Favorites dominated the odds board in Week 14, going 11-3 against the spread. But underdogs still lead the way with an 109-95-1 ATS mark (53.4%) thus far. So which Week 15 NFL underdogs should bettors consider?
As the end of the regular season nears, we’re seeing the betting market overvalue numerous teams against ones that are fighting for a playoff berth. Let’s break down which angles you should consider, including spread and teaser picks.
Click on the odds below to place a bet now. You can also continue the discussion in TheLines betting community, as we dive into all of the games throughout the week.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Although I’m not backing the underdog, the favorite is actually undervalued. The Colts are allowing the fifth-lowest expected points added (EPA) per carry while Patriots tally the second-highest rushing percentage. That correlates to their positive game scripts, but we’ve yet to see Mac Jones face a two-score deficit or more during their winning streak.
- EPA is calculated by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the play’s conclusion.
These teams were neck-and-neck in my power rankings this go-around, and there’s value with Indianapolis here.
Week 15 NFL Underdogs Angle: Pass, but consider Colts -2.5 or better
Best Available Odds: Colts
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Over the Titans’ last four games — all without running back Derrick Henry — they’re generating the 10th-fewest EPA per play. Expect that regression to continue, as the Steelers should at least stay within a touchdown. If their defense is relatively healthy, they’re worth an ATS bet too.
Week 15 NFL Underdogs Angle: Consider Steelers ATS and teaser leg (+7 or better)
Best Available Odds: Steelers
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
As you’ll find in our NFL COVID-19 report, the Rams are affected on both sides of the ball. Does that mean the Seahawks win straight-up? Probably not, but Russell Wilson will have success versus this secondary minus Jalen Ramsey.
Week 15 NFL Underdogs Angle: Consider Seahawks teaser leg (+10.5 or better)
Best Available Odds: Seahawks
- Update: This game has reportedly been postponed until Tuesday, voiding teaser bets at most sportsbooks.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Surprisingly, the Buccaneers have struggled most against opposing ground games since their Week 9 bye, allowing the most EPA per carry. Not only has Sean Payton’s bunch has racked up the fourth-highest rushing percentage, but his defense has continually given Tom Brady fits like we saw in the Saints’ Week 8 upset win. Two scores is too many for New Orleans.
Week 15 NFL Underdogs Angle: Consider Saints (+11.5 or better)
Best Available Odds: Saints