Week 7 College Football Best Bets: Will Either Underdog Cover In Top-25 Games?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 16, 2021

With a pair of top-25 matchups on Saturday, let’s break down where the value lies with my Week 7 college football best bets. Below, you’ll find my betting angles for each game, along with the perspective from the sportsbook.

No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 25 Texas Longhorns

As of Wednesday at PointsBet Sportsbook, 68% of the spread bets are expecting Texas () to bounce back from its 21-point blown lead against Oklahoma, but 62% of the handle is on Oklahoma State.

Steve Sarkisian’s offense is tied for the fifth-most yards per play (YPP) in college football, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Bijan Robinson, who’s tied with Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker for the most missed tackles (60) across Division I.

But keep in mind, the Pokes are yielding the 27th-lowest expected points added (EPA) per play. EPA is calculated by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the end result.

Oklahoma State linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez is one of the Big 12’s premier defensive playmakers, and he’ll be a part of the effort to limit Robinson from reaching the second level. Rodriguez & Co. are tied with No. 1 Georgia, restricting the opposition to just 1.2 red zone attempts per game.

On the other side of the ball, trusting the turnover-prone Spencer Sanders is a daunting task, but Mike Gundy’s passing attack is still generating a top-50 EPA. Texas’ secondary was exposed yet again by Oklahoma freshman quarterback Caleb Williams, and Sanders should have his opportunities to do the same.

Checking In At The Counter

“We opened a bit higher than the market here at Longhorns -6.5,” Motoi Pearson, a senior trader for WynnBET Sportsbook, said. “Our power rankings respect Texas regardless of that terrible finish against Oklahoma. We saw some steam on Oklahoma State immediately and took some bets there, but nothing major has happened since with Texas now at -6.”

Moreover, Pearson noted that the Longhorns will likely be one of WynnBET’s biggest liabilities of the day.

Eli’s Bet: Oklahoma State +5 (PointsBet — placed at 3pm ET on Wednesday, Oct. 12)
Best Available Line: Oklahoma State

No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia’s title-contending defense ranks first in both YPP and EPA, respectively, guided by stud defensive tackle Jordan Davis.

Although Kentucky ranks top 50 in both offensive categories, the only admirable defense it’s faced so far is No. 20 Florida. With the Bulldogs allowing the 13th-fewest EPA per carry, I’m expecting their front-seven to own the line of scrimmage while slowing down Wildcats tailback Christian Rodriguez in the process.

Meanwhile, Kirby Smart’s team struggles to find room on the ground, but the Wildcats’ biggest defensive liability is slowing down the opposing quarterback.

Smart said that signal caller J.T. Daniels (lat strain) is still on a “pitch count” at practice, and his status is unknown for this matchup. Whether Daniels or fellow QB Stetson Bennett starts under center, the Bulldog’s explosive passing attack (9.6 yards per attempt) should be primed for some chunk plays.

Both the ticket count (67%) and the overall handle (70%) are backing the underdog Wildcats (+22.5) at PointsBet. Rather than lay that many points, I’d rather look for a live spot to back the home favorite. Pearson’s team is approaching it a bit differently, though.

“As the first opener for this game, we showed a bit of respect for Kentucky at +21,” he said. “Kentucky moneyline seems juicy enough for some bettors to take a shot on. So, we’ll be expecting that as well. The total is now, but we opened at 43.5. We’re expecting a low-scoring game with two rugged defenses.”

Eli’s Potential Live Bet: Georgia -13.5 or better
Best Available Pregame Line: Georgia

Pearson’s Play: No. 13 Ole Miss at Tennessee

“Look for Ole Miss to showcase that offense with Matt Corral against the Vols,” WynnBet’s Motoi Pearson told TheLines. “Tennessee has been excellent against some lowly teams, like Missouri and South Carolina, but they’ll be matched in talent here. I’ll lay the points with Kiffin’s crew.”

Pearson’s Week 7 College Football Best Bets: Ole Miss -3 (CLAIM A WYNNBET SPECIAL OFFER NOW)
Best Available Line:

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