With the first College Football Playoff ranking committee release coming Oct. 30, it’s a good time to look at CFB futures.
Last week saw four college football top 10 teams fall (as well as pseudo-contenders Wisconsin and Miami).
This, of course, caused some futures movement among potential contenders.
In Vegas, some losses are weighted heavier than others. For a team like the Georgia Bulldogs, there was little impact on their overall title odds after their road loss to LSU (+600 before, +800 after). However, for Wisconsin (+8000 to +30000), Penn State (+5000 to +50000) and Washington (+3000 to +30000), their losses propelled them to “historic longshot” status.
Bettors saw shrinking value on title odds for teams that did survive the weekend carnage, like Ohio State and Clemson (now +500 and +400, respectively).
While CFB Week 8 doesn’t have the volume of top 25 clashes as last Saturday, let’s look at some match-ups that could move futures.
Looking into the futures
This weekend’s marquee match-up pits two ACC undefeateds against each other, with #16 NC State (+30000) traveling to #3 Clemson (+400).
While a loss may not take Clemson totally out of the title picture, it would certainly do so for NC State. If you have a hard time though comprehending how a doofus goofball like Dabo Swinney continues to field and successfully coach elite teams, grab NC State now. While there’s a better chance of Swinney decoding a dinosaur genome than NC State beating Alabama or Georgia for a national title, that +30000 future will certainly go down with a win against Clemson.
LSU, fresh off its ultimately meaningless home win against UGA, now sits at #5 in the polls. If you’re looking for some precedence of what an NC State win at Clemson could do to their title odds, LSU just experienced that jolt, going from +10000 to +4000 in a week. However, a trip up in a certain let-down game against #22 Mississippi St. would give the Tigers two losses and essentially knock them out of the title conversation.
The last game with realistic futures implications is a suddenly strong looking #6 Michigan (+2500) at #24 Michigan St. (+100000). Like LSU, Michigan is a one-loss team with no margin for error. Two losses would be a nail in the coffin for Michigan’s title chances, while a win wouldn’t really move that +100000 on Michigan St.
But what does Vegas really think?
The Westgate’s power ratings are a good indicator as to what Vegas really thinks about college teams.
Clemson sits at #2 in the power ratings (a full 11 points behind ‘Bama), but still significantly ahead of NC State at 25. FiveThirtyEight only gives NC State a 16% chance of winning the game, which again makes this match-up the most likely to move futures with an upset.
Vegas also considers Michigan (#4 power rating) and LSU (#7) much stronger than Michigan St (#20) and Mississippi (#21). However, Michigan St will be at home, and anything can happen in rivalry matchups.