +12500; No. 52 model rank

My Pick: Jon Rahm

This is not a tournament you want to go super chalk in, and I don’t see myself playing Rahm in DFS, but he was the only favorite to escape to the round of 16 last year, and it’s hard to have much conviction in any of the other three players in this group on this course.

Group 16

No. 20 Brooks Koepka: +3300; No. 41 model rank

No. 61 Erik van Rooyen: +13000; No. 58 model rank

No. 33 Shane Lowry: +4000; No. 13 model rank

No. 40 Harold Varner III: +12000; No. 39 model rank

My Pick: Shane Lowry

One of my favorite value targets before groups were announced, Lowry gets a good draw here and is the clear top-riser from a model standpoint.

Group 8

No. 11 Dustin Johnson: +2200; No. 6 model rank

No. 57 Mackenzie Hughes: +15000; No. 51 model rank

No. 35 Max Homa: +6000; No. 33 model rank

No. 43 Matthew Wolff: +16000; No. 63 model rank

My Pick: Dustin Johnson

I didn’t expect to get a drift on Dustin Johnson’s odds, but the Ryder Cup MVP coming fresh off a course record at TPC Sawgrass is slowly rounding back into form before The Masters.

Group 9

No. 13 Bryson DeChambeau: +4000; No. 8 model rank

No. 60 Richard Bland: +25000; No. 60 model rank

No. 32 Talor Gooch: +6600; No. 36 model rank

No. 53 Lee Westwood: +16000; No. 62 model rank

My Pick: Bryson DeChambeau

Conventional wisdom would suggest not taking a favorite who is injured in an event that seldom sees the favorites advance. Most will pivot to Gooch here, but I’m biased towards my outright.

QUADRANT 2 (BOTTOM LEFT)

Group 4

No. 4 Patrick Cantlay: +2200; No. 2 model rank

No. 71 Keith Mitchell: +9000; No. 54 model rank

No. 26 Sungjae Im: +4600; No. 15 model rank

No. 48 Seamus Power: +12500; No. 42 model rank

My Pick: Patrick Cantlay

If I could pick one player to win, odds aside, it would be Patty Ice. He loves Match Play, was impressive at the Ryder Cup, and suits this course perfectly. He has a difficult draw in store however, facing Im, Power, and Mitchell.

Group 13

No. 17 Tyrrell Hatton: +3300; No. 37 model rank

No. 58 Christiaan Bezuidenhout: +8000; No. 48 model rank

No. 21 Daniel Berger: +2900; No. 10 model rank

No. 54 Si Woo Kim: +9000; No. 32 model rank

My Pick: Daniel Berger

I don’t have a strong read on this group, but despite Berger’s historically poor Match Play record, he is the best talent in this group. Have to wonder how his back will hold up if he were to play for five straight days, however.

Group 5

No. 5 Scottie Scheffler: +2000; No. 4 model rank

No. 67 Ian Poulter: +10000; No. 38 model rank

No. 25 Matt Fitzpatrick: +4000; No. 31 model rank

No. 46 Tommy Fleetwood: +5000; No. 40 model rank

My Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

Scottie Scheffler is on fire in terms of recent form, impressed with a runner up finish here last year, is a local Texas Longhorn, and beat Jon Rahm heads up in the last individual Match Play setting we saw him in. It makes sense for him to advance, but logic rarely prevails in this format. I’m taking Tommy Fleetwood as a contrarian play, as he seems to be quietly rounding back into form.

Group 12

No. 16 Billy Horschel: +3500; No. 7 model rank

No. 55 Min Woo Lee: +19000; No. 61 model rank

No. 31 Thomas Pieters: +12000; No. 49 model rank

No. 38 Tom Hoge: +8000; No. 21 model rank

My Pick: Tom Hoge

I have to double down on the man I bet outright to win. I still believe his odds should be the shortest to advance out of this group, given his recent form.

QUADRANT 3 (TOP RIGHT)

Group 2

No. 2 Collin Morikawa: +2000; No. 9 model rank

No. 70 Robert MacIntyre: +8000; No. 47 model rank

No. 27 Jason Kokrak: +7500; No. 44 model rank

No. 49 Sergio Garcia: +5000; No. 17 model rank

My Pick: Sergio Garcia

Collin Morikawa is a scary opponent in Match Play, but this is a group with some sneaky depth. I’ll go the experience route and take Garcia, who has a wealth of Match Play experience on his side over the rest of this group.

