Despite underdogs going 6-8 against the spread in the last go-around, they’re 106-84-1 ATS overall. So which Week 14 NFL underdogs present the most value? I’ve broken down each one that is worth backing, including teaser angles.
Click on the odds below to place a bet now. You can also continue the discussion in TheLines betting community, as we dive into all of the games throughout the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
There’s no value in the spread, but I dissected why I’m taking a piece of the total in our Thursday Night Football guide.
Week 14 NFL Underdogs Bet: Pass
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
With this matchup presenting one of the lowest total on the board, the correlation with Atlanta hanging around within a possession is evident. Moreover, I’m willing to trust the Falcons’ defense that’s allowing the fifth-fewest expected points added (EPA) per carry while taking my chances against the inaccurate Cam Newton.
- EPA is calculated by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the play’s conclusion.
Arthur Smith’s bunch is worth a look in a teaser for their rematch against the Panthers after falling in Week 8.
Week 14 NFL Underdogs Bet: Consider Falcons teaser leg (+8.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Falcons
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
The Broncos lost to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football despite out-gaining Kansas City in yards per play (YPP). Couple that with the market overvaluing the Lions after their first outright win, and I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from Denver while winning by at least a field goal in the process. This is also one of senior writer Mo Nuwwarah’s top-three NFL teaser legs for Week 14.
Week 14 NFL Underdogs Bet: Consider Broncos teaser leg (-2.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Broncos
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Similar to Vic Fangio’s squad, the Bills failed to capitalize in primetime against the Patriots. The market has reacted as a result, bumping the look-ahead line up from the Bucs as a three-point home favorite to -3.5.
Sure, Todd Bowles’ defense is surrendering the eighth-fewest EPA per play after a rough stretch to begin the season. But that number is a bit skewed after facing the likes of Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke over the last four games. Tampa Bay takes on Josh Allen & Co. this time around, and they’re posting the fifth-most EPA per dropback.
Plus, the Bucs’ secondary could be without cornerback Jamel Dean (concussion) and safety Jordan Whitehead (calf). Back Buffalo in a buy-low spot, and consider their Super Bowl futures () too.
Week 14 NFL Underdogs Bet: Bills +3.5 or better (PointsBet Sportsbook — placed at 4pm ET on Wednesday, Dec. 8)
Best Available Line: Bills
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Not only are the Rams still a top-five team in my NFL power rankings, but they’re also set up for a revenge spot after a home loss to the Cardinals in Week 4. There’s even Los Angeles +3 available at some shops after the look-ahead line was Arizona -2.5.
If Rams tailbacks Sony Michel and/or Darrell Henderson Jr. provide any efficiency on the ground, it’ll set up Matthew Stafford for some explosive play-action passes. Keep in mind, Arizona is yielding the league’s seventh-highest rushing success rate (SR).
- SR showcases whether a play is successful if a team gains:
- 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
- 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
- 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down
Look for this rematch to be a much tighter affair, and I’ll back Sean McVay & Co. to stay within a touchdown as a teaser leg.
Week 14 NFL Underdogs Bet: Consider Rams teaser leg (+8 or better)
Best Available Line: Rams