Week 7 NFL Underdogs: Betting Value On Enormous Spreads?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 24, 2021

Beginning with Broncos at Browns on Thursday night, there’s plenty of value to be had with Week 7 NFL underdogs.

Let’s break down how to find which dogs are barking, including pregame spreads, teasers and live bets.

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns

After opening at Browns -6.5 on Sunday night, the spread has dipped as many as five points because of Cleveland’s injury report, which includes Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr. Teasing Denver above a touchdown is the best approach for this one.

Potential Underdog Angle: Broncos teaser leg (+7.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Broncos

Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers

Many will look to tease the Packers under a field goal, but there’s value the other way too. Monitor Washington‘s injury report, as Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are banged up. If they suit up, Ron Rivera’s team should be in position to expose a leaky Packers defense without star cornerback Jaire Alexander.

Potential Underdog Angle: Football Team teaser leg (+14 or better)
Best Available Line: Washington

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Couple the Titans‘ Monday night win with their defense losing its No. 1 cornerback Caleb Farley (knee) to injured reserve, and there might even be value with the Chiefs.

Conclusion: Pass

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

As long as Dolphins cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are active, Brian Flores’ bunch represents another sound teaser option above a key number.

Potential Underdog Angle: Dolphins teaser leg (+8.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Dolphins

New York Jets at New England Patriots

In case you’re tired of teasers, here’s another! Coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Cowboys, the Patriots‘ defense should be all over rookie Zach Wilson for the second time this season.

Potential Underdog Angle: Pass, but potential teaser leg on the favorite
Best Available Line: Patriots

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants

With the Giants likely playing without Saquon Barkley and Ka’Darius Toney, I can’t even get myself to bet against Sam Darnold.

Conclusion: Pass

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Ever since cornerback Jimmy Smith returned to the Ravens‘ secondary in Week 3, they’re allowing the sixth-fewest expected points added (EPA) per play. EPA is determined by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the end result.

Joe Burrow & Co. appear to be the square underdog of the week.

Conclusion: Pass

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams

This game includes the first of my NFL Week 7 best bets.

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

Considering the Eagles‘ last three losses have come against the Buccaneers, Chiefs and Cowboys, Nick Sirianni’s team is a bit undervalued in the betting market. If the spread remains at Raiders -3, I’ll be willing to back Jalen Hurts.

Potential Underdog Angle: Eagles +3 or live bet
Best Available Line: Eagles

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals

The second of my best bets comes via this matchup. Brace yourself.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With rookie Justin Fields under center, the Bears are producing the seventh-fewest EPA per dropback. Despite the Buccaneers‘ depleted secondary, there’s not enough production to bet Matt Nagy’s crew.

Conclusion: Pass

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

Expecting the Colts to stay within a possession against Kyle Shanahan’s well-rested team might be too much to ask for, but the rainy conditions could sway me the other way. Frank Reich’s ground game should have enough success with Jonathan Taylor to at least hang within a teaser.

Potential Betting Angle: Colts +3.5 or better
Best Available Line: Colts

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

With Russell Wilson (hand) on injured reserve, Geno Smith ranks dead-last in total quarterback rating (QBR) under pressure. Now, he’s going up against a healthy Saints defense off a bye week. The Seahawks aren’t among the Week 7 NFL underdogs I’m interested in backing.

Conclusion: Pass

Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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