Week 4 NFL Underdogs: Teams To Consider Betting Against The Spread

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 3, 2021
Week 4 NFL Underdogs

We’re a few weeks into the NFL season, and there are still plenty of overreactions in the betting market. Let’s take a look at which Week 4 NFL underdogs present the most value.

Week 4 NFL Underdogs

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

The preseason look-ahead line for this game was Bengals -2.5, so the market has clearly downgraded the Jaguars considerably while conversely upgrading Cincinnati. Keep in mind, Zac Taylor’s team will be playing without wide receiver Tee Higgins (shoulder) for a second straight game.

Even with the Jaguars getting over a key number, I can’t back Trevor Lawrence until he refines his reads.

Conclusion: Pass

Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons

This spread has swung 2.5 points after the Falcons were one-point favorites on Sunday. Despite Washington’s defense ranking No. 28 overall in defensive DVOA (via Football Outsiders), I’m in agreement with the market.

Conclusion: Pass

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

We saw Davis Mills convert a two-minute drill into a touchdown in Houston’s Week 3 loss to Carolina. That’s it.

This line may be slightly inflated, but I’m not betting against a Bills defense that sits in the top four of most defensive metrics.

Conclusion: Pass

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Believe it or not, Dan Campbell’s team is 2-1 against the spread this season after its backdoor cover against the 49ers (+8.5) and a heart-breaking loss to the Ravens (+7.5). Plus, the market is backing the Lions this time around after the spread opened at Bears -6.

But Chicago could be in for an offensive bounce-back against a susceptible defense — regardless of who starts under center.

Conclusion: Pass

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets

We’ve arrived at our first bet, and you can read about it in my best bets column.

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

I’m starting to buy into the Cowboys’ defensive resurgence, while the Panthers have benefited from facing a rookie quarterback making his regular season debut, a Saints coaching staff affected by COVID-19 and, well, the Texans.

Carolina’s offense will also likely face a negative game script for the first time all season — without star running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring).

Conclusion: Pass

Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins boasts a top-10 completion percentage off play-action (70.8%), but Dalvin Cook & Co. won’t have an easy time on the ground against a stout rushing defense.

I’d need a better in-game number on the Vikings before backing them.

Potential Underdog Angle: Vikings live +3 or better
Best Available Line: Vikings

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

While the Colts faced a negative game script last week, their coaching staff still ran the seventh-highest pass-play percentage despite Carson Wentz‘s injured ankles. I won’t be backing Indianapolis for the time being.

Conclusion: Pass

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

This spread has shifted 2.5 points towards the Saints since the preseason look-ahead line, creating some value in New York. But monitor the Giants’ injury report before backing Joe Judge’s bunch, as wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both banged up.

Potential Underdog Angle: Giants +7.5 or better
Best Available Line: Giants

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

Consider this trend from a betting market standpoint: the Chiefs are 1-12-1 ATS over their past 14 games. Bettors are still backing them because of public perception despite an inflated line.

Nevertheless, the Eagles are too banged up on either side of the ball to trust.

Conclusion: Pass

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

If the aforementioned Lawrence didn’t gift the Cardinals a pick-six, Kliff Kingsbury’s team might not be undefeated. The market has also come back on the Arizona after the spread opened at Rams -6, so there’s little to no value left.

Conclusion: Pass

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

This game includes another one of my Week 4 best bets.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers

The Steelers are 9-3-1 ATS under Mike Tomlin, including four outright wins, as a six-plus point underdog.

Not only is Tomlin one of the premier rah-rah coaches in the league, but Pittsburgh is also expected to have wide receivers Dionte Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and All-Pro linebacker TJ Watt available for this game. As long as the injury report clears up, bet Pittsburgh in a potential letdown spot for Green Bay.

Potential Underdog Angle: Steelers +6.5
Best Available Line: Steelers

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

With this line already inside of a field goal, the ATS value with the Seahawks is gone. Consider them as a teaser leg instead.

Our Stephen Andress also brought up another intriguing angle on TheLines’ NFL Week 4 podcast (available Thursday afternoon).

Conclusion: Pass

New England Patriots @ Tampa Buccaneers

Don’t fall for the “bet what the sportsbook needs to end the night” among the NFL Week 4 underdogs. Even though the Buccaneers have secondary concerns, the Patriots’ 26th-ranked offensive DVOA speaks for itself.

Conclusion: Pass

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

After two overtime wins to start the season, you’d think the Raiders’ coin-flip luck would run out against the Chargers’ quick-strike offense. But Las Vegas could find success on the ground against a struggling rushing defense.

I’d need a decent in-game number to back Jon Gruden’s team, depending on the game script.

Potential Betting Angle: Raiders live +7.5 or better
Best Available Line: Raiders

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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