Group 15

No. 19 Abraham Ancer: +5500; No. 28 model rank

No. 65 Bubba Watson: +8000; No. 29 model rank

No. 36 Webb Simpson: +8000; No. 43 model rank

No. 50 Brian Harman: +6600; No. 45 model rank

My Pick: Brian Harman 

A fascinating group of four Pete Dye Specialists, Brian Harman enters with the best combination of recent form, event history, and course fit on short Pete Dye courses. This group is wide open, but I like Harman as a contrarian play.

Group 7

No. 9 Xander Schauffele: +2500; No. 11 model rank

No. 63 Takumi Kanaya: +25000; No. 64 model rank

No. 23 Tony Finau: +6600; No. 46 model rank

No. 44 Lucas Herbert: +16000; No. 56 model rank

My Pick: Xander Schauffele  

This should be a cake walk for Xander, who gets the path of least resistance in the opening round. No other player rates out in the top-40 of my model this week.

Group 10

No. 14 Louis Oosthuizen: +3300; No. 16 model rank

No. 56 Alex Noren: +6000; No. 20 model rank

No. 24 Paul Casey: +3600; No. 18 model rank

No. 41 Corey Conners: +7000; No. 35 model rank

My Pick: Alex Noren

A very interesting group of ball-strikers who struggle to make clutch shots, I would probably designate this as the official group of death. Noren is the best putter with the best Match Play record, so I lean his way here.

QUADRANT 4 (BOTTOM RIGHT)

Group 3

No. 3 Viktor Hovland: +1800; No. 5 model rank

No. 72 Sepp Straka: +9000; No. 55 model rank

No. 29 Will Zalatoris: +5000; No. 23 model rank

No. 51 Cameron Tringale: +13000; No. 57 model rank

My Pick: Viktor Hovland

I don’t love this format for Hovland, but the kid is on fire. I don’t think he’ll be tested much by the rest of this group, especially if he’s alluding to not giving Zalatoris any gimme-range putts.

Group 14

No. 18 Joaquin Niemann: +3600; No. 14 model rank

No. 74 Maverick McNealy: +9000; model rank TBD (late entry)

No. 30 Kevin Na: +12500; No. 26 model rank

No. 39 Russell Henley: +5000; No. 12 model rank

My Pick: Maverick McNealy

As a Syracuse alumni, I know a thing or two about the last man in making a run in March. McNealy is poised to make a run from the bubble to the Sweet 16 against this group.

Group 6

No. 7 Justin Thomas: +1600; No. 1 model rank

No. 59 Luke List: +13000; No. 50 model rank

No. 34 Kevin Kisner: +7000;No. 24 model rank

No. 42 Marc Leishman +8000; No. 30 model rank

My Pick: Marc Leishman

This is a potential “sandwich” spot for JT. In between almost winning the Valspar and prepping for the Masters, I would not be surprised if he wasn’t fully motivated to spend five days in Austin. This is a formidable group, but I think Leishman’s game sets him up well to contend in Match Play.

Group 11

No. 15 Jordan Spieth: +3500; No. 27 model rank

No. 69 Keegan Bradley +10000; No. 53 model rank

No. 37 Adam Scott: +5500; No. 25 model rank

No. 52 Justin Rose: +10000; No. 34 model rank

My Pick: Justin Rose

Jordan Spieth home in Texas is a sensible play, but as volatile as he is, I don’t think we can bank on him advancing as the presumptive favorite. I think Rose can surprise with a deep run here, with a chip on his shoulder after the Ryder Cup snub.

In closing, I give Xander Schauffele the best chance of winning this highly volatile event. Not only did he get the softest group draw, but I think his side of the bracket also lends itself to the highest likelihood of a top-seed upset in the opening rounds, so the soft draws may continue throughout. With an easy path, trending form, and solid Match Play history, the stars may align in the lone star state for the X man.

Best of luck with your 2022 Dell Match Play bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

View all posts by John Haslbauer