Kicking off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday, there are plenty of Week 6 NFL underdogs that you should be targeting. Let’s explore the variety of ways to bet them, but be sure to keep an eye on injuries as the week rolls along.
Week 6 NFL Underdogs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
We don’t know whether Tom Brady’s thumb injury will impact his efficiency, but this matchup boils down to the Eagles’ fourth-ranked pash rush win rate against the Buccaneers’ 20th-ranked pass block win rate.
The spread is below a key number at most sportsbooks, so I’m going to bet Philadelphia once it ticks back up or closer to game time. Either way, expect Jalen Hurts to continue to build off his Week 5 comeback performance against Tampa Bay’s banged-up secondary.
Potential Underdog Angle: Eagles +6.5 or better
Best Available Line: Eagles
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
Brian Flores’ inactives will determine whether I’m on the sideline for this one, as cornerbacks Xavien Howard (shoulder/groin) and Byron Jones (Achilles/groin) are banged up.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Although the Bears‘ arial attack is still limited with rookie Justin Fields, the Packers‘ passing defense is a liability without cornerback Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder). Chicago’s defense is also steadily improving, so there’s value in backing Matt Nagy’s team to stay within two possessions.
Potential Underdog Angle: Bears teaser leg (+10.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Bears
Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions
The pressure will be on Lions quarterback Jared Goff — with the Bengals‘ defense ranking No. 4 in expected points added (EPA) per carry. EPA is determined by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed to the end result.
Count me out on a short pregame line, but a live bet on Detroit could be in play.
Potential Underdog Angle: Lions live +10 or better
Best Available Line: Lions
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants
Scan the Giants‘ injury report, but with the way it’s currently positioned, I can’t trust an offense without potentially both Daniel Jones (concussion) and Saquon Barkley (ankle).
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team
Conclusion: Chiefs teaser leg (-0.5 or better)
Best Available Line:
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
After the Panthers opened as 1.5-point favorites, the market came back on the Vikings. Carolina’s defense is yielding the league’s fewest EPA per dropback, and it’ll assist with at least hanging around within a possession.
Potential Underdog Angle: Panthers teaser leg (+7 or better)
Best Available Line: Panthers
- More from Eli: College Football Week 7 best bets
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
Many have praised Chargers coach Brandon Stanley for his gutsy decision-making on fourth downs, but they’ve converted an unsustainable 87.5% of them to begin the season. Couple that with Los Angeles allowing the second-most EPA per carry, and the Ravens should control this game on the ground.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
This is one of the Week 6 NFL underdogs that was a part of my best bets column.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
I’m more optimistic about the Raiders‘ offense without Jon Gruden running the show, but they’ve still overachieved through the first five weeks. Moreover, the Broncos are allowing the fifth-fewest EPA per play.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
This game includes another one of my best bets.
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s team boasts the NFL’s fifth-highest pressure rate, and I wouldn’t buy into the little we saw from Geno Smith in the Seahawks‘ Week 5 loss.
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Sean McDermott’s defense is allowing the fewest EPA per carry, but their opponents have also been trailing quite a bit. I’d monitor the Titans‘ injury report, but as long as Julio Jones (hamstring) suits up, Tennessee seems like a play after the preseason look-ahead line was Bills -2.5.
Potential Underdog Angle: Titans +5.5 or better
Best Available Line: