It’s a short week for research and a long week for the golfers. We have a five-day stretch of golf in store this week with group play for the 2023 WGC Dell Match Play teeing off Wednesday through Friday and ensuing rounds pushing through Sunday. It’s not quite the same atmosphere of a Ryder Cup, but I always look forward to the change of pace that comes with Dell Match Play bets.
Match Play is inherently volatile, but we can usually identify trends in players who suit the course at Austin Country Club, or who thrive under the pressure of the Match Play format, where others have struggled to. Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2023 WGC Dell Match Play bets as well.
MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY WGC DELL MATCH PLAY BETS
I have not had a ton of success betting this event in the past, which is probably to do with the fact that I’ve often halved my outright exposure between this event and the Corales Championship running opposite. This year, we’re switching things up and going full boar at both with 3U in to pay 24U out at each. Event history has proven pretty sticky for this unique Match Play format, so I’m prioritizing players in weaker opening groups who have shown proven results in past WGC Dell Match Play events, or the most recent Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup.
Check back on Wednesday for more thoughts and strategy on Corales Championship bets.
For Austin Country Club course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past WGC Dell Match Play winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our WGC Dell Match Play odds page.
Editor’s Note
WGC DELL MATCH PLAY BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Jon Rahm
My Bet: +1400
Best Odds Still Available:
Jon Rahm was the consensus best player in the world after round one of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Four rounds (and one stomach bug) later, a gap has suddenly been placed between Rahm and Scheffler. Although Rahm has not yet won this event, he’s reached the Quarterfinals as many times as Scheffler has (twice). To me, Rahm and Scheffler are World No. 1A and 1B at the moment, so I’ll take the rare opportunity to bet Rahm at double-digit odds in a limited field. Who could forget the last time Rahm was forced to prematurely withdraw from an event due to illness, he won the 2021 U.S. Open.
Tom Hoge
My Bet: +6600
Best Odds Still Available:
With Rahm on the card, we’ll need to skip straight to the longshots to round out the outright exposure this week. Hoge will need to do what Takumi Kanaya did last year and get out of Xander Schauffele’s opening group. After just breaking the course record at TPC Sawgrass, I think Hoge is capable of keeping that momentum going at another short Dye venue this week.
Sahith Theegala
My Bet: +7000
Best Odds Still Available:
Matt Fitzpatrick could not have looked much worse at last week’s Valspar Championship, and as he continues to nurse a neck injury, I’m looking at his Full Swing co-star as the presumptive favorite to advance. Theegala’s aggressive style of play should suit Match Play well, as demonstrated over his illustrious college career.
Si Woo Kim
My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:
The Pete Dye assassin has escaped group play once before at the WGC Dell Match Play, and has a path to do so again versus Hovland, Kirk, and Kuchar. Kim led the International Team in points at 2022 Presidents Cup with a 3-1-0 record, and now enters a venue far better suited for his game.
KH Lee
My Bet: +14000
Best Odds Still Available:
Like Kim, KH Lee also impressed in his Presidents Cup debut, going 2-1-0 for the International Team and beating the 2021 WGC Dell Match Play champion Billy Horschel in his singles match. Lee has two wins in the state of Texas over the last two years and enters in solid form after a T19 finish last week’s Valspar Championship. Drawing Cantlay’s group has driven Lee beyond 100-1 odds, but Cantlay has not advanced from group play in his first two appearances at this event, so there is a path for Lee to advance.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
My Bet: +15000
Best Odds Still Available:
I did not base my outright card solely on Presidents Cup Match Play performance, but Bezuidenhout’s 1-0-1 record with a singles win over 2019 Match Play champion Kevin Kisner is still notable at this price. A short positional course which rewards hot putting is a perfect set up for CBez, who has finished top-15 at the first two short Pete Dye courses he’s seen this season at The AmEx and THE PLAYERS.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Scottie Scheffler
The best player in the world enters this event as the defending champion (and finalist the year before), coming off a win in his previous start at THE PLAYERS, in front of a home crowd just miles away from his college campus. Oh, he’s also drawn a soft opening group and has one of the largest purses of the year at stake in a limited field. I get that Match Play is a volatile format, but there is quite literally no reason I can think of to fade Scottie in One And Done this week. If I’m wrong, at least my outrights will have a chance.
