My 2023 WGC-Dell Match Play Betting Card, OAD, and Bracket Predictions

Written By John Haslbauer on March 21, 2023 - Last Updated on March 22, 2023
dell match play bets

It’s a short week for research and a long week for the golfers. We have a five-day stretch of golf in store this week with group play for the 2023 WGC Dell Match Play teeing off Wednesday through Friday and ensuing rounds pushing through Sunday. It’s not quite the same atmosphere of a Ryder Cup, but I always look forward to the change of pace that comes with Dell Match Play bets.

Match Play is inherently volatile, but we can usually identify trends in players who suit the course at Austin Country Club, or who thrive under the pressure of the Match Play format, where others have struggled to. Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2023 WGC Dell Match Play bets as well.  


I have not had a ton of success betting this event in the past, which is probably to do with the fact that I’ve often halved my outright exposure between this event and the Corales Championship running opposite. This year, we’re switching things up and going full boar at both with 3U in to pay 24U out at each. Event history has proven pretty sticky for this unique Match Play format, so I’m prioritizing players in weaker opening groups who have shown proven results in past WGC Dell Match Play events, or the most recent Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup.

Check back on Wednesday for more thoughts and strategy on Corales Championship bets.

For Austin Country Club course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past WGC Dell Match Play winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our WGC Dell Match Play odds page.

Editor’s Note


Jon Rahm

My Bet: +1400

Best Odds Still Available:

Jon Rahm was the consensus best player in the world after round one of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Four rounds (and one stomach bug) later, a gap has suddenly been placed between Rahm and Scheffler. Although Rahm has not yet won this event, he’s reached the Quarterfinals as many times as Scheffler has (twice). To me, Rahm and Scheffler are World No. 1A and 1B at the moment, so I’ll take the rare opportunity to bet Rahm at double-digit odds in a limited field. Who could forget the last time Rahm was forced to prematurely withdraw from an event due to illness, he won the 2021 U.S. Open.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

With Rahm on the card, we’ll need to skip straight to the longshots to round out the outright exposure this week. Hoge will need to do what Takumi Kanaya did last year and get out of Xander Schauffele’s opening group. After just breaking the course record at TPC Sawgrass, I think Hoge is capable of keeping that momentum going at another short Dye venue this week.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Matt Fitzpatrick could not have looked much worse at last week’s Valspar Championship, and as he continues to nurse a neck injury, I’m looking at his Full Swing co-star as the presumptive favorite to advance. Theegala’s aggressive style of play should suit Match Play well, as demonstrated over his illustrious college career.

Si Woo Kim

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

The Pete Dye assassin has escaped group play once before at the WGC Dell Match Play, and has a path to do so again versus Hovland, Kirk, and Kuchar. Kim led the International Team in points at 2022 Presidents Cup with a 3-1-0 record, and now enters a venue far better suited for his game.

KH Lee

My Bet: +14000

Best Odds Still Available:

Like Kim, KH Lee also impressed in his Presidents Cup debut, going 2-1-0 for the International Team and beating the 2021 WGC Dell Match Play champion Billy Horschel in his singles match. Lee has two wins in the state of Texas over the last two years and enters in solid form after a T19 finish last week’s Valspar Championship. Drawing Cantlay’s group has driven Lee beyond 100-1 odds, but Cantlay has not advanced from group play in his first two appearances at this event, so there is a path for Lee to advance.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

I did not base my outright card solely on Presidents Cup Match Play performance, but Bezuidenhout’s 1-0-1 record with a singles win over 2019 Match Play champion Kevin Kisner is still notable at this price. A short positional course which rewards hot putting is a perfect set up for CBez, who has finished top-15 at the first two short Pete Dye courses he’s seen this season at The AmEx and THE PLAYERS.


My Pick: Scottie Scheffler

The best player in the world enters this event as the defending champion (and finalist the year before), coming off a win in his previous start at THE PLAYERS, in front of a home crowd just miles away from his college campus. Oh, he’s also drawn a soft opening group and has one of the largest purses of the year at stake in a limited field. I get that Match Play is a volatile format, but there is quite literally no reason I can think of to fade Scottie in One And Done this week. If I’m wrong, at least my outrights will have a chance.

