After going 4-1 with my plays last week (15-6 overall for 2021 NFL season), there’s only one direction we’re headed with my Week 4 NFL best bets: south.
Just kidding. Hopefully.
This time around, let’s dig into two games that have seen at least a four-point move against the spread since the preseason look-ahead lines.
That doesn’t mean that we’re always aiming to go against the market; the NFL is the most efficient betting market across all sports. But overreactions are still prevalent.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
We plugged our noses in Week 3, and we’re back at it again for Week 4 NFL best bets.
For starters, rookie Zach Wilson has generated the NFL’s lowest expected points added per dropback (EPA/dropback). EPA is measured by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the aftermath.
That’s even worse than what the Bears have pieced together with Justin Fields and Andy Dalton, and they tallied a single net passing yard against the Browns!
| Team | EPA/Dropback |
|---|---|
| ARI | 0.269 |
| ATL | -0.130 |
| BAL | 0.123 |
| BUF | 0.128 |
| CAR | 0.241 |
| CHI | -0.275 |
| CIN | -0.017 |
| CLE | 0.157 |
| DAL | 0.149 |
| DEN | 0.429 |
| DET | 0.017 |
| GB | 0.174 |
| HOU | 0.287 |
| IND | -0.054 |
| JAX | -0.174 |
| KC | 0.357 |
| LAC | 0.201 |
| LAR | 0.477 |
| LV | 0.257 |
| MIA | -0.139 |
| MIN | 0.305 |
| NE | -0.085 |
| NO | 0.166 |
| NYG | 0.111 |
| NYJ | -0.372 |
| PHI | 0.275 |
| PIT | -0.005 |
| SF | 0.317 |
| SEA | 0.213 |
| TB | 0.162 |
| TEN | 0.024 |
| WFT | 0.001 |
Let’s take Wilson’s struggles into context, though. The BYU product has matched up against defensive masterminds Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio, along with Phil Snow’s up-and-coming Panthers defense. Each of these teams also own a top-six opponents’ EPA/dropback.
Moreover, the Titans — Wilson’s next test — are tied for No. 18 in that department. They’ve even allowed the second-highest opponents’ EPA per rush attempt.
If the Jets muster any semblance of a ground game in the Meadowlands, they’ll set up Wilson to have his best performance as a pro yet. You can question New York’s offensive line minus left tackle Mekhi Bechton (knee), but Pro Football Focus grades Tennessee as the sixth-worst pass rushing unit.
On the other side, Robert Saleh’s defense (10th-best opponents’ EPA/carry) has the tools to stymie Derrick Henry and the league’s No. 10 overall EPA/carry. Plus, the Titans will likely be without wide receiver A.J. Brown (hamstring), who’s considered week-to-week with the injury.
Given the preseason look-ahead line was Titans -3.5, I’ll back the smelly home underdog above a key number.
Eli’s Pick: Jets +7.5 (PointsBet — placed at noon ET on Monday, Sept. 27)
Best Current Line: Jets
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
The aforementioned Fangio has delivered the NFL’s lone 3-0 against the spread record to Mile High, ranking top six in opponents’ EPA/play and success rate (SR).
A play is deemed successful if teams produce:
- 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
- 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
- 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down
But keep in mind, the Broncos have faced the Jets, Jaguars and Giants — all of which have produced a below-average red zone scoring percentage. Enter the Ravens, sitting No. 3 in that category.
Much of Baltimore’s offensive prowess begins on the ground, as Lamar Jackson & Co. place first in yards per rush attempt and boast the seventh-ranked EPA/rush. That’s setting up the duel-threat QB for NFL’s the fourth-highest play-action completion percentage (78.3%).
Although the Broncos’ pass defense is elite, they’re more susceptible against the run. The loss of outside linebacker Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle) should be a factor in this game.
Additionally, the Ravens’ own defensive struggles (No. 26 in opponents’ EPA/dropback) were mitigated with the return of cornerback Jimmy Smith, who’s elite in press coverage.
Teddy Bridgewater has attempted the third-most downfield pass attempts across the league, but there should be offensive regression coming against Baltimore’s strengthened secondary. Denver speedster KJ Hamler suffered a season-ending torn ACL as well, leaving Bridgewater without two of his top receivers in Hamler and Jerry Jeudy (IR, ankle).
John Harbaugh’s team was a three-point favorite on the preseason look-ahead line, and we’ll take the points yet again.
Eli’s Pick: Ravens +1.5 (DraftKings — placed at noon ET on Monday, Sept. 27)
Best Current Line: Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers
I hit on this game in my NFL Week 4 underdogs piece as well. With the Steelers‘ offense seemingly healthier, along with linebackers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith expected to play, we’re getting an inflated number.
While the 49ers’ front-seven couldn’t take advantage of the Packers‘ offensive line, the Steelers’ third-ranked pass rush (via PFF) should be a difference-maker with both David Bakhtiari (PUP, knee) and Elgton Jenkins (ankle) likely out.
Even with a limited Roethlisberger at the helm, give me the road underdog.
Eli’s Pick: Steelers +6.5 (PointsBet — placed at 5pm ET on Thursday, Sept. 27)
Best Current Line: Steelers
(Eli will be updating this post as he adds more bets to his own accounts. Check back for more of Eli’s Week 4 NFL best bets.)