If not Scheffler, I would also consider Tyrrell Hatton, Jon Rahm, or Corey Conners.
WGC DELL MATCH PLAY BETS
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BRACKET PREDICTIONS
QUADRANT 1 (TOP LEFT)
Group 1
No. 1 Scottie Scheffler; No. 1 model rank
No. 17 Tom Kim; No. 22 model rank
No. 38 Alex Noren; No. 52 model rank
No. 54 Davis Riley; No. 56 model rank
My Pick: Scottie Scheffler
Tom Kim versus Scottie Scheffler is going to be a fun watch, but there’s not much firepower in this group overall to test the World No. 1, so I’ll take the chalk here.
Group 16
No. 16 Sungjae Im; No. 4 model rank
No. 24 Tommy Fleetwood; No. 13 model rank
No. 43 JT Poston; No. 33 model rank
No. 58 Maverick McNealy; No. 44 model rank
My Pick: Sungjae Im
Sungjae was the biggest riser in my model this week, climbing to No. 4 overall. It’s clear his game suits a shorter course like Austin Country Club, and had he not been set up to face Scheffler in the next round, he would have made it onto my betting card as well.
Group 8
No. 9 Collin Morikawa; No. 28 model rank
No. 32 Jason Day; No. 8 model rank
No. 44 Adam Svensson No. 50 model rank
No. 51 Victor Perez; No. 64 model rank
My Pick: Collin Morikawa
I think Jason Day will be a popular selection out of this group, considering he’s finished top-20 in six consecutive events now and Morikawa has looked lost with the putter. But similar to a guy like Sergio Garcia, Collin’s putting woes seem to go away in Match Play. He should thrive on a short course, and continues to strike it well.
Group 9
No. 8 Viktor Hovland; No. 10 model rank
No. 28 Chris Kirk; No. 20 model rank
No. 34 Si Woo Kim; No. 26 model rank
No. 59 Matt Kuchar; No. 41 model rank
My Pick: Si Woo Kim
There is some sneaky depth in this group, with three players inside my model’s top-26. The “worst” player in the group, Matt Kuchar leads the field in career Sweet 16 appearances at Austin Country Club, so there are no easy outs. I’ll side with the Pete Dye specialist here though, who’s looked great in 2023 since posting a 3-1-0 record in the Presidents Cup.
QUADRANT 2 (BOTTOM LEFT)
Group 4
No. 4 Max Homa; No. 11 model rank
No. 18 Hideki Matsuyama; No. 18 model rank
No. 42 Kevin Kisner; No. 63 model rank
No. 63 Justin Suh; No. 39 model rank
My Pick: Kevin Kisner
The No. 63 model ranking for Kisner is a very fair one, as he continues to display the worst form of his career. But, he could play this course with his eyes closed, leading the field with three career finals appearances at this event, so I’ll differentiate my bracket y chasing event history for the Match Play specialist.
Group 13
No. 12 Jordan Spieth; No. 25 model rank
No. 21 Shane Lowry; No. 31 model rank
No. 47 Taylor Montgomery; No. 30 model rank
No. 50 Mackenzie Hughes; No. 58 model rank
My Pick: Jordan Spieth
I don’t see a ton of resistance for Spieth in this group, as he’ll return home to Austin in great form coming off of two top-5s over his last three starts.
Group 5
No. 13 Sam Burns; No. 36 model rank
No. 30 Seamus Power; No. 19 model rank
No. 33 Adam Scott; No. 42 model rank
No. 53 Adam Hadwin; No. 16 model rank
My Pick: Adam Hadwin
The lowest seed in this group actually rates out the highest in my model here, so I’ll follow the numbers and back Hadwin here. He continues to improve OTT and is always a threat to catch a hot putter on Bermuda greens.
Group 12
No. 4 Patrick Cantlay; No. 7 model rank
No. 25 Brian Harman; No. 32 model rank
No. 35 KH Lee; No. 54 model rank
No. 55 Nick Taylor; No. 51 model rank
My Pick: KH Lee
This group should be a cake walk for Cantlay, but surprisingly he has never made it out of the group stage of this event before. So if that trend continues, I’ll side with Lee, who’s won in Texas in each of the last two years and comes in hot off of a T16 showing at the Valspar Championship.
