My 2022 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Card And Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on May 4, 2022
Wells Fargo Championship bets

The Wells Fargo Championship brings another week of variety on the PGA TOUR. It takes a one year break from its usual stop at Quail Hollow and instead reintroduces us to TPC Potomac for the first time since 2018. Below, you’ll find all the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship bets I’ve placed.

Most in the field haven’t played this course. But, we’ve seen enough from two years of PGA TOUR action here to deduce that ball striking with an emphasis on driving accuracy, plus the ability to play patiently will key contention. Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Wells Fargo Championship bets as well.

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HOW I BUILT MY WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

Before odds hit the market, I had a very clear gut feeling that I would bet three players: Keegan Bradley, Cameron Young and Cam Davis. Fortunately, they each came in at even longer odds than I  would have expected. That made my life much easier when filling out a complete outright card on Monday. Beyond those three must-haves, the prerequisites I looked for this week were consistent, elite skills off the tee, bogey avoidance, and proven results on comparable difficult scoring venues. Ultimately, I ended up with a mix of seasoned veterans and young budding stars with high upside.

In terms of unit allocation, it’s business as usual for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Corey Conners

My Bet: +2200

Best Odds Still Available:

At the Mexico Open last week, Jon Rahm occupied the top spot of everyone’s model. This week, despite the short odds on Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners jumped to the top spot for me. At triple the odds of McIlroy, I’m perfectly content with the value. Conners ranks top 10 in this field in SG: OTT, SG: T2G, Good Drives Gained, Prox 200+, P4: 450+ and SG: TOT (Difficult Conditions). He has plenty of avenues to success on this perfect course fit, which will give an edge to consistent players off the tee, and take an edge away from other putting specialists.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +3700

Best Odds Still Available:

If you like Corey Conners, then by default you should also feel pretty good about Keegan Bradley. He shares the same tee-to-green prowess, and has only been held back by the flat stick. That should proves less impactful this week. As an added bonus for Bradley compared to Conners, he should feel comfortable in the cool, windy forecasted conditions, as he hails from Vermont. His most recent win on the PGA TOUR came at the 2018 BMW Championship just west of Philadelphia. He has also found success on this course, as he finished T5 in his only prior appearance while ranking second in the field in SG: T2G.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’ve known I was going to like Cameron Young here and blindly bet him since making him my spotlight player of the week on Sunday. I did not foresee him opening this far down the odds board, or consequently becoming a consensus bet this week, however. His T3 finish at the RBC Heritage has quickly changed the old narrative of Young as a one dimensional bomber. At this point, we’ve seen him contend at the Sanderson Farms, Genesis Invitational and RBC Heritage, all within his rookie season. It’s time we start to believe in the hype. We want elite off the tee, and Young ranks No. 2 overall in this field in SG: OTT over the last 36 rounds. He gained 4+ strokes off the tee in five of his last six starts. That is Rory-esque! Returning to familiar Bentgrass greens, Young looks a dangerous presence in this field if he can continue his form as the No. 1 player SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds.

Kevin Streelman

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I rarely get excited about playing Kevin Streelman, but he checks all the boxes at TPC Potomac. He’s an experienced veteran who plays patiently and thrives on positional golf courses that reward consistency and accuracy off the tee. From a SG: OTT standpoint, Streelman ranks No. 17 in this field, and carries an impressive streak of 12 consecutive events with a positive number there. Streelman also has excellent course history, matching the course record in 2018 with a 62. He posted finishes of T17 and T32 in his first two appearances here. Combine that with his win at The Travelers at TPC River Highlands — the top comp course to TPC Potomac — and we may actually have reason to get excited about him.

Cam Davis

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I love Cam Davis this week. While he’s begun to pick up a little steam, I still think his fit for this course has flown under the radar. Davis ranks No. 6 in SG: OTT on courses under 7,200 yards and No. 9 in SG: P on Bentgrass. He should maneuver around this course well across the holes that require accuracy over distance off the tee. Beyond the OTT and Putting highlights, his irons have rounded into form, having gained strokes on approach in three consecutive measured rounds. Coming off a T3 at the RBC Heritage in which he gained across all four SG categories, Davis can tap into that same positional game to find success at TPC Potomac.

Martin Laird

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Martin Laird rated No. 8 overall in my model this week. That borders on must-bet territory when you open at over 100-to-1 odds. He ranks top 10 in SG: APP, SG: T2G, Fairways Gained, Good Drives Gained and Prox: 175+, which makes for a perfect profile at TPC Potomac. Additionally it doesn’t take much guesswork to project how that will translate there. He already posted a T3 finish in his 2017 debut here. Despite his significant struggles on the greens in 2022, we can draw some encouragement from the fact that Laird gained 3.8 strokes putting on these same greens in 2017.