If not Scheffler, I would also consider Tyrrell Hatton, Jon Rahm, or Corey Conners.




Group 1

No. 1 Scottie Scheffler; No. 1 model rank

No. 17 Tom Kim; No. 22 model rank

No. 38 Alex Noren; No. 52 model rank

No. 54 Davis Riley; No. 56 model rank

My Pick: Scottie Scheffler

Tom Kim versus Scottie Scheffler is going to be a fun watch, but there’s not much firepower in this group overall to test the World No. 1, so I’ll take the chalk here.

Group 16

No. 16 Sungjae Im; No. 4 model rank

No. 24 Tommy Fleetwood; No. 13 model rank

No. 43 JT Poston; No. 33 model rank

No. 58 Maverick McNealy; No. 44 model rank

My Pick: Sungjae Im

Sungjae was the biggest riser in my model this week, climbing to No. 4 overall. It’s clear his game suits a shorter course like Austin Country Club, and had he not been set up to face Scheffler in the next round, he would have made it onto my betting card as well.

Group 8

No. 9 Collin Morikawa; No. 28 model rank

No. 32 Jason Day; No. 8 model rank

No. 44 Adam Svensson No. 50 model rank

No. 51 Victor Perez; No. 64 model rank

My Pick: Collin Morikawa

I think Jason Day will be a popular selection out of this group, considering he’s finished top-20 in six consecutive events now and Morikawa has looked lost with the putter. But similar to a guy like Sergio Garcia, Collin’s putting woes seem to go away in Match Play. He should thrive on a short course, and continues to strike it well.

Group 9

No. 8 Viktor Hovland; No. 10 model rank

No. 28 Chris Kirk; No. 20 model rank

No. 34 Si Woo Kim; No. 26 model rank

No. 59 Matt Kuchar; No. 41 model rank

My Pick: Si Woo Kim

There is some sneaky depth in this group, with three players inside my model’s top-26. The “worst” player in the group, Matt Kuchar leads the field in career Sweet 16 appearances at Austin Country Club, so there are no easy outs. I’ll side with the Pete Dye specialist here though, who’s looked great in 2023 since posting a 3-1-0 record in the Presidents Cup.


Group 4

No. 4 Max Homa; No. 11 model rank

No. 18 Hideki Matsuyama; No. 18 model rank

No. 42 Kevin Kisner; No. 63 model rank

No. 63 Justin Suh; No. 39 model rank

My Pick: Kevin Kisner

The No. 63 model ranking for Kisner is a very fair one, as he continues to display the worst form of his career. But, he could play this course with his eyes closed, leading the field with three career finals appearances at this event, so I’ll differentiate my bracket y chasing event history for the Match Play specialist.

Group 13

No. 12 Jordan Spieth; No. 25 model rank

No. 21 Shane Lowry; No. 31 model rank

No. 47 Taylor Montgomery; No. 30 model rank

No. 50 Mackenzie Hughes; No. 58 model rank

My Pick: Jordan Spieth

I don’t see a ton of resistance for Spieth in this group, as he’ll return home to Austin in great form coming off of two top-5s over his last three starts.

Group 5

No. 13 Sam Burns; No. 36 model rank

No. 30 Seamus Power; No. 19 model rank

No. 33 Adam Scott; No. 42 model rank

No. 53 Adam Hadwin; No. 16 model rank

My Pick: Adam Hadwin

The lowest seed in this group actually rates out the highest in my model here, so I’ll follow the numbers and back Hadwin here. He continues to improve OTT and is always a threat to catch a hot putter on Bermuda greens.

Group 12

No. 4 Patrick Cantlay; No. 7 model rank

No. 25 Brian Harman; No. 32 model rank

No. 35 KH Lee; No. 54 model rank

No. 55 Nick Taylor; No. 51 model rank

My Pick: KH Lee

This group should be a cake walk for Cantlay, but surprisingly he has never made it out of the group stage of this event before. So if that trend continues, I’ll side with Lee, who’s won in Texas in each of the last two years and comes in hot off of a T16 showing at the Valspar Championship.