QUADRANT 3 (TOP RIGHT)
Group 2
No. 2 Jon Rahm; No. 3 model rank
No. 22 Billy Horschel; No. 49 model rank
No. 39 Keith Mitchell; No. 21 model rank
No. 49 Rickie Fowler; No. 24 model rank
My Pick: Jon Rahm
This is a tough draw for Rahm, but assuming the stomach bug is behind him, I expect him to take care of business and advance.
Group 15
No. 15 Cameron Young; No. 15 model rank
No. 27 Sepp Straka; No. 48 model rank
No. 36 Corey Conners; No. 27 model rank
No. 57 Davis Thompson; No. 59 model rank
My Pick: Corey Conners
Not a ton of appealing options in this group, and I expect Conners to be a popular selection in this spot after taking third place in this event last year. While Young gets acclimated to his new caddie, I’ll take Conners’ ball striking consistency.
Group 7
No. 10 Tony Finau; No. 5 model rank
No. 19 Kurt Kitayama; No. 47 model rank
No. 45 Adrian Meronk; No. 60 model rank
No. 60 Christiaan Bezuidenhout; No. 57 model rank
My Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
This is a dream drawing for Finau, with all other players ranking outside the top-47 of my model. But even still, he’s struggled to take care of business in this event in the past. There are a few lowest seeds who will inevitably advance each year, so I like CBez’s chances coming off a strong T13 showing at THE PLAYERS in his last start.
Group 10
No. 7 Will Zalatoris; No. 17 model rank
No. 29 Ryan Fox; No. 37 model rank
No. 37 Harris English; No. 45 model rank
No. 56 Andrew Putnam; No. 46 model rank
My Pick: Harris English
It’s a very favorable drawing for the local Texan, Zalatoris, but I dare to be different, instead backing Harris English of the 2021 United States Ryder Cup team. His putter will be a great asset in this format, and his form is returning after a top-5 showing at the API.
QUADRANT 4 (BOTTOM RIGHT)
Group 3
No. 6 Xander Schauffele; No. 6 model rank
No. 23 Tom Hoge; No. 12 model rank
No. 40 Aaron Wise; No. 55 model rank
No. 64 Cam Davis; No. 29 model rank
My Pick: Tom Hoge
Xander broke the hearts of many at the 2022 Match Play, a community bet in the softest opening group of the tournament. I still hold a grudge for his early exit, but also love Hoge’s prospects at this short Dye course after just setting the course record at TPC Sawgrass.
Group 14
No. 11 Matt Fitzpatrick; No. 38 model rank
No. 26 Sahith Theegala; No. 43 model rank
No. 41 Min Woo Lee; No. 40 model rank
No. 61 JJ Spaun; No. 53 model rank
My Pick: Sahith Theegala
A tough scene in this group with no players placing inside the top-35 of my model. Fitzpatrick looks to be in the worst form of the 1-seeds leading in, so by process of elimination, I’ll go with my heart and back Theegala to advance.
Group 6
No. 14 Tyrrell Hatton; No. 2 model rank
No. 31 Russell Henley; No. 35 model rank
No. 46 Lucas Herbert; No. 62 model rank
No. 62 Ben Griffin; No. 14 model rank
My Pick: Tyrrell Hatton
It’s tough to hold much conviction in the Match Play format, but Hatton advancing out of this group looks like the most sure bet on the board. He’s in excellent form, ranking No. 2 in my model, he’s drawn a weak group of opponents, and he’s advanced to the round of 16 three times before already.
Group 11
No. 3 Rory McIlroy; No. 9 model rank
No. 20 Keegan Bradley; No. 23 model rank
No. 48 Denny McCarthy; No. 34 model rank
No. 52 Scott Stallings; No. 61 model rank
My Pick: Rory McIlroy
There’s been plenty of chatter around Rory’s equipment issues this week, but I’m not getting cute with this one. This is not an imposing group to challenge McIlroy, even if he uses this week to experiments with some new clubs in the bag.
In closing, as much as I hold out hope for some surprise runs from the longshots in this oft volatile format, all signs point towards Scottie Scheffler continuing his reign of dominance since taking this event down last year. He’s made it through to the finals in each of the last two years, and has somehow managed to enter this week in even better form than ever before. He is my pick to win, but for my outrights’ sake, I hope I’m wrong!
Best of luck with your 2023 WGC Dell Match Play bets!
