Eli’s Week 6 NFL Best Bets: Spread Picks For Chiefs At Broncos, Eagles At Jets

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 14, 2023

With NFL Week 6 odds almost underway, this article guides price discovery and handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals across NFL betting sites. In particular, two lines stood out — juxtaposed to my numbers. They involve the Chiefs vs. Broncos and the Jets vs. Eagles. With that in mind, let’s examine my Week 6 NFL best bets for these two games.

Click any odds to place a bet at the best sports betting sites. The following numbers represent the best odds available in your state.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Some bettors may be unaware of the term price discovery. As bets pile up on the opening line, it initiates this process. Early action from gamblers is used to modify the odds. Sportsbooks could also follow the same script of operators that are “market makers,” modifying their prices because a polarizing competitor shifted theirs. Needless to say, their liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to move the odds themselves as well.

In this contest between AFC West odds, the Kansas City Chiefs’ odds are -10.5 and have stayed static from where they were on the look-ahead line. However, my numbers indicate that there should have been an adjustment — in favor of Denver Broncos odds.

Injuries Aplenty At Arrowhead

Unless you live under a rock, you probably know that Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is dealing with an ankle injury. Taylor Swift’s boyfriend was initially banged up against the Vikings on Sunday, yet he still accrued the highest EPA per route run among Chiefs pass-catchers. On a short week, ahead of a “mini-bye” and a more pressing matchup versus the Chargers, look for Kansas City to at least restrict Kelce’s snap count.

Granted, two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes is an explosive play waiting to happen, especially against Denver’s non-existent pass rush and exploitable secondary. That said, a limited Kelce would restrict those opportunities. Remember that Mahomes was tied for the fourth-fewest air yards among qualified quarterbacks versus a similarly rated Minnesota defense. That metric showcases how many yards the football travels in the air from the line of scrimmage, regardless of whether the pass was completed.

Additionally, Broncos nose tackle D.J. Jones (knee) is unlikely to suit up. Denver was gashed by Breece Hall and the Jets’ rushing attack in Week 5, but much of their success came after Jones’ exit. If the Chiefs utilize an identical plan with Isiah Pacheco & Co., this clock-milking script assists the double-digit underdog.

Will Turnovers Continue?

The Broncos rank No. 29 across the NFL in second-half points per drive (1.38). This trend reoccurred in the loss to New York. Fumbles haven’t helped their cause, either, racking up half of their total giveaways on the ground (6) in that contest. But the second department isn’t predictive — even for a QB in Russell Wilson, who palms the ball at one of the league’s highest rates. For all we know, a divisional game may breed positive variance for them.

On top of that, Wilson could benefit from a boost from his rushing attack. For one, Javonte Williams, Denver’s premier between-the-tackles option, is set to return from a quad injury. Couple that with a Chiefs defense that has surrendered the fourth-most EPA per carry. Therefore, the Broncos are equipped to operate methodically, behind the 12th-ranked run-block win rate, keeping Mahomes on the sideline.

Final Thoughts

There are better things to do on Thursday night than watching this game. Nevertheless, I’ve (regrettably) wagered on Denver for the first of my NFL best bets. Unless the Broncos have quit on head coach Sean Payton, expect a motivated showing — in a potential look-ahead spot for Kansas City.

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Philadelphia eagles at new york jets

For some bettors, Eagles odds are worth a weekly wager. After all, the defending NFC champs are off to another undefeated start. Their spread has risen from the 6.5-point look-ahead line to the key number of as of this publishing. But things aren’t so fine and dandy for the “Brotherly Shove” originators.

Stout Defense Awaits

Before last week’s ground-centric win over the Rams, Jalen Hurts ranked No. 17 in adjusted EPA per dropback and No. 22 in success rate, respectively. When Philadelphia has failed to establish its run game, the duel-threat QB has struggled. Whether that correlates to a poor job from first-year offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, opponents adapting to Hurts, or a combination of the two, he’s in for another stiff test.

Robert Saleh’s unit has yielded the fifth-fewest EPA per tote, thanks to nose tackle Quinnen Williams and one of the NFL’s best defensive fronts. Although the secondary has underperformed expectations, it’s projected to get healthier with the return of stud corner D.J. Reed (concussion), who didn’t suit up in Week 5. If the run defense delivers as anticipated, Hurts will face his fair share of pressure — literally — when aiming to air it out.

While Jets odds haven’t been a joy ride for their backers, New York owns the 12th-rated pressure rate. It’s blitzed at the seventh-lowest clip to boot. Even against an elite offensive line, Saleh’s creativity should generate an unusual result in the Eagles’ backfield. Hurts’ 24th-ranked completion percentage under pressure in 2023 speaks for itself.

Wilson Seeing Ghosts?

I wouldn’t be shocked. Including Wilson’s near-heroics versus the aforementioned Chiefs, he’s dead last in adjusted EPA per play. Philly possesses the edge in the trenches on this side of the ball, meaning that Wilson may be running for his life. But its defensive backfield has slipped up, surrendering an above-average EPA per dropback after sitting atop the league last season. Surprisingly, veteran cornerback Darius Slay is a significant part of the problem.

If New York play-caller Nathaniel Hackett peppers in enough quickly-timed routes, Wilson could tally an average outing. Assuming the rest of these notions come to fruition, the Jets can hang around within one possession.

Editor’s Note: On Friday’s injury report, Slay and Reed were both ruled out.

Final Thoughts

Despite the Cowboys’ blowout loss to the 49ers, they’re above the Eagles in my NFL power ratings. Like Kansas City, Philly is in a possible look-ahead spot, with the Dolphins up next. Hence, the Jets represent the second of my NFL best bets.

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