Ryan Armour

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

I tweeted on Monday morning that a 200-to-1 Ryan Armour belongs on most everybody’s Wells Fargo Championship bets this week. A few days later, and you can still get 200-to-1, despite plenty of talk and a rise to the top of everyone’s key stats models. In my model, Armour rated out No. 4 overall, as he ranks top-15 in SG: OTT, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained, Prox 200+, P4: 450+, and Course History. I understand it’s never a slam dunk to play Armour, but considering he finished second in his only other appearance at TPC Potomac, I feel fine dabbling in odds this long.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sepp Straka

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Sepp Straka is egregiously priced in the mid-$7K range on DraftKings, so I unfortunately had to fade him in DFS despite the strong course fit and hot recent form. That said, I love the FRL market to still get some cheap exposure to the Honda Classic champion. He has the tools, especially with his putting, to post a low Thursday number.

Troy Merritt

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Unlike Straka, I’ll own plenty of Merritt in DFS. With that said, I couldn’t squeeze him in anywhere else on my betting card, so the 80-to-1 FRL odds will do for the No. 2 putter on Bentgrass in this field. Merritt is an accurate player who’s trending at the right time with a T12 and T4 in his two previous starts entering this week.

Russell Knox

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Driving accuracy and ball striking are the buzzwords this week. Knox has been a model of consistency in both areas in 2022, ranking top 10 in each. The putter has kept him from serious contention, but he’s shown enough signs of life to at least get hot for one round. On this course, a 65 may suffice for the first-round lead.

Branden Grace

My Bet: +14000

Best Odds Still Available:

I noticed a random trend that I’ll test with Grace this week. Most players who have found unexpected success at Muirfield Village have also delivered strong results at TPC Potomac. David Lingmerth has a win at the Memorial, and both a Web.com Tour win and T5 at TPC Potomac. Kyle Stanley, the 2017 Quicken Loans National champion here, has three career T10s at the Memorial. Ryan Armour has two T25s at the Memorial and a runner-up at TPC Potomac. Less random, but 2018 Quicken Loans champion Francesco Molinari has a T3 at the Memorial in one of his two career appearances.

So I went to the 2021 Memorial leaderboard. I searched for the first random name I could find: Branden Grace, T4. At 140-to-1 first round leader odds, let’s see how this goes!

Kramer Hickok

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

Playing the comp course angle, Kramer Hickok finished highest at the 2021 Travelers Championship, losing in a playoff to Harris English. He profiles as a great and accurate player off the tee, with the rest of his game coming and going. Why not take a shot at 180-to-1 FRL odds?

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PROPS (3 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Keegan Bradley vs Abraham Ancer

My Bet: Keegan Bradley +100 (placed at BetMGM)

Abraham Ancer has not finished inside the top 30 in a full PGA TOUR event in over six months. I’ve given up trying to understand why he’s a popular bet and DFS play at short odds and a high price. Instead I’ll just bet against him in this matchup versus Keegan Bradley.

The argument for Ancer: he plays short, positional courses well and has seen success at this course with a top-five finish at the 2018 Quicken.

Well, Bradley can say the same. And he has a top five of his own at this event and finishes of T5 at THE PLAYERS and T12 at the Sony Open on more recent positional courses. He also has three top-11 finishes in his last four starts, so he gets a major edge in recent form.

Top-20 Finish: Cam Davis

My Bet: +410

Best Odds Still Available:

I will live or die with Cam Davis this week, and I’m happy to bite on relatively long odds for a T20 on a player whose game suits shorter, positional, Bentgrass courses. It’ll be interesting to follow how aggressively he tries to attack this course, but he should position himself to generate ample birdie opportunities.

Top-20 Finish: Lucas Glover

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

Lucas Glover was one of the odd men out from my outrights. He rated No. 9 in my model, which deserves a T20 flier at the very least. Glover rated out top 50 in every single key stat category I ran this week, which makes sense for an experienced veteran with consistent ball striking form. Most encouraging for Glover is his return to Bentgrass. He ranks a respectable 38th in this field SG: P on Bent, aided by his 2021 John Deere Classic victory.

Top-20 Finish: Ryan Armour

My Bet: +600

Best Odds Still Available:

Last but not least, we end with the star of the week, Mr. Armour. Obviously any time we over-expose on Armour we set ourselves up for danger. But the profile fit looks great, and +600 odds won’t prevent me from taking another shot in the finishing position market. Armour has two T20s in his last six starts and now steps up to an ideal course fit. The +600 T20 odds actually sound like a pretty nice value.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Cameron Young

I’ve reached a point in the OAD season where I do need to get cute with my picks to differentiate, gain some ground, and crawl out of the five-month hole I’ve dug. Ironically, while Young is one of the most popular bets and DFS plays of the week, this mainly stems from mispricing. So I don’t expect people to jump on him this week in OAD. I’m really excited about his prospects on a Bentgrass course with emphasis on strong off-the-tee play, so I’ll take my chances using him here.

If not Young, I would also consider Corey Conners, Kevin Streelman, and Keegan Bradley.

THE BETTING CARD: WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

That’ll do it for Wells Fargo Championship bets. Best of luck this week, and see you on Sunday for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Preview!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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