Group 2

No. 2 Jon Rahm; No. 3 model rank

No. 22 Billy Horschel; No. 49 model rank

No. 39 Keith Mitchell; No. 21 model rank

No. 49 Rickie Fowler; No. 24 model rank

My Pick: Jon Rahm

This is a tough draw for Rahm, but assuming the stomach bug is behind him, I expect him to take care of business and advance.

Group 15

No. 15 Cameron Young; No. 15 model rank

No. 27 Sepp Straka; No. 48 model rank

No. 36 Corey Conners; No. 27 model rank

No. 57 Davis Thompson; No. 59 model rank

My Pick: Corey Conners

Not a ton of appealing options in this group, and I expect Conners to be a popular selection in this spot after taking third place in this event last year. While Young gets acclimated to his new caddie, I’ll take Conners’ ball striking consistency.

Group 7

No. 10 Tony Finau; No. 5 model rank

No. 19 Kurt Kitayama; No. 47 model rank

No. 45 Adrian Meronk; No. 60 model rank

No. 60 Christiaan Bezuidenhout; No. 57 model rank

My Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

This is a dream drawing for Finau, with all other players ranking outside the top-47 of my model. But even still, he’s struggled to take care of business in this event in the past. There are a few lowest seeds who will inevitably advance each year, so I like CBez’s chances coming off a strong T13 showing at THE PLAYERS in his last start.

Group 10

No. 7 Will Zalatoris; No. 17 model rank

No. 29 Ryan Fox; No. 37 model rank

No. 37 Harris English; No. 45 model rank

No. 56 Andrew Putnam; No. 46 model rank

My Pick: Harris English

It’s a very favorable drawing for the local Texan, Zalatoris, but I dare to be different, instead backing Harris English of the 2021 United States Ryder Cup team. His putter will be a great asset in this format, and his form is returning after a top-5 showing at the API.


Group 3

No. 6 Xander Schauffele; No. 6 model rank

No. 23 Tom Hoge; No. 12 model rank

No. 40 Aaron Wise; No. 55 model rank

No. 64 Cam Davis; No. 29 model rank

My Pick: Tom Hoge

Xander broke the hearts of many at the 2022 Match Play, a community bet in the softest opening group of the tournament. I still hold a grudge for his early exit, but also love Hoge’s prospects at this short Dye course after just setting the course record at TPC Sawgrass.

Group 14

No. 11 Matt Fitzpatrick; No. 38 model rank

No. 26 Sahith Theegala; No. 43 model rank

No. 41 Min Woo Lee; No. 40 model rank

No. 61 JJ Spaun; No. 53 model rank

My Pick: Sahith Theegala

A tough scene in this group with no players placing inside the top-35 of my model. Fitzpatrick looks to be in the worst form of the 1-seeds leading in, so by process of elimination, I’ll go with my heart and back Theegala to advance.

Group 6

No. 14 Tyrrell Hatton; No. 2 model rank

No. 31 Russell Henley; No. 35 model rank

No. 46 Lucas Herbert; No. 62 model rank

No. 62 Ben Griffin; No. 14 model rank

My Pick: Tyrrell Hatton

It’s tough to hold much conviction in the Match Play format, but Hatton advancing out of this group looks like the most sure bet on the board. He’s in excellent form, ranking No. 2 in my model, he’s drawn a weak group of opponents, and he’s advanced to the round of 16 three times before already.

Group 11

No. 3 Rory McIlroy; No. 9 model rank

No. 20 Keegan Bradley; No. 23 model rank

No. 48 Denny McCarthy; No. 34 model rank

No. 52 Scott Stallings; No. 61 model rank

My Pick: Rory McIlroy

There’s been plenty of chatter around Rory’s equipment issues this week, but I’m not getting cute with this one. This is not an imposing group to challenge McIlroy, even if he uses this week to experiments with some new clubs in the bag.

In closing, as much as I hold out hope for some surprise runs from the longshots in this oft volatile format, all signs point towards Scottie Scheffler continuing his reign of dominance since taking this event down last year. He’s made it through to the finals in each of the last two years, and has somehow managed to enter this week in even better form than ever before. He is my pick to win, but for my outrights’ sake, I hope I’m wrong!

Best of luck with your 2023 WGC Dell Match Play bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

View all posts by John Haslbauer