The Recency Report: NFL Week 4 Market Moves And Week 5 Lookahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on October 1, 2020 - Last Updated on October 2, 2020
Lookahead lines NFL Week 5 betting

The Lines is here to provide you additional sports betting resources and information you can bet on. That includes advance lookahead lines for the following week’s NFL games along with some of the weekly market moves, storylines and betting situations to assist you in your pursuit of profit.

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NFL Week 4 market movement

The scoring surge in the NFL continued in Week 3 as the 16 games averaged 52.5 points following Week 2 scoring of 53.3 points per game. The totals market is moving the most as sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel adjust their numbers and evaluate the weekly results.

There are eight Week 4 contests that have over/under totals of 51 points or more.

Some notable line moves since the Week 4 lines were released by FanDuel Sportsbook include:

  • Pittsburgh at Tennessee: This game has been rescheduled for later in the 2020 season after several Titans players and personnel members tested positive for COVID-19. The Titans were -2 on last week’s lookahead line but the Steelers moved to a 2-point favorite upon early week news and then the official league announcement.
  • Minnesota at Houston: Both teams are 0-3 to start the season and this line has ticked up to Texans -4 at DraftKings. The Vikings defensive deficiencies were on display again last week in their 31-30 loss to the Titans. The Vikings defense is allowing 440 yards per game to rank No. 30 in the league. Minnesota did rush for 226 yards in defeat and Dalvin Cook is No. 3 in league rushing while the Texans currently have the league’s worst rush defense, allowing 188 yards per game. Houston has played the toughest schedule in the league thus far, with losses to the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers.
  • LA Chargers at Tampa Bay: This line is holding steady at Buccaneers -7, but the lookahead line was -5. There’s movement on the total, which is down to 43 and may drop more. The Chargers lost at home as a favorite to the Panthers last week and bettors should pay attention to the Chargers’ QB situation as Tyrod Taylor could return with rookie Justin Herbert starting the last two games. Bettors believe either quarterback and the offense will struggle against the top-tier Bucs run defense and overall defense that ranks No. 2 in DVOA. Tampa Bay has won their last two games while opening up big leads in the first half.
  • NY Giants at LA Rams: It’s one-way action on the Rams, who are up to a 12.5-point favorite. Bettors want nothing to do with the Giants after another embarrassing blowout loss last week to the injured 49ers, 36-9. The Rams, meanwhile, nearly completed a miraculous comeback down 28-3 at Buffalo as they took the lead late in the fourth quarter before ultimately losing 35-32. With league-wide scoring exploding, the Rams are averaging 30 points per game while the Giants have yet to score 17 points in any of their three contests. The Giants offense is grounded without injured RB Saquon Barkley and as they adjust to a new system and coaching staff.

ALSO READ: Best NFL Week 4 offers from legal US sportsbooks

Week 5 lookahead lines and matchups

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions have byes in Week 5. The thing that jumps out on the advance lines for Week 5 is the number of large point spreads. Ten of the 15 games project the favorite to be 7-points or more with four games having double-digit point spreads. Three of those are division games.

Las Vegas at Kansas City: The Raiders opened 2-0 but hit a tough stretch in their schedule with the Patriots (loss), Bills and this key AFC West game at Kansas City before a Week 6 bye. The Chiefs showed why they are the Super Bowl champs and the favorite to repeat after blasting Baltimore 34-20 in Week 3. Kansas City has won 12-straight games leading into their Week 4 home game against the Patriots. The match-up against the Raiders should have a total above 55 points with QB Patrick Mahomes currently on a tear. Mahomes player props will be popular in this contest against a poor Raiders defense that is allowing 406 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play – which both rank bottom five in the league. Mahomes (+380) is just behind Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (+220) in the MVP odds at FanDuel.

New York Giants at Dallas: This game will be popular in the betting market despite the double-digit line. Former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett is now the offensive coordinator for the Giants, and New York likely enters this game 0-4. Dallas is currently 1-2 and under-achieving again despite an explosive offense that is averaging a league-high 490.7 yards per game. But the Cowboys scoring offense is No. 8 at 29.3 points per game. The NFC East is showing itself as the worst division in the NFL so far this season with the Cowboys (1-2) and Redskins (1-2) tied for first place. The Giants’ best chance for a win comes after facing the Cowboys when New York hosts Washington in Week 6.

NFL Week 5 Odds

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent line
Tampa Bay at ChicagoBuccaneers -3Buccaneers -3.5
Arizona at New York JetsCardinals -8.5 Cardinals -7
Carolina at AtlantaFalcons -3.5Falcons -2.5
Cincinnati at BaltimoreRavens -13Ravens -12.5
Jacksonville at HoustonTexans -7Texans -6.5
Las Vegas at Kansas CityChiefs -11.5Chiefs -11
LA Rams at WashingtonRams -9.5Rams -7
Philadelphia at PittsburghSteelers -7.5Steelers -7.5
Miami at San Francisco49ers -849ers -8.5
Indianapolis at ClevelandColts -2.5Browns -1
New York Giants at DallasCowboys -11.5Cowboys -7.5
Minnesota at SeattleSeahawks -9.5Seahawks -6.5
LA Chargers at New Orleans SaintsSaints -7.5Saints -7
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee TitansBills -3.5Bills -3.5

How to use lookahead lines

We’ll be updating the NFL advance lines each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendencies for many bettors is to overreact to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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