After a poor performance in Week 5, our crew bounced back with a 3-2 mark. Below are five Week 7 NFL bets (against the spread) to help guide you through your handicapping process. There’s also a pair of wagers for a particular awards market.
TheLines Staff NFL Week 7 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join our Discord betting channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 7 Bets
Stephen Andress: Surprise!
I truly do not like any spread on the board enough this week to call one my favorite bet. The margins are very tight. With that being said, I have bet Jags -2.5, Jets +3.5 (may come back on Denver to try and middle this number if the New York closes a favorite) and will add Eli’s favorite Commanders if I can get +4.5.
So let’s talk about my favorite bets of the week in the NFL futures markets. I have been eyeing the Offensive Player of the Year market for weeks now, waiting for the right time to fire. With three quarterbacks (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson) all shorter than +1500, there is some value for running backs and wide receivers down the board.
That’s because voters have increasingly stopped giving this award to QBs. In 2019, Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback in the past five seasons to win it — a year in which he went scorched earth and also won MVP with 5,000 yards and 50 touchdown passes.
Josh Allen is the only QB with this ceiling in his range of outcomes in 2022. Jalen Hurts is not even on pace for 40 total TDs, and he’s the favorite? This is the definition of a vulnerable favorite.
I’ve added two bets for this award into my account. First, the current receiving yards leader in Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill, who sits on top despite missing his starting QB for a few weeks. At +1600, he’s also double the price of his fellow top-WR candidates.
Secondly, new 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey. In the most putrid offense in the NFL, CMC still ranks fourth in total scrimmage yards. As a truly remarkable dual-threat talent, he will now have a chance to put up monster numbers under Kyle Shanahan.
At +5000 in his new environment Friday morning, he was mispriced. He’s currently . A half-unit on each of these is a good entry point into this market.
Eli Hershkovich: Colts (+2.5) at Titans
You can find my explanation for this wager in my Week 7 NFL bets column.
Mo Nuwwarah: Broncos (+1) vs. Jets
Early in the week on Beat The Closing Line, I recommended a wager on the Broncos at -2.5, though I hadn’t personally locked in my bet yet. Right after that, we learned that Russell Wilson claims to be dealing with a hamstring injury that has sapped some of his effectiveness, along with ongoing struggles with his shoulder.
When word that Brett Rypien could draw the start began to spread, the line shifted toward the Jets. Now, they are favored in some spots.
I think this whole situation has created an even better opportunity to play Denver, which I did at +1 but would also do at -1 if that’s what your sportsbook of choice is dealing.
First, I’m a bit skeptical of these Wilson injury claims. He looked perfectly spry and actually scrambled for several first downs in the second half of that game against the Chargers. As I heard on one NFL podcast this week, this smells like his agent leaking excuses to reporters in the wake of his poor play.
But even with that play, Denver has consistently moved the ball this year. They just haven’t punched in many TDs. That could change at any time.
On the other side of the ball is where I see a real edge for the Broncos, though. The Jets have a three-game winning streak cooking in which they really haven’t done much on offense besides pound the rock. At some point, Zach Wilson is going to need to make some throws. On the road against a top-tier Denver defense looks like a likely spot, and I don’t think he’s going to succeed. This unit has been awesome and I think they’ll shut the Jets down.
Brett Gibbons: Bears at Patriots (u40)
The Bears field one of the most inept offenses in the NFL. Second-worst in scoring (15.5 points per game), second-lowest success rate (38.2%), and an overall underwhelming cast off offensive pieces make the Bears offense a tough watch. Justin Fields has been abysmal, completing less than 55% of his passes and leading the NFL in interception rate (nearly 5%!).
The Bears visit the Patriots in primetime on Monday Night Football. What could go wrong?
New England’s defense the last two games held the Lions (the then-NFL leaders in scoring) to zero points and the Browns (No. 6 in scoring) to just 15 — 9 of which came in garbage time. The usually-stout Pats defense has succeeded at confusing young and mistake-prone QBs like Fields.
The Patriots are No. 4 in the NFL in time of possession percentage while the Bears boast the second-lowest in that department. With a pair of methodical offenses on display — one of which is an affront to common decency — and at least one very good defense, there isn’t a plausible route to the Bears scoring points.
This game feels like an old fashioned crock-potting. New England controls the ball with the run, applies the brakes fully to Chicago’s offense, and you arrive at a low point total.
Did I mention this game is on primetime?
Evan Scrimshaw: Jets (+1) at Broncos
Going back to the Jets after three straight wins might feel risky, but with the uncertainty in Denver, it makes a lot of sense. The Broncos will either be playing an injured Wilson on a bad hamstring or Brett Rypien, who has made one career NFL start.
New York gets the fourth-highest pressure in the league while blitzing the second least, meaning that their front four will wreak havoc on the Broncos’ 27th-best Offensive Line by Adjusted Sack Rate. If it is a largely immobile Wilson, who’s a quarterback already known for taking too much bad sacks. With the Broncos having one of the least creative offenses in the league, the Jets will be able to identify passing downs easily and get home.
New York’s offense is a concern against the Broncos top-rated, but the one relative weakness for Denver is its run defense. Breece Hall should be able to keep finding some holes, and the Jets have been one of the more creative offenses so far. I don’t think New York will get too bogged down offensively, and that’s enough given the paucity of good options for the Broncos to score.
John Haslbauer: Giants (+3) at Jaguars
This is admittedly a homer pick by me, but I’m backing the Big Blue with three points against an unremarkable Jaguars team. This is obviously a fishy line with the 5-1 team being three-point dogs versus a 2-4 team without any significant roster changes on either side. I’m sure there are some advanced analytics I’m overlooking, but I’m not over thinking this one.
Giants fans will also remember this is the first time facing Doug Pederson since he notoriously tanked the final game of the 2020 season with the Eagles by pulling Jalen Hurts for Nate Sudfeld without reason. The Redskins (at the time) went on to win in primetime, as New York watched its playoff hopes go up in flames in dismay. So although this game may not seem like a rivalry, I expect a confident Giants team to show up and win this revenge game outright.