Eli’s Week 7 NFL Best Bets: Spread Picks For Lions At Ravens, Packers At Broncos

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 22, 2023

With NFL Week 7 odds nearing kickoff, this article guides bettors with price discovery and handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals across NFL betting sites. In particular, two lines stood out — juxtaposed to my numbers. They involve the Ravens vs. Lions and the Broncos vs. Packers. With that in mind, let’s examine my Week 7 NFL best bets for these two games.

Click any odds to place a bet at the best sports betting sites. The following numbers represent the best odds available in your state.

Detroit lions at Baltimore ravens

Speaking of price discovery, some bettors may be unaware of what the term means. As bets add up on the opening line, it jumpstarts this process. Bettors’ early action is used to alter the number. Sportsbooks could also follow the same script of operators deemed “market makers,” shifting their prices because a polarizing competitor shifted theirs. Needless to say, their liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to move the odds themselves, too.

As for the Ravens’ odds, they’ve readjusted to the look-ahead line of -3 after sitting at -2.5 when reopened on Sunday night. The best odds available are currently . Was the modification back to a key number warranted?

Making Sense Of The Lions

Entering the campaign, I power-rated Detroit as an above-average team. They’ve entered my top-10 rankings of late, boasting elite EPA per play on both sides. The offense is sustainable, albeit weaker this week without David Montgomery (ribs) at running back. Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring), the Lions’ rookie tailback, would bolster the backfield, yet it’s up against a Ravens defense that has yielded the seventh-lowest success rate on the ground in 2023. Baltimore’s proficiency in that department dates back to last season’s acquisition of All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith.

For context, this metric considers a play successful if it generates at least 50% of the necessary yards for a first down, 70% on a second down, and 100% on a third or fourth down.

But the Lions’ defense is the concern. All but one of their opponents’ passing attacks have scuffled in some fashion. In the opener, the Chiefs were without their premier receiver Travis Kelce — otherwise known as Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Kelce’s teammates Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore combined for -3.23 EPA per target, including a Toney drop that led to a Detroit pick-six. One may argue that isn’t exactly sustainable.

Additionally, four of their next five contests came against Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, and Desmond Ridder. Mayfield is the lone quarterback with an above-average adjusted EPA per play. However, he’s struggled against talented defensive fronts throughout his career, which continued against Detroit — thanks to 15 QB pressures. Overall, the Lions own the NFL’s eighth-ranked pressure rate (26.5%).

Will Ravens Reverse Course?

Not only has MVP QB Lamar Jackson generated above-league-average passing grades, but he’s also delivered the ninth-highest pressured catchable pass rate. It’s fair to note that first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken hasn’t witnessed his unit piece together complete games — both through the air and on the ground. In the first halves, Baltimore has manufactured a top-10 success rate and yards per play (YPP).

Conversely, the Ravens rank No. 30 or worse in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, this game is a get-right spot for their offense, considering Detroit’s potential regression and banged-up defensive backs. That is, as long as Monken isn’t conservative in the red zone and Baltimore’s pass-catchers don’t accrue a handful of drops. The latter occurred against the Steelers in Week 5 — three of them for would-be scores.

If John Harbaugh’s receivers didn’t melt down in Pittsburgh, this game would be lined over a field goal. Bettors are getting a discount as a result. Don’t buy the Jared Goff hype.

Final Thoughts

Although I snagged Baltimore -2.5, I’d still back -3 for the first of my NFL best bets. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to get an alert when I first place a bet. Head to the #roles server to enroll in the push notifications.

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Green Bay Packers at Denver broncos

Offseason Hoopla For Not

Whether bettors targeted a divisional longshot or media-driven hype, neither team has lived up to its possible ceiling. Jordan Love is at the forefront of Green Bay’s shortcomings. Excluding his Week 1 performance versus the Bears’ bottom-barrel secondary, he ranks No. 25 in EPA per dropback in that stretch. Ridder, Young, Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones are the lone names behind him. Need I say more?

Granted, Denver’s defense hasn’t been considered much different than the Bears. For the record, it’s cost me four losing wagers. However, I’ve upgraded this unit in my power ratings with safety Justin Simmons back in the fold after missing 2.5 games. The return of run-stuffing nose tackle D.J. Jones somewhat negates Packers do-it-all tailback Aaron Jones’ (hamstring) rearrival.

Meanwhile, Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry has watched his run defense match its bottom-10 standing in recent years. The absence of linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (ankle) hasn’t helped. Couple that with the Broncos’ offensive line churning out the NFL’s third-best run-block win rate, and Javonte Williams & Co. should find success on the ground yet again. It will allow Denver to sustain its 32nd-ranked situation-neutral pace, too.

Final Thoughts

I’ll be the first to acknowledge the Broncos’ failure to meet the betting market’s expectations on a single-game basis. But that’s provided some value simultaneously, as the preseason look-ahead line favored Denver by 3.5 points. Sadly, I’m returning to the well for another bet on Sean Payton’s crew. Denver’s best moneyline odds are .

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If you’re in a state with legal sports betting, TheLines has you covered with the best sportsbook promo codes. First, click any promos and bonus codes to wager on your NFL best bets